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BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

A detailed quarterly breakdown of federal voting intention at state level records Labor sagging in Victoria, but still on course for an election-winning swing in Queensland.

First up, please note that we have had the rare treat overnight of a state poll from South Australia, which you can read all about here.

Now to BludgerTrack, and the in-depth look at state-level federal voting intention trends that I lay on at the end of each quarter. First up, the vanilla weekly version of BludgerTrack, which is displayed at the bottom of the post, is inclusive only of the usual result from Essential Research. ReachTEL will have to wait until next week, because I don’t yet have all the data I need from it, and the new fortnightly YouGov/Fifty Acres poll won’t make the cut until I have more than one data point to work with. The only change worth noting on the headline numbers is that some of the edge has come off the recent spike to One Nation, although the overall pattern of recovery from a nadir around May is still evident. The Coalition makes a net gain of one on the seat projection, being up one in Victoria and Western Australia. Nothing new this week for leadership ratings.

There has been a very slight trend back to the Coalition over the past three months, but overall the impression has been of consistency on every measure, whether relating to voting intention or leadership. But as illustrated by the detailed quarterly breakdowns, which draw on this week’s breakdowns from Newspoll together with unpublished numbers from Essential, there has been quite a bit going on beneath this deceptively calm surface. Since the last such update three months ago, Labor has gone down 0.6% on two-party preferred, but up four on the seat projection – testament to the sensitivity of Queensland, where Labor’s 0.8% gain has translated into five seats.

It’s in the two biggest states that the Coalition’s modest improvement has been concentrated, particularly in Victoria, where Labor is down 2.7%. This raises the possibility that the heavy weather encountered by Daniel Andrews’ government is causing the party damage federally, which is going unnoticed due to Labor’s strong standing in the state in absolute terms (the swing since the last election is still bigger than New South Wales, off an already stronger base, the state’s limited strategic importance (while more than three times bigger than Queensland’s, the change on the previous quarter has only shifted the seat projection by one) and Labor’s sustained strength elsewhere. South Australia joins Queensland as the other state where Labor has gained ground, and they have tapered off only a little in Western Australia after what was probably an unsustainable peak at the time of the state election.

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747 comments

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ItzaDream
Guest

@ C@Tmomma
I really don’t think many voters actually care that much about SSM. They think in theory it should be a thing, when asked, but are they really that fussed that it isn’t, or their daily lives disturbed. And the implications of a plebiscite escape them – the cost, the hate unleashed, and the risk of a ‘Brexit outcome’, although we at least have compulsory voting. It is exactly as the Cons with or without Turnbull want it. Keep it in the too hard can, and keep kicking it down the road.

I am in a same sex relationship of three decades*, and not one family member, otherwise very loving and supportive and who treat ‘us’ no differently than if we were the other way around, truly, but not one has voluntarily spoken of SSM marriage support, nor would I believe change their vote on it. If asked , polled, oh yes, they’d say of course they support it.

PTMD is right. It’s a hard and long fight, as the Irish experience showed.

It should be a Labor Govt that gets it up; I want it to be a Labor Govt that gets it up, and I’m here to wait it out. We fought, and got bashed and arrested, for recognition of existence. We are married in the eyes of whomever it matters. We live a contented peaceful existence. Discrimination exists, often subtle, but they are the lesser. Whatever other status or benefits state recognised marriage would bring can wait afaiac.

*which of course puts me in an older generation, and I can’t speak for the younger ones, they have a different prism, and all power to them.

Dan Gulberry
Guest

Latest Grauniad Essential:

ALP 53
LNP 47

Still moving around MOE.

MrMoney
Guest

LATE TO THE DISCUSSION
re the The Q article when Cat says why carn’t they keep in their pants till they get home to misses, who’s to say the misses is up for it.
ms.20+ might be a 50 shades of grey type girl who is up for all sorts of activity ,where as I carn’t see q going home to maybe cuff and whip the misses of his children.
he’s getting something for her he’s not getting at home

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best
cud chewer
Guest

Alias,

I am reminded of the very first episode of Q+A which featured none other than the newly elected Kevin Rudd. Not long after talking about how he was led by evidence based policy he was asked about gay marriage. I don’t remember precisely what he said but essentially he squibbed it. If I had been in the audience I would have asked him if this were to do with evidence based policy, and was there evidence that the Christian Lobby would harm Labor if they did the right thing.

