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The Australian relates yet another 53-47 result from Newspoll, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote: the Coalition to 35% and Labor to 36%, with One Nation steady on 11% and the Greens, despite it all, up a point to 10%. Of personal ratings, only the following at this stage:

Mr Turnbull’s net satisfaction rating — the difference between those satisfied and those dissatisfied with his performance — deteriorated slightly from -23 points to -24 points over the past three weeks. In contrast, Mr Shorten improved his net satisfaction rating from -23 to -20 points in today’s poll, showing another improvement in his standing with voters since he slumped to -28 points in March.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 32% approval and up one on disapproval to 56%; Bill Shorten is respectively up one to 33% and down two to 53%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 44-31 to 41-33.

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John Reidy
Guest

From the G today ‘PM’s pitch as business rebounds. ‘

‘figures…which showed the best business conditions in more than nine years, but also showed an unexpected jump in labour costs’.
Why would that be unexpected? Isn’t that how modern capitalism is supposed to work, as opposed to classical 19c capitalism?.

Also probably posted elsewhere. ‘Turnbull’s legacy claim draws fire’. (delicious)
The not a conservative label by Turnbull means the right intend to eat his lunch.

briefly
Guest

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/11/theresa-may-first-year-brexit-europhobes-corbyn

Theresa May’s first year was awful. Her next promises far worse
Polly Toynbee

A year ago today Theresa May was anointed unopposed. What a wretched anniversary, marking an inert year in which absolutely nothing has been done for the country, and even less for her party as she squandered its majority. Beyond the monstrous nightmare that is the eight upcoming Brexit bills, the first of which is to be unfurled on Thursday, there is little in the pipeline either.

No wonder she calls on Labour for ideas. They can throw their fine fat manifesto to her across the dispatch box for her to take her pick. End student fees, the pay cap, the bedroom tax, unpaid internships and excessive top pay? Bring rail and energy back into public ownership, perhaps. Plenty to choose from in this popular cornucopia. Most prime ministers hit the deck running, brimming with policies. She has wasted the first year when a better prime minister would have seized their moment.

Consider what Tony Blair did in his first year: the Good Friday agreement signed; the national minimum wage and human rights acts passed; the Bank of England made independent; a £5bn windfall from privatised utilities; and devolution to the Scottish parliament and Welsh assembly begun, along with a London mayor. He stripped the House of Lords of most hereditary peers, brought in a Freedom of Information Act, lowered the gay age of consent, ordained the right to roam, and saved the Kosovans. There was much more in the pipeline, with benefits for families increasing hugely. Any one of those achievements would be totemic in hapless May’s wasted year.

briefly
Guest
Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

Turnbull could, using the fixed terms as the reason, tell the states to decide for themselves on half-Senate dates (which the can, even without his permission) and then go in the second half of 2019. This is extremely unlikely but fun to imagine.

cud chewer
Guest

Grimace, I’m reminded of this article..

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-may-be-forced-to-call-election-after-just-two-years-of-governing-20170612-gwpgcb.html

The problem for Mr Turnbull is a logjam of fixed-date state elections in 2018 and early 2019, and a constitutional requirement for senators who were elected to half-terms at last year’s double dissolution election to face voters again.

The Victorian election campaign will run from late October 2018 up to election day on November 24. South Australia, Tasmania and Queensland are also due to hold elections in 2018.

The 2018-19 Christmas holiday season rules out a federal poll, and NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian will campaign from late February to an election on March 23, 2019.

The latest possible date for a House of Representatives election is November 2, 2019, but the half-term for the Senate expires on June 30, with the latest date for a simultaneous House of Representatives and Senate election being May 18. Given the need for a minimum 33 day campaign, Mr Turnbull and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten would be forced to campaign through Easter and Anzac Day if that date was to be used and that is thought to be unlikely.

So unless Turnbull wants a separate half Senate election he’s going to have to go in April/May 2019, or around Aug/Sep 2018.

