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YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50

YouGov's latest records primary support for the major parties lower than others, and finds strong support for both same-sex marriage and a plebiscite.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for Fifty Acres maintains the series’ established pattern of low primary votes for the major parties and strong minor party preference flows to the Coalition. There is a stable 50-50 two-party result derived from primary votes that would land it in the 52-48 to 53-47 range on 2016 preferences: 34% for the Coalition, down two; 32% for Labor, down one; 11% for the Greens, up one; and 9% for One Nation, up one.

Other findings from the poll are a 34-27 lead for Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, with an unusually high 38% preferring a “not sure” option; 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; 51% preferring a plebiscite on the matter, compared with 29% for a decision by parliament; 36% believing Turnbull’s position would be threatened by Coalition MPs crossing the floor on the matter, compared with 29% who thought otherwise; and 33% thinking referendums should be held more often, with 26% saying too many such proposals are being made of issues that should be left to parliament.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1005.

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zoidlord
Guest

US middle ship violated the sea apparently, things going to heat up, not just Climate Change.

cud chewer
Guest

Socrates. Simple principle. Avoiding the danage caused by the ‘debate’.

HC FTW 🙂

sprocket_
Guest

Tony Abbott has had some new promo photos done. It’s serious

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DG5idczUMAAqpYF?format=jpg&name=large

Socrates
Guest

Breaking News: Matthew Guy has admitted the Victorian Liberals have accepted money from the Australian mafia over many years in return for visas and political favours, and has resigned.
Source: Fakebook News

Just kidding. Matthew hopes this will all blow over after MacMillan is thrown under the bus. He has promised to crack down on investigative journalism when he becomes premier.

Socrates
Guest

Morning all. I am a little perturbed by those who wish to see the ME survey fail in the high court and the government look embarrassed. They need to be careful not to make political pawns out of ME advocates or they themselves will be damaged. Base it on a principle, or risk looking unprincipled.

cud chewer
Guest

High fives to Kevin!

Cuts through? Your inane drolleries are not even as memorable as P1’s strategic blunders. You’re about as likely to cut anything in a debate as pink fluff stolen from the Mardi Gras and glued to some small slowly rotating rubbery whirring thing.

Norwester
Guest

So while a serious nuclear threat looms in our region, we are sidetracked by theological arguments against a reform that has majority support. Turnbull looks awfully weak right now.

JOHN BOY
Guest

The MoE is about 3%, but I’m of the view that you shouldn’t get too hung up on the MoE, or as it should properly be called, the theoretical MoE.

Thanks WB, I like the theoretical MoE – gonna adopt this way of thinking now.

ItzaDream
Guest
briefly @ #1878 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:57 pm One author, Ishbel Addyman, varies from other biographers and claims that he was not a Gascon aristocrat, but a descendant of a Sardinian fishmonger and that the Bergerac appellation stemmed from a small estate near Paris where he was born, and not in Gascony, and that he may have suffered tertiary syphilis. She also claims that he may likely have been homosexual and around 1640 became the lover of Charles Coypeau d’Assoucy, a