CTar1
Guest

Bemused

But like every occupation, there are always a few honest practitioners.

But not lawyers.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Dio,
Move one to the Darwin office and the other to Hobart?

Diogenes
Guest

Georgie
So whats the answer about two co-workers having an affair?

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Same Sex Marriage is going to have to do the time and hard yards to get through. The Disability sector took fifty years to get the NDIS. The only reason they did is because Bill Shorten was made Secretary for Disability (or whatever it was called) and used his considerable talent and passion to get stuff done, and got us the NDIS. I even know the grassroots disability community meeting with Bill where the idea was raised.

Yes, it is time for SSM, way past time, but until the policy of a free vote in the Labor Party and toe the line in the Coalitionc is changed, no-one can deliver SSM.

When, in 2020, JG’s policy changes which were passed by the National Conference, that makes a ‘Yes Vote’ compulsory, there is a major chance or almost a certainty it will be passed. So get to work electing an ALP government at the next Federal election if you want SSM.

confessions
Guest

Georgie:

That’s awesome that your HR dept is kicking goals and generally all-round achieving.

Congratulations.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Bemused
Was that you taking my name in vain earlier?
I do not say FPMJG can or cannot do things because she is female.

I say she was a target for misogyny because she was the first female PM, who happened to be Labor, as well as an atheist, unmarried in a relationship and childless and from South Australia instead of Qld. She also replaced a male PM in ways which have always been acceptable when done by a man. (Somehow it is verboten for a female to do anything like replacing a man for any reason.)
Your opinion, driven by your fondness for Kevin Rudd, is different.

But I am calling misogyny when and where I see it and it is lit up by neon lights in the case of PMJG. None of your pontificating and attempt at reframing history will change that.
Nor is using too cute by half comments about me going to do anything other than prove my point. (Ditto for Confessions and others)

It is almost impossible to have a serious discussion about the Gillard government because you make it too uncomfortable to discuss anything about it here.
I have other places in which I can express those opinions without the inevitable happening, and so I do.

Georgie
Guest

In regards to EAP programs, my HR team is using an external provider (and has been for the past 13 years) to offer its services to our 1,000+ employees with great success. We all have received fantastic feedback from many employees and their family members (it available to employees and their families). The service is totally confidential and available 24/7.

confessions
Guest

It is blindingly obvious that even if a politician personally doesn’t regard marriage as an important or even worthwhile institution that that is absolutely no excuse whatsoever for opposing SSM laws for those many people

And people said the same thing about Rudd back in the day. Were you one of those who criticised him for taking an anti-marriage equality stance, or is your opposition firmly entrenched in the anti-woman position instead, thereby making you a honking great hypocrite?

bemused
Guest

georgie @ #732 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 11:31 pm

As a HR practitioner of 35 years experience it always pains me to hear the stereotype slurs about the HR role!

Based on experience, sadly.
But like every occupation, there are always a few honest practitioners.

Georgie
Guest

As a HR practitioner of 35 years experience it always pains me to hear the stereotype slurs about the HR role!

confessions
Guest

If you want to offer a coherent response to my comment I’ll happily respond.

I’ve given you a coherent response. If you can’t respond in kind that isn’t my problem.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

alias
Go tie a knot in it.
PMJG did everything to make same-sex couples equal under the law, not including marriage. She legislated everything possible that she could to ensure equal treatment under the law. She did not have a magic wand to deliver SSM, or didn’t you notice the vilification and obstruction she had to deal with 23 hours a day, 24/7/56?
Stop fkn whining.
No-one has got SSM through, just like PMJG couldn’t. So go on and weep about how Rudd, Turnbull and Di Natale couldn’t get it up when they had the chance to have a go.
I support SSM but I do not expect the whole ALP to die in a ditch poltically over it.
There are a lot more desperate causes that the ALP should fight to the death over before SSM, Medicare and Gonski being just two of them.

bemused
Guest

zoomster @ #728 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 11:19 pm

Alias
You really should take bemused to task – here he is, making psychological assessments of posters, and he definitely doesn’t have the qualifications to do that.

Pardon? Retract your lie please.

zoomster
Guest

Alias

You really should take bemused to task – here he is, making psychological assessments of posters, and he definitely doesn’t have the qualifications to do that.

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