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BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Essential Research's recent results have driven an improvement in the Coalition's poll trend position, most evidently in Victoria.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a further narrowing in Labor’s lead this week on the back of weaker numbers from Essential Research, which provide the only new data point other than the Galaxy poll from Western Australia, which has no bearing on the national total. On the seat projection, the Coalition gains one in Victoria and three in ever-volatile Queensland, but loses one in Western Australia courtesy of Galaxy. Labor’s relative softness in Victoria, where a swing is actually now recorded in favour of the Coalition, was noted by me yesterday in an article for Crikey. This was based on calculations made before the latest numbers were added, which have caused Labor’s two-party total there to weaken still further – no doubt a tad excessively. I’m also not entirely confident about the extent to which the Greens are recorded as having fallen, since the trendline has dipped below any of the individual data points, which sometimes happens when there’s a sudden change. In other words, they’re down, but probably not by quite that much. No new results for leadership ratings this week.

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Blanket Criticism
Guest

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-05/martin-shkreli-convicted-on-fraud-charges/8777252

Oh God this news has made my week. The schadenfreude is so good it hurts.

a r
Guest
CTar1
Guest

Another “unless it’s overwhelmingly in the US’s favour” –

US officially tells UN it wants out of Paris climate deal

… the State Department said the U.S. will continue to participate in international meetings and negotiations on current and future climate change deals. The next meeting is in Bonn, Germany, in November.

Trump is β€œopen to re-engaging in the Paris Agreement if the United States can identify terms that are more favorable to it, its business, its workers, its people and its taxpayers,” the department said.

http://www.france24.com/en/20170805-us-donald-trump-officially-notifies-un-it-wants-pull-out-paris-climate-deal-cop-21

CTar1
Guest

Strange that they would even have them!

U.S. Army halts use of Chinese-made drones over cyber concerns

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-army-drones-idUSKBN1AK2C0

CTar1
Guest

No surprise –

More than six months into Donald Trump’s young presidency, optimism among his core supporters — and American voters at large — is starting to fade.

After Trump’s surprise victory in November, six in 10 American voters said they were mostly optimistic about his presidency. But that number slipped to 52% in March and 43% today — now 10 percentage points underwater, according to new polling this week from Quinnipiac University.

Indeed, a majority of registered voters (53%) now say they are mostly pessimistic about the next few years of Trump’s time in office.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/04/politics/trump-supporters-optimism-wear-off/index.html

Libertarian Unionist
Guest

I redid the quiz, took down the proportions and calculated the probability that someone responded 12/12 yes: 8.69 x10^-6

That is versus 0/12 yes: 0.000387

Evaluating the rest would be more involved, and I could also probably (in both senses of the word) deduce each of your specific answers based on your responses, given the variation in the truth probabilities.. but it’s getting late πŸ™‚

Night all!

briefly
Guest

poroti
β€œYou are as unique as a Broome pearl.”

…you must be a highly cultured bludger… πŸ™‚

JOHN BOY
Guest

Was that an echo I heard in here….

briefly
Guest

confessions
briefly:

Do you not speak English in your home?

..oh, plus that one too.

(Usually, I mutter to myself….unintelligibly)

Libertarian Unionist
Guest

I guess 75% is actually quite an unlikely outcome!

Puffy, The Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puffy, The Magic Dragon.

if I answer as married, I get 75%.

Libertarian Unionist
Guest

Fifity-farking-eight percent ordinary! I’m not happy with that. Must start teaching the boy espanol.

bemused
Guest
Fulvio Sammut
Guest

test

JOHN BOY
Guest

33%

Barney in Go Dau
Guest

[briefly
25%
]

Welcome to the club. πŸ™‚

Barney in Go Dau
Guest

[grimace
Questions from You Gov:

8. Generally speaking, do you think too many issues are being proposed for referendums, not enough, or it is about right?

Not enough issues are being proposed for referendums, and the people should be allowed to vote directly on more issues
The current balance is about right
Too many issues are being proposed for referendums, and Parliament should make more decisions itself
Don’t know

]

Thanks grimace,

This question stood out as being strange.

It seems the to me that the people writing the question don’t understand the difference between a referendum and a plebiscite.

Confessions
Guest

Russian President Vladimir Putin has stripped to his waist to brave the cold waters of a mountain lake as part of a three-day fishing and hunting trip in the Siberian wilderness.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-05/vladimir-putin-strips-down-yet-again-for-fishing-hunting-trip/8778174

No wonder Trump loves him so much πŸ˜€

Vogon Poet
Guest

The beast is as far as I know
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