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Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor maintains its wide lead in an Essential Research poll that also gauges opinion on party polarisation, same-sex marriage and foreign leaders.

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Primary vote numbers will have to wait until the full report is published later today, but The Guardian reports that the latest fortnight rolling average from Essential Research has Labor maintaining the 54-46 two-party lead it opened after a one-point gain last week.

Among the other findings:

• Seventy-one per cent agreed both sides of politics should meet in some place called “the middle” more often; 45% said they would consider voting for a party that sat in it; and another 45% (or perhaps the same one) agreed that Australian parties were “too ideological”, compared with 37% who perceived no substantial difference between them (I assume these two were separate options to the same question, although this is unclear).

• Yet another question on same-sex marriage finds 61% supportive and 26% opposed, and 50% supporting a binding plebiscite compared with 23% for a vote by parliament and 9% for a non-binding plebiscite followed by a parliamentary conscience vote.

• Questions on foreign leaders found 51% had a favourable view of Justin Trudeau, which would be an impressive result for a Canadian Prime Minister on name recognition, never mind approval. Angela Merkel on 43% and Emmanuel Macron on 41% both rated higher than Theresa May on 33%. Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin both rated 16%, and 6% had somehow formed a favourable view of Kim Jong-un. All of these numbers will become more meaningful when we see the full report, which will hopefully also include results for unfavourable.

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1,344 thoughts on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

  1. matt31

    Reachtel already being reported on 5AA news here in Adelaide as Coalition gaining ground. Surprise surprise!

  2. Greensborough Growler

    Rex Douglas @ #1297 Thursday, July 20th, 2017 – 6:00 pm

    ‘I want the job’: 22-year-old Greens Jordon Steele-John to replace Scott Ludlam in Senate

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/i-want-the-job-22yearold-greens-jordon-steelejohn-to-replace-scott-ludlam-in-senate-20170720-gxf1q0.html

    Careful who you don’t vote for. You just might get them!

  3. Darn

    Greensborough Growler
    Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 5:54 pm
    Diogenes @ #1278 Thursday, July 20th, 2017 – 5:32 pm

    fess
    Interestingly, McCain has already said he wants to get back to work ASAP. I’m not sure how they will determine his mental competence to do so; it would be likely to fluctuate from day to day.

    I had a dear friend die from this a few years ago and the decline is heart breaking to witness. It’s not going to get better. McCain and his family need to pull up stumps and deal with the reality . He’s been a great American.

    Unfortunately that bastard of a thing is a death sentence, pure and simple.
    It is by far the most deadly type of brain tumour you can get. I wouldn’t wish it upon anybody.

  4. Steve777

    A 34% primary for Labor doesn’t look credible, given that at its nadir in the 2013 election, in the face of a screaming mainstream media boosting a screaming Opposition, Labor made 33.4%. It’s got to be a lot higher now.

  5. Greensborough Growler

    Darn @ #1303 Thursday, July 20th, 2017 – 6:06 pm

    Greensborough Growler
    Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 5:54 pm
    Diogenes @ #1278 Thursday, July 20th, 2017 – 5:32 pm

    fess
    Interestingly, McCain has already said he wants to get back to work ASAP. I’m not sure how they will determine his mental competence to do so; it would be likely to fluctuate from day to day.

    I had a dear friend die from this a few years ago and the decline is heart breaking to witness. It’s not going to get better. McCain and his family need to pull up stumps and deal with the reality . He’s been a great American.

    Unfortunately that bastard of a thing is a death sentence, pure and simple.
    It is by far the most deadly type of brain tumour you can get. I wouldn’t wish it upon anybody.

    can only concur!

  6. John Reidy

    Memo to the coalition
    “Renewable energy continues to enjoy widespread public support, with 75 per cent of respondents urging the government to support clean energy over coal.”

    Clean coal is not clean, and just in case you are having problems with English , it isn’t renewable.

  7. Darn

    Matt31
    Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 6:06 pm
    Reachtel already being reported on 5AA news here in Adelaide as Coalition gaining ground. Surprise surprise!

    That’s good. Let the Liberals and their cheer leaders deceive themselves. It can only work in Labor’s favour.

  8. matt31

    Important to remember that 34% primary for Labor (and 33% for the Coalition) excludes undecided voters.

