Menu lock

Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The Coalition takes a hit in the latest voting intention reading from Essential Research, which also records solid support for anything on same-sex marriage other than inaction.

The Guardian reports Essential Research has Labor’s lead bouncing back to 54-46, after diminishing over recent weeks to 52-48 a week ago. The changes on the primary vote are rather striking by the standards of Essential’s fortnight rolling average, with Labor up three to 39% and the Coalition down two to a meagre 34% (UPDATE: Make that down one to 37% – that didn’t include the Nationals). The Greens are down a point to 9% and One Nation are steady on 8%. Essential’s monthly leadership ratings record Malcolm Turnbull up a point on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 46%, with Bill Shorten down one to 35% and down two to 42%, and Turnbull leading 41-27 to prime minister, unchanged on a month ago.

Other results related by The Guardian include 43% approval for a postal plebiscite on same-sex marriage, with 38% disapproving; 43% support for a parliamentary conscience vote, with 31% disapproving; 46% favouring a plebiscite in conjunction with the next election, with 34% disapproving; and 22% in favour of delaying a decision until after the next election, with 55% opposed. Forty-one per cent approved of Labor’s propose to impose a 30% tax rate on distributions from discretionary trusts, with 30% opposed. On Labor’s plans to overhaul the Fair Work Act, 39% rated that the existing system favoured employers compared with 12% for employees, and 29% who believed the interests of the two were balanced.

We recommend

From around the web

Powered by Taboola

714 comments

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Blanket Criticism
Guest
Well it looks like the current federal government has chosen the cross they’d like to be crucified on and I for one couldn’t be happier for them or our country. Let’s see how the two possible outcomes play out. The LNP try every dirty trick and tactic they can to engineer a no result in the postal vote, the postal vote is seen as illegitimate and Labor solidifies support in the upcoming election. The postal vote comes out as a yes and the LNP have a free-vote in which they reject marriage equality (more likely) and are accused of wasting… Read more »
cud chewer
Guest

briefly, you’d better bloody hope so because even if the poll is a train wreck that doesn’t matter to the bigots. All that matters to them is the idea that if you have a big enough campaign you can wreck the whole issue.

cud chewer
Guest

Roger, I agree about a professional opinion poll.
The question I’m asking is will this postal poll simply be a yes/no question or will the ABS attempt to make it scientific.

I’d say if the ABS doesn’t attempt to make it scientific then the purpose of the exercise will be clear before its even posted out.

On the other hand if the ABS does attempt to make it scientific, include matching questions and even weight the data at the end, that will also be contested and just create more cover for the usual suspects.

briefly
Guest

The High Court may save us from the LNP.

cud chewer
Guest
briefly
Guest

The Liberals are attempting to evade the requirement for an appropriation by the Parliament. This is an attempted repudiation of the Parliament and the Constitution. It is an attempt to rule in spite of the will of the Legislature rather than with its consent.

The plan to hold a sham plebiscite is nothing but a contempt of the legislative process.

I think the LNP will suffer very heavily for this. Who can trust them to govern according to the law? Who can trust them to exercise their duties? They have utterly disqualified themselves.

Norwester
Guest

political epitaph that is

Roger Miller
Guest

cud
If they wanted to do an opinion poll, they could do that a lot cheaper than $122m, and get a much more accurate result. It is not about a fair weighting but about skewing the result as much as possible. In the end it will only supply ammunition for further division, and delay the inevitable acceptance if marriage equality, because that is what it is designed to do.

Norwester
Guest

‘This is cousin Tony’
LOL – Actually more than LOL. MG’s epitaph I’m guessing.

Norwester
Guest

Is there footage of Matthew leaving the restaurant with a doggy bag? If it was me it’d be like yeah that whole crayfish and that unopened bottle – no, that one- and those thingys. But I obviously don’t share MG’s class. Just another meeting and meal with potential benefactors. Sad.

Walter E Plinge
Guest

Maybe it would be better if the labor party passed the Plebiscite in the senate and we would at least have people forced to vote and a better result than this postal rubbish. Or the independents !!!

CTar1
Guest

cc

I’m thinking they’ll go for the crude measure, just electorate.

The smarter they try to get the more likely a successful challenge is.

CTar1
Guest
Norwester
Guest

The whole exercise is a scam.

cud chewer
Guest

What I’m more concerned about is how they can gain a measure of how representative the sample is. To do this you need every form to be returned with information on age, gender and possibly a few other details. Otherwise you can never have an answer as to how selective the sample is or be able to do a fair weighting.

CTar1
Guest

BiGD

The only way they could do that would be to code the ballot papers with the electorate.

That would provide a huge extra burden when counting unless the process was fully automated.

They do it with our census returns.

And all that is required is one ‘marking’ that identifies the electorate the ‘vote’ form was posted to (no ID of individual needed).

Norwester
Guest

If they unleash a hate campaign, Malcolm Turnbull and his bigoted and gutless mates are going to own every relevant suicide and hate crime. Dreadful lack of leadership in an increasingly unequal society.

CTar1
Guest

Norwester

One way or another there will also be an advertising barrage – especially of the cashed-up views.

The Australian Christian Lobby will be right into it.

Barney in Go Dau
Guest

Excellent point CTar1.

The only way they could do that would be to code the ballot papers with the electorate.

That would provide a huge extra burden when counting unless the process was fully automated.

wpDiscuz