Menu lock

BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor

A bit of a fillip for Labor in the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and also for Bill Shorten whose net approval rating has edged ahead of Malcolm Turnbull's.

There’s a fair bit going on under the hood in BludgerTrack this week, which is why it’s taken so long. The bias adjustments and weightings have been recalibrated, and I’ve brought the two results so far from YouGov into the model. I’m not sure which of these is responsible, or whether it’s just because of two strong results for Labor from Newspoll and Essential, but there’s been a fairly noticeable bump to Labor on two-party preferred along with a net gain of two on the seat projection, with one gain in apiece in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia balanced by a loss in Western Australia. A drought on leadership ratings has also ended with two sets of results from Newspoll and Essential, the effect of which is that Bill Shorten has now poked ahead of Malcolm Turnbull on net approval, though not preferred prime minister.

We recommend

From around the web

Powered by Taboola

444 comments

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
John Reidy
Guest

This is an excellent article from the New Yorker on Trump supporters in Colorado (a nominally Democrat state).
How Trump Is Transforming Rural America | The New Yorker via NextDraft
http://nxt.fm/2uwnvrz

A comment on support for him, in the face of latest events
“The calculus seemed to have shifted: Trump’s negative qualities, which once had been described as a means to an end, now had value of their own. The point wasn’t necessarily to get things done; it was to retaliate against the media and other enemies”.
Also
“But the lack of legislative accomplishment seems only to make supporters take more satisfaction in Trump’s behavior. And thus far the President’s tone, rather than his policies, has had the greatest impact on Grand Junction”.

After reading this, I think the story (and I mean story), that Trump Jnr was caught in a Democrat trap will be believed.

It is hard to think of a killer blow that could take down Trump, the Democrats mustn’t take the mid-terms and the next presidential campaign for granted.

frednk
Guest


Aqualung
Tuesday, July 18, 2017 at 5:16 am

From the Essential poll. 6% of respondents had a favourable view of Kim Jong-un. Now we know who Kim Jong-Turnbull was addressing yesterday.

A sure indication that a larger percentage have no idea who he is.

Socrates
Guest

Morning all. Our medical system rates #2 in the world so why do the Libs hate it so much?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-17/australian-healthcare-ranked-second-best-in-developed-world/8716326

“I have good numbers”. Trump craves respect but he is doomed to not get it.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-17/donald-trump-says-record-low-approval-rating-not-bad/8714012

Aqualung
Guest

From the Essential poll. 6% of respondents had a favourable view of Kim Jong-un. Now we know who Kim Jong-Turnbull was addressing yesterday.

mari
Guest
a r
Guest

alias @ #416 Monday, July 17th, 2017 – 11:06 pm

It’s like saying that if a few Samsung handphones catch on fire, then Samsung phone users should be entirely relaxed because the number of people affected thus far is tiny and therefore the risk your phone will fry the side of your face is miniscule.

That’s actually pretty accurate. There have been iPhone and Macbook battery fires too, but you don’t see anyone (and in particular, Aussies) rushing to ditch their iDevice for fear that it will spontaneously combust. The risk of that actually happening is statistically miniscule, and most people rightly don’t care.

Arguing that statistically disproportionate fear of terrorism is justified is…pretty much exactly what terrorists want.

briefly
Guest

I watched Q&A (for a change)…not bad, really.

Steve777
Guest

When you write your tax return in HEX you have written too much assembler code. If you know what assembler code is your too old to write programs.

Well I have turned 40 since I started posting on PB.

Question
Guest

Grimace,
I usually have 1 streaming service at a time. That is between $10 and $15(for the Foxtel pack I want) a month. Then I have a PVR to record free to air (skipping adds is a minor chore). What with Youtube that gives me more than enough. Very occasionally I will hire a new release movie from one of those machines which are half the price of renting online. So about $15 per month and totally legit : )

BTW, I can even watch MasterChef on a PVR. You just start watching the recording when the show is almost over and with the x1.3 speed and skipping through the repititions and adds I can watch a whole show in about 15minutes : )

Steve777
Guest

Apparently Foxtel has gone down. During biggest show of the year Game of Thrones.

Renewables strike again.

Steve777
Guest

Drove back from the Central Coast tonight and caught the early part of Q&A on ABC News Radio. Matt Canavan was dominating, talking crap as usual. I decided to switch over to Late Night Live.

grimace
Guest

question @ #429 Monday, July 17, 2017 at 11:37 pm

I am probably going to get FoxtelNow for a few months(yeah, I know). I’ll wait a while so I can binge watch (and avoid the rush currently crashing their servers). I also want to check out Westworld and True Detective.

Get yourself a VPN client, that will give you access to Hulu (US), Amazon Prime (US) and any international Netflix service you choose. Between those services and bit torrent, you’ll shudder at the money you have previously wasted on Foxtel.

guytaur
Guest

Goodnight everyone

grimace
Guest

john boy @ #428 Monday, July 17, 2017 at 11:36 pm

MTM.. I like that Grimace

To clarify, MTM is actually Mixed Technology Mode (to reflect the FTTx, HFC, wireless and satellite NBN under the Liberals).

Question
Guest

I am probably going to get FoxtelNow for a few months(yeah, I know). I’ll wait a while so I can binge watch (and avoid the rush currently crashing their servers). I also want to check out Westworld and True Detective.

JOHN BOY
Guest

MTM.. I like that Grimace 🙂

grimace
Guest

Per my post above MBM = MTM (Malcolm Turnbull’s mess)

grimace
Guest

Over in the West there were several articles in the dead tree edition of the West which were very critical of the parts of the NBN which are not FTTP. Also, according to my dad who is an avid ABC listener the non FTTP NBN was covered this morning on one of their shows and the anger levels of the callers was running high.

I very much hope this is the beginnings of traction under the campaign to highlight the appalling vandalism that the L/NP has inflicted on 70% of the country with their second rate MBM NBN – hopefully to become known as Malcolm Turnbull’s Mess.

JOHN BOY
Guest

Thanks William.. been away 12 days, lost track.

wpDiscuz