  9. Barney in Go Dau

    diogenes @ #1289 Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 5:52 pm

    fess
    There is a mechanism for the POTUS (the 25th Amendment) but I don’t think there is one for a senator. I’m unaware of us having one in Australia for an impaired PM or MP.

    In Australia the person would just take a “leave of absence” and normally be given a pair especially if they are from a major Party.

    In the case of death, a bi-election or a Casual vacancy would occur depending on their position.

    If a Labor PM dies the deputy PM becomes PM.
    If a Liberal PM dies I would imagine the Liberal deputy leader would be sworn in as PM.

  10. Diogenes

    I know two people who survived more than ten years with glioblastoma but that happens less than 10% of the time.

  11. lizzie

    On the bonus to Foxtel:

    Mark Scott‏Verified account
    @mscott

    It was a most curious decision. If reach was the aim – why give the $ to a service not seen in 65% of homes?

  12. Diogenes

    Barney
    What if the PM was mentally impaired but wouldn’t step down?

  13. Greensborough Growler

    Diogenes @ #1312 Thursday, July 20th, 2017 – 6:16 pm

    Barney
    What if the PM was mentally impaired but wouldn’t step down?

    Look at Woodrow Wilson who was allegedly mentally incapacitated and managed for a long part of his tenure!

  14. Steve777

    Here’s another view of Sam Neil’s ‘Event Horizon’ flag:
    https://m.imgur.com/w2waP
    I don’t think that flag would work. If we wanted to incorporate the Aboriginal Flag (after getting First Nations’ permission to use it) we would need to go for a complete revamp.
    I would simply remove the Union Jack and shift the Federal star to balance it out.

    The movie was made in 1999 and was set in 2038. I find the premise that Australia will have changed its flag by then barely more credible than that there would be manned (or ‘personed’) missions to Neptune by then.

  15. grimace

    John Reidy
    Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 6:00 pm
    Evening all.
    Briefly, Grimace are there any figures on the breakdown of PHON, preferences in WA.
    I am sure Labor has a plan to appeal to them.
    ****************************************************
    IIRC, William responded to one of my posts on this saying preferences split 44% to Labour and 56% to Liberal for PHON preferences.

  16. mimhoff

    Maybe Scotland and England will eventually un-unite and then there won’t be a Union Flag any more.

  17. Barney in Go Dau

    diogenes @ #1312 Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 6:16 pm

    Barney
    What if the PM was mentally impaired but wouldn’t step down?

    The Government would elect a new leader and the numbers would be tested on the floor of the House.

  18. lizzie

    You might have heard that the NSW government will pay $262 million to buy back part of the Shenhua exploration licence in order to “protect” the black soil plains of the Liverpool Plains.

    Sydney shock jock Alan Jones has gone toe-to-toe with NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian over a decision to hand back more than $250 million to Chinese miner Shenhua.

    But it’s a complete furphy. They’ve only bought back areas that Shenhua wasn’t planning to mine anyway.

    They’ve spent almost a quarter of a billion dollars of taxpayer funds without fixing the problem. Shenhua plans to go ahead and destroy some of the best farming country in Australia for a coal mine.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-gladys-berejiklians-262-million-shenhua-deal-is-a-hoax-20170720-gxf7en.html

  19. a r

    shellbell @ #1277 Thursday, July 20th, 2017 – 5:30 pm

    Maybe the Reachtel primary of Lib 30 is a typo – should be 38???

    That would put Lib+Nat on 41 combined (and easily at 50+ 2PP). Seems extraordinarily high, doesn’t it?

  20. CTar1

    JR

    [“Renewable energy continues to enjoy widespread public support, with 75 per cent of respondents urging the government to support clean energy over coal.”]

    That SKY asked a question that gave this conclusion indicates that SKY don’t think clean coal is worth pursuing.

  21. Diogenes

    Barney
    What if an MP was incapacitated and refused to step down?