Personally I’m hoping he’s crazy enough to do the earlier date. The sooner Labor get back the sooner they can save billions of dollars being wasted on FTTN.

a r
Guest

Everyone is asleep. But Junior’s e-mails with Russia are now out for the world to see (presumably because NYT had a copy, so he published to steal their thunder):

Source: https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/884789418455953413
Also: http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/11/politics/trump-latest/index.html

His excuse for the whole thing is that he thought Russia was offering him legitimate “Political Opposition Research”. Doubt that will hold up.

Anyhow, and more importantly, when will SoaD be touring Australia again?

a r
Guest

poroti @ #783 Tuesday, July 11th, 2017 – 10:47 pm

Diogenes
Would nae have picked you as a SOAD fan but there ya go …………… I like your taste in music .

100% agree.

briefly
Guest

Grimace
Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 12:35 am
briefly @ #792 Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 12:02 am

The WA economy is shot, imo, as are State finances. If the Libs carry the can for these failures, they will lose a lot of seats in WA. They certainly deserve to. The Libs have taken WA for granted for many years…..

briefly
Guest

Grimace…the Libs know they have been thrashed on the ground in several elections…Victoria, Queensland, the Canning by-election and 2016 DD and in WA. But they are trying to get into gear. I for one do not underestimate them. We have to remember they have been very adroit over many years at communicating with Lib-positive voters. They are out of touch at the moment. But they will be trying to figure out how to respond. The Abbott shenanigans have not helped them, though, to be sure, everyone can now say that Rightist Revivalism is a no-goer.

grimace
Guest

briefly @ #792 Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 12:02 am

Grimace….
While the polls don’t yet show it, I expect that by the time of the next election, Federal Libs will be even less popular than their State counterparts were in March.

As much as I’d love to see it, it’s improbable. If the WA result (12% swing) was replicated federally, Labor would win 128 seats in the HoR.

grimace
Guest

Apologies for the double post.

grimace
Guest

briefly @ #792 Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 12:02 am

Grimace….
Porter knows he has a fight on his hands. Of course, he also has some advantages. Pearce is a huge seat with some very die-hard rural Lib+/or Nat booths. I think it’s a seat that needs a Labor candidate at the earliest opportunity. I guess I will be helping in Cowan but certainly hope to contribute in Pearce too.
I think we should take Pearce, Swan and Hasluck. Stirling is possible. Canning is feasible, (especially as Hastie is such an empty twit)….and, ya never know, Durack may also be winnable.
While the polls don’t yet show it, I expect that by the time of the next election, Federal Libs will be even less popular than their State counterparts were in March.

The next 2 years are a real danger for the L/NP, and it is a serious dilemma for them choosing when to go to the polls, they are stuck between going early to save some furniture, which will knock the HoR election out of sync with the half senate election, or holding on and risking serious adverse movement in the TPP due to slow burn from issues like Conski, penalty rates cut phase in, the NBN MTM debacle and electricity prices.

Manufacturing a DD trigger and pulling it would be crazy brave and I don’t feel it’s likely.

The polling is at ~47.5% this far out from an election, and Labor generally can realistically expect another more when the more disengaged voters start paying attention, and as we saw in the WA state election Labor’s campaigning does an excellent job of increasing the swing and making sure that it bites everywhere that matters.

The big unknown on the 2019(?) election will be the combined impact of social media and the decline of legacy media. Another Bludger commented recently that they felt social media would be totally dominant by the 2019(?) election and I agree, which combined with the continued decline of influence of legacy media and the Left’s demonstrated prowess and superiority in using the medium to campaign is a serious risk to the L/NP, who will have to develop a strategy to cover what has been major shortcoming in their campaigning.

grimace
Guest

briefly @ #792 Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 12:02 am

Grimace….
Porter knows he has a fight on his hands. Of course, he also has some advantages. Pearce is a huge seat with some very die-hard rural Lib+/or Nat booths. I think it’s a seat that needs a Labor candidate at the earliest opportunity. I guess I will be helping in Cowan but certainly hope to contribute in Pearce too.
I think we should take Pearce, Swan and Hasluck. Stirling is possible. Canning is feasible, (especially as Hastie is such an empty twit)….and, ya never know, Durack may also be winnable.
While the polls don’t yet show it, I expect that by the time of the next election, Federal Libs will be even less popular than their State counterparts were in March.

The next 18 months are a real danger for the L/NP, and it is a serious dilemma for them choosing when to go to the polls, keeping in mind the constraints of the half senate election.

briefly
Guest

Johnson makes a fool of himself, again…
Prominent Corbynista breaks for No-Brexit….

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/11/european-leaders-can-go-whistle-over-eu-divorce-bill-says-boris-johnson

The Labour leader is facing calls from some on his own side to put the issue of staying in the EU back on the table.

Manuel Cortes, general secretary of the TSSA union, which has helped fund Corbyn’s Labour and Momentum, used an article in LabourList to call for Corbyn to leave open the possibility of staying in the EU.

“Why should we confine ourselves to the second-rate option of EEA or EFTA membership when what we already have is something far better?” Cortes said.

“I can’t see how we win the hearts and minds of those who voted for Brexit by telling them that we should now enter into a new arrangement which, in exchange for a large fee, will allow the EU to make all the rules for us because we gave up our EU seat and ability to shape things.

“This is such a poor proposal, it beggars belief that some serious players within our movement are making the case for it. And may I remind you, no one voted to leave the EU to join a second-best European economic unit?

“The best Brexit option to put on the the table is one which says we stay put. I hope our party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, will be holding out that olive branch when he meets the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, this week. Anything lesser is to cede to a deal meaning Britain will be agreeing to taxation without representation. What serious tribune of the people can advocate that?”

This position was praised by Chuka Umunna, the Labour MP and former shadow business secretary, who said it was a “bold and important” move for Cortes to say Labour should forget single market membership and now argue to stay in the EU.

briefly
Guest

Grimace….

Porter knows he has a fight on his hands. Of course, he also has some advantages. Pearce is a huge seat with some very die-hard rural Lib+/or Nat booths. I think it’s a seat that needs a Labor candidate at the earliest opportunity. I guess I will be helping in Cowan but certainly hope to contribute in Pearce too.

I think we should take Pearce, Swan and Hasluck. Stirling is possible. Canning is feasible, (especially as Hastie is such an empty twit)….and, ya never know, Durack may also be winnable.

While the polls don’t yet show it, I expect that by the time of the next election, Federal Libs will be even less popular than their State counterparts were in March.

grimace
Guest

briefly @ #788 Tuesday, July 11, 2017 at 11:19 pm

Grimace
Tuesday, July 11, 2017 at 9:41 pm
There is no sign that Porter expects to vacate Pearce. On the contrary, he’s already campaigning to hang on.
Goodenough is a waste of space, but he can finance his own campaign. In an election where the Liberals are expected to lose seats, it’s very unlikely anyone will emerge to threaten his pre-selection.

I’m in his electorate and have signed up to his email and Facebook. I’m also on his VIP* list, and have been a regular correspondent over a number of years. The same people who did the Fair Go website are responsible for Porters’ social media presence and I really hope Pearce is a targeted seat at the next federal election so I can get out and campaign against him.

The uptick in electronic correspondence from Porter does suggest his reelection campaign has started, and it really is a poor effort. The “coffee with Christian” efforts that he has been putting in, with recently increasing frequency, are all in the middle of the day and during the working week. There has been nothing I’ve seen later on weeknights or on the weekend.

* Very impertinent pest

swamprat
Guest

Torchbearer

“Australia didn’t bother to attend.”

No need to attend if the US was there.

Torchbearer
Guest

Postcard from Kazakhstan…
Went to World Expo-Future Energy in Astana yesterday. 122 countries from China, US, UK, Germany, Russia to Palau, Jamaica and the Vatican displaying the latest initiatives towards a carbon free future, and the industrial and commercial opportunity of their countries. And not just solar and wind, but geothermal, biofuels, nuclear fusion, space energy, graphene….the world, everyone, are moving on, and not a mention of coal or gas anywhere.
Australia didn’t bother to attend.

briefly
Guest

Grimace
Tuesday, July 11, 2017 at 9:41 pm

There is no sign that Porter expects to vacate Pearce. On the contrary, he’s already campaigning to hang on.

Goodenough is a waste of space, but he can finance his own campaign. In an election where the Liberals are expected to lose seats, it’s very unlikely anyone will emerge to threaten his pre-selection.

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