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BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor

A bit of a fillip for Labor in the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and also for Bill Shorten whose net approval rating has edged ahead of Malcolm Turnbull's.

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There’s a fair bit going on under the hood in BludgerTrack this week, which is why it’s taken so long. The bias adjustments and weightings have been recalibrated, and I’ve brought the two results so far from YouGov into the model. I’m not sure which of these is responsible, or whether it’s just because of two strong results for Labor from Newspoll and Essential, but there’s been a fairly noticeable bump to Labor on two-party preferred along with a net gain of two on the seat projection, with one gain in apiece in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia balanced by a loss in Western Australia. A drought on leadership ratings has also ended with two sets of results from Newspoll and Essential, the effect of which is that Bill Shorten has now poked ahead of Malcolm Turnbull on net approval, though not preferred prime minister.

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444 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 53.0-47.0 to Labor

  1. citizen

    Still paywalled but this is the short version:

    Lib MP ‘off the reservation’
    4:37PMROSIE LEWIS
    Craig Kelly’s claim that renewable energy will kill people this winter has been rubbished by his Liberal colleagues.

  2. Boerwar

    BK
    Hmmmmmmm….

  3. Boerwar

    C
    A few of the wiser heads may have cottoned onto some inconvenient truthes:
    1. Poor people die because they are poor.
    2. Penalty rate cuts were making people poor.

  4. kakuru

    Boerwar – Just read it. Not sure I totally agree. It’s true for around 50 years in the mid-3rd century there was a very high turnover of Roman soldier-emperors. But some of these emperors were highly skilled – like Claudius II, and especially Aurelian (who unified the empire, defeating two breakaway Roman states). Then under Diocletian the empire pretty much recovered militarily. Diocletian and Galerius even made huge inroads against Rome’s foreign enemies, especially the Persians.
    I think the rot set in because of the Gothic wars. A potentially peaceful settlement of Goths in Roman territory was botched, setting of a hugely destructive war. The Roman legions could have won – they were let down by their commander, the Emperor Valens. Rome’s defeat at the Battle of Adrianople was a turning point. After Adrianople, the new emperor Theodosius I did his best to restore the army to its previous strength, but allowed himself to be lulled into two civil wars, against usurpers that he could have reached an agreement with. Theodosius won both wars, but depleted the army to dangerous levels. After Theodosius’ unexpected death, the empire was inherited by his pissweak sons, Arcadius and Honorius.

  5. Barney in Go Dau

    bk @ #299 Monday, July 17, 2017 at 5:50 pm

    boerwar @ #298 Monday, July 17, 2017 at 5:48 pm

    BK
    My head hurts.
    How do you pronounce ‘Potatocracy’?

    Spudocracy?

    Will they use Spud guns in lieu of plastic bullets? 🙂

  6. Diogenes

    Why does Dr Who have to be a Dr? Isn’t that elitist? Is (s)he even a doctor and if so what of?

  7. Barney in Go Dau

    diogenes @ #308 Monday, July 17, 2017 at 6:05 pm

    Why does Dr Who have to be a Dr? Isn’t that elitist? Is (s)he even a doctor and if so what of?

    Maybe it’s not a title but an actual name. 🙂

  8. Boerwar

    Dio
    ‘Mr Who’ or ‘Ms Who’ does not quite cut it.

  9. Boerwar

    K
    The best explanation is probably a complicated one rather than putting things down to one reason.
    One mind game is to turn it around: ‘Why the Roman Empire Should have Lasted and Lasted and Lasted.’

  10. John Reidy

    Keane as expected had an article in today’s Crikey on the encryption announcement in Friday.
    Inferring what was said, as we know there was no detail; the proposal is to have software running on every device that copies and forwards text before it is encrypted, and presumably also read text received after it is decrypted.

    This is how he can say there is no “backdoor” in the communication . Presumably it would only be enabled in the event of a warrant or some other legal process, and with the assistance from the device manufacturers to embed the capability in the device.
    This does sound similar to the Clipper Chip proposal I posted yesterday (an initiative of the NSA in the early nineties).

  11. lizzie

    Barney

    Maybe it’s not a title but an actual name.

    You’ve reminded me that Beyonce, of whom I know very little, has called one of her twins ‘Sir something’. IMO quite batty.

  12. citizen

    Turnbull seems to be preoccupied (in various ways) with terrorists, including a well known person in his own party who is terrorising him.

    Some day he may turn his attention to matters that the vast percentage of the population feel are actually important. Then again, he may not until it is too late.

  13. lizzie

    Ric Smith, a former Defence Department head who conducted a homeland and border security review for the Rudd government in 2008, said it was critical that there be no changes to the legislation that governs the agencies as statutory authorities and that they not be folded into government departments.

    Agencies were sharing information well now, he said. The biggest issue they faced is the need for IT systems to be upgraded so that classified information could be better shared. That cost money and would not be solved by creating a super-portfolio with one minister at the top.

    “Just what would be gained from doing this isn’t clear to me,” he said.

    That was the general view among former intelligence officers.

    That’s fine, but if he is to persuade Australians of his overhaul, he will need to match very specifically the merits of change to the evolutions in threats.

    Otherwise this risks looking like action for action’s sake – or worse, for politics.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/malcolm-turnbull-needs-to-explain-why-hes-shaking-up-a-national-security-system-that-is-working-20170717-gxczcz.html

  14. confessions

    William in today’s Crikey writing about who is likely to be Ludlam’s successor, in the event Steele-John makes good on his word and declines the likely opportunity resulting from a recount:

    Reports on the weekend mentioned party convenor Christine Cunningham as a likely starter, and the wording of Steele-John’s announcement suggests he may be up for the job if he can win it fair and square.

    The party’s state parliamentary contingent includes two with substantial experience (Robin Chapple and Alison Xamon), two recent arrivals (Tim Clifford and Diane Evers), and former members who might be looking to reactivate their careers (notably Lynn MacLaren, who narrowly failed to win re-election in March).

    However, party insiders say it will be hard to look past Kate Davis, a solicitor for a tenants’ rights organisation who ran last year in the federal seat of Fremantle.

    More about Kate Davis here:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-04/greens-fremantle-election-candidate-starts-campaign/7222074

    But apart from that the Greens appear to be in freefall, with a leader who is incompetent and the party finding itself consistently out-played by Shorten Labor on just about every issue the Greens spent the last 7 years building their policy reputation on. Tricky Dicky looks mean and tricky and the treatment of Rhiannon just underscores that perception.

    They need to find an alternate leader who at least behaves like he is fully behind the Greens policy platform, but unfortunately the one alternative leader who was policy smart, electorally appealing, and had the runs on the board just resigned.

  15. shiftaling

    Could Turnbull simply be giving Dutton enough rope?

  16. lizzie

    Greg Jericho‏Verified account @GrogsGamut · 4h4 hours ago
    Imagine living your whole life to be PM only to be subservient to Peter Dutton when you get there

    #
    Chuckle.

  17. alias

    More like giving him enough prestige – in his own mind – to keep him happy.

  18. confessions

    Dan G:

    Disappointed. I was hoping Rowe would take the absolute piss out of Malcolm’s suited, boots on the ground, gas-masked, armed to the teeth soldiers being used as props for a news conference.

  19. zoidlord

    LNP a slave of their own.

  20. TPOF

    confessions @ #324 Monday, July 17, 2017 at 6:53 pm

    Dan G:
    Disappointed. I was hoping Rowe would take the absolute piss out of Malcolm’s suited, boots on the ground, gas-masked, armed to the teeth soldiers being used as props for a news conference.

    I don’t think Rowe could make it look more ludicrous than the real thing.

  21. Dan Gulberry

    tpof @ #326 Monday, July 17, 2017 at 6:57 pm

    I don’t think Rowe could make it look more ludicrous than the real thing.

    Exactly. Beyond parody.

  22. confessions

    LOL!

    The Shovel
    UPDATE: Masked men have demanded $10mil for the return of our PM. So far $26.50 has been raised.

    https://www.facebook.com/TheShovelAU/photos/a.336890213063609.79278.298227226929908/1394740937278526/?type=3&theater

  23. citizen

    Confessions
    Monday, July 17, 2017 at 6:53 pm
    Dan G:

    Disappointed. I was hoping Rowe would take the absolute piss out of Malcolm’s suited, boots on the ground, gas-masked, armed to the teeth soldiers being used as props for a news conference.

    Rowe just has too much material to work with.

  24. confessions

    TPOF:

    Perhaps. But Rowe, with his so-much-more-to-see cartoons would’ve given us all that ridiculousness, and so much more!! *grins*

  25. BK

    Shorten should undertake to restore our country to a normal functioning democracy upon his election.

  26. confessions

    Shorten should undertake to restore our country to a normal functioning democracy upon his election.

    Make Australia Sane Again!

  27. Diogenes

    Steve Price just said on The Project that Dutton getting Homeland Security tomorrow is mostly about keeping Dutton on side with Turnbull.

  28. C@tmomma

    Shorten should undertake to restore our country to a normal functioning democracy upon his election.

    We should then lend him out to the USA and Britain.

  29. CTar1

    Dio

    [Steve Price just said on The Project that Dutton getting Homeland Security tomorrow is mostly about keeping Dutton on side with Turnbull.]

    Some one must have worked hard to get Steve Price to understand that.

  30. confessions

    Dio:

    I think that goes without saying.

  31. poroti

    Diogenes
    Amazing what Truffles will do to put his arse on the throne. Totally screw the NBN and hobble the nation’s progress and now give someone like Dutton such power.Well not so much amazing as a clear demonstration of the sort of person he is.

  32. guytaur

    Good Lateline tonight. Ex Police Commissioner of Vic. Christine Nixon and Richard Marles MP. Are guests

  33. Desert Qlder

    Mark Riley said the government will be looking for a national security ‘reset’, at the conclusion of his report tonight.

  34. confessions

    After last night’s reminiscing I wonder how Mod Lib is liking these Turnbull apples?

  35. citizen

    If Turnbull is making a special effort to get Dutton on side, then he will need to consider ways to placate Bishop, Brandis, Keenan, Payne and Pyne who stand to lose in various ways.

    There’s no win-win in this one.

  36. BK

    citizen @ #343 Monday, July 17, 2017 at 7:36 pm

    If Turnbull is making a special effort to get Dutton on side, then he will need to consider ways to placate Bishop, Brandis, Keenan, Payne and Pyne who stand to lose in various ways.
    There’s no win-win in this one.

    It will be a win-lose-lose-lose-lose-lose situation. And so very deftly handled!

  37. Jack A Randa

    Re Rome: I gather that one of the reasons they didn’t last forever is that the “barbarians” got more numerous and stronger. Mr Gibbon said they got a bit soft and pacifist when they went Christian, and internal fighting and reliance on mercenaries didn’t help, and they never did settle on a defensible border, but if your adversaries get stronger and stronger something eventually has to give. I think you were hinting at that, Bw?
    Re The Doctor. He (now she) is a doctor because he (now she) fixes things, including, sometimes, people. Simple. As Bill said recently, a sort of universal policeperson.

  38. Doyley

    Good evening all,

    It will be interesting to see if those ministers who will lose some of their responsibilities and thus power as a result of the Dutton shuffle will walk meekly into the night.

    Perhaps a few strategic leaks and a few detailed reports of cabinet discussions will flow over the next few days.

    It should also be considered that it will not only be ministers who lose out but also a number of senior public servants and security/ intelligence high rollers may well have their noses out of joint as they position for their spots on the revamped totem pole.

    Turnbull better believe this is all worth the drama that could unfold.

    Cheers.

  39. Doyley

    Citizen beat me to it again !

    Cheers.

  40. Boerwar

    J a R
    Yep. There were plenty of reasons floating around. Some worked for the survival of the Empire. Some worked for the fall.

  41. Boerwar

    D
    When Keenan was interviewed this evening he stumbled a bit but asserted strongly that the issue would be discussed in Cabinet… and beyond.
    He is a junior minister.
    Normally something like this would have been massaged from woe to go before being put to Cabinet.
    But with Turnbull you never can tell.
    PvO seemed to be hinting that the new ministry was in part getting ready for a reshuffle.
    If so, folks like Keenan, Brandis and Payne would have had to be massaged beforehand.

  42. Doyley

    Boerwar,

    You would expect proper cabinet process to be part of such a significant structural change in a mature well functioning government. What happened in the Turnbull government is anyone’s guess.

    I would be very surprised if Dutton gave a shit what Brandis et al thought and he would have simply told Turnbull what he wanted and left it up to him to deal with.

    How ” successful ” Turnbull has been in massaging egos will emerge over coming days.

    Cheers.

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