  22. citizen

    Morrison contradicts Turnbull over future direction of interest rates:

    The prime minister and treasurer appear at odds over the direction of interest rates, sending contradictory messages to borrowers.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/pm-treasurer-at-odds-over-interest-rates/news-story/a476fa23d4dea14373a57df0741a6908

  23. lizzie

    These trees take 90-100 years to produce hollows suitable for the gliders (and large parrots) to use as homes. The logging is also spoiling the attraction of the area, now very close to Healesville, for tourists. Wake up, Labor.

    aForestReprieve‏ @aForestReprieve · 13m13 minutes ago

    Logging of Hermitage Creek forests in #Toolangi must be stopped!
    @LilyDAmbrosioMP @DanielAndrewsMP’s @VictorianLabor
    https://youtu.be/JJZnKCxqRW0

  24. Greensborough Growler

    Diogenes @ #1321 Thursday, July 20th, 2017 – 6:35 pm

    Barney
    What if an MP was incapacitated and refused to step down?

    The same issue applies to Doctors.

  25. Greensborough Growler

    Just so we know the state of democracy.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DFIl1P3UQAA2cWf.jpg

  26. Greensborough Growler

    The smell of a State Conference does all sorts of interesting outburst. It seems like trouble right here in River City if Jaqui is to be believed.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DFKDNN8UMAE9eQ1.jpg:large

  27. zoidlord

    It’s a pity that Rex doesn’t spend his energy where it is needed or counts.

  28. Steve777

    1. If a Labor PM dies the deputy PM becomes PM. Yes, e.g. Curtin. Deputy becomes PM subject to Labor choosing a new leader (so when Curtin died, Forde was PM for 8 days but Chifley was chosen as the new leader and became PM.
    2. If a Liberal PM dies I would imagine the Liberal deputy leader would be sworn in as PM. In fact, the Deputy PM would become PM while the Liberals chose a new leader, as happened in 1939 and 1967. When Holt went missing, Jack NcEwen was PM for about 3 weeks until the Liberals chose John Gorton as leader.

    So if anything were to happen to Malcolm, we’d have PM Barnaby for a few weeks then Dutton, Bishop or whoever the new Liberal leader turns out to be.

  29. confessions

    Was Mal Colston in the situation Dio refers to of an MP being medically incapacitated and refusing to step down? I recall Colston making deals with the Libs and leaving Labor to sit as an indie Senator. Just hazy on the point at which his medical diagnosis kicked in.

  30. Barney in Go Dau

    diogenes @ #1321 Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 6:35 pm

    Barney
    What if an MP was incapacitated and refused to step down?

    My understanding is they apply to their Speaker for a “leave of absence” and if this is approved they are normally granted a pair so any votes are unaffected by the absence.

    I’m sure you’re aware the pairing of Members is a convention and not part of any procedure.

    Scott Ludlam took an extended leave of absence last year for health reasons.

    So the operations of Parliament is unaffected by these absences.

    If a “leave of absence” was not approved and a Member or Senator was away for a period of time then the Chambers have means of dealing with them.

  31. Steve777

    GG @6:59PM: that’s a great depiction of Liberal voters.

    An alternative along similar lines would be to have Big Business types holding the signs, while the plebs are looking the other way at someone screaming “Boats! Jihadis! Carbon Tax! Your right to be a bigot!”

    In fact, the signs held by the business types could read “Make them pay our taxes!”, “Cut their pay!”, “let us send their jobs overseas!”

  32. Barney in Go Dau

    diogenes,
    Just found this.

    Absence without leave

    A Member’s place becomes vacant if, without permission of the House, he or she does not attend the House for two consecutive months of any session of the Parliament.

    It seems the same provisions apply for the Senate.

    http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/House_of_Representatives/Powers_practice_and_procedure/Practice6/Practice6HTML?file=Chapter5&section=09&fullscreen=1

  33. mikehilliard

    A Member’s place becomes vacant if, without permission of the House, he or she does not attend the House for two consecutive months

    Most workers would be sacked after 2 days.

  34. briefly

    https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2017/jul/19/christies-sales-art-asia-brancusi-beckmann

    Things must be going well for the 1%…

    Demand among wealthy art lovers for high-value lots, including work by Constantin Brancusi and Max Beckmann, and record spending from Asian buyers boosted Christie’s auction house in the first half of the year.

    The number of artworks sold for more than £10m rose to 38 in the first six months of 2017, from 14 in the same period last year.

    The top lot was Brancusi’s La muse endormie, which sold in New York for $57.4m (£44.1m), while Beckmann’s Hölle der Vögel sold for £36m in London.

    Sales included the the Fujita collection in New York, the Givenchy collection in Paris, and the Lambrecht and De Balkany collections in London.

    Christie’s holds about 350 auctions a year, selling a range of luxury goods including fine art, handbags, jewellery and wine. Prices range from $200 to more than $100m, and in Hong Kong in May it sold a white crocodile skin Hermès Birkin handbag encrusted with 10.23 carats of diamonds for a record-breaking HK$2.9m (£293,000).

    In the first half of 2017 sales from auctions, online and private sales totalled £2.35bn, up by 14% compared with the same period a year earlier and boosted partly by growing demand from Asian clients.

    The chief executive of Christie’s, Guillaume Cerutti, said: “Christie’s continues to lead the auction market, characterised in the first half by increasing global demand and a stronger supply than 2016. With 35% of global spend, activity from Asian buyers has reached a new high, demonstrating Christie’s strength in this part of the world.”

    Spending grew across all regions, with American-based clients accounting for 35% of sales value, and those from Europe, the Middle East, Russia and India for 30%.

  35. Darn

    Diogenes
    Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 6:14 pm
    I know two people who survived more than ten years with glioblastoma but that happens less than 10% of the time.

    Dio

    If you are still around, do you know what kind of treatment they had to survive that long?

  36. citizen

    A 22-year-old disability advocate is set to become Australia’s newest and youngest senator, filling the Greens seat left vacant by Scott Ludlam.

    The Greens have endorsed Jordon Steele-John as Mr Ludlam’s replacement for the West Australian Senate seat.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/greens-22yo-to-replace-ludlam-in-senate/news-story/8967debce32917bc4b2f9b217c5cd911

  37. poroti

    Senator McCain’s illness is something I wish nobody had to suffer . But please also remember that McCain was leading the charge when it came to the US going to war from at least the Dubya days. He never saw a potential or actual war he did not like. Look at how many have died , the millions of refugees and the nations destroyed because of that approach this century.

    So let us not forget . I leave the last words to McCain himself. Singing “bomb bomb bomb,bomb bomb Iran.”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-zoPgv_nYg

  38. briefly

    John Reidy
    Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 6:00 pm
    Evening all.
    Briefly, Grimace are there any figures on the breakdown of PHON

    JR, both their PV and pref flows varied very widely. Labor gained only 28% of ON prefs in the booth where I worked while the seat-wide split was very close to 2:1 in favour of the Libs, for example. The ON PV in that seat was 9.8%. There were many seats that ON did not contest and even where they did stand candidates, their support was inconsistent. Likewise their pref flows was inconsistent. In Murray-Wellington, for example, Labor obtained 45.9% on the final ON pref distribution. Their vote will go all over the place.

  39. John Reidy

    Thanks Grimace and Briefly. So we probably can’t predict at all what the flow will be, especially not this far out from an election.

    Also Steve, re ‘flag’, we could become a Republic (even if we are all Elizabetheans) , but as you say the flag wouldn’t change.

    Now I think about Turnbull, and his flipping on this, isn’t there a principle involved, that we should have our own head of state?
    Isn’t that what is important, not that our current one has been around for a long time and it familiar.

    Sorry for the rant.

  40. phoenixRED

    Trump Investigated For Money Laundering As Special Counsel Looks At Russia Financial Ties

    Both the FBI and Special Counsel Robert Mueller are looking at the financial transactions between the Trump family, Trump associates, and Russians for potential money laundering.

    The reason why Trump won’t release his tax returns or details of his business dealings is that they would reveal that the financial roadmap of his ties to Russia. Mueller is investigating Trump’s finances, so it is up to Trump to decide whether or not he is going to fire the special counsel. The Russia pieces are coming together, and they paint a picture of a president that is bought and owned by Putin and Russia.

    If Trump’s businesses laundered money for Russia, it would be time to stop talking about impeachment and begin discussing prison.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/20/trump-investigated-money-laundering-special-counsel-russia-financial-ties.html

  41. zoomster

    Apologies. The Greens were sitting at around 10% at this stage of the cycle (September 2014). They got 10% at the election. So stagnation seems to be a better descriptor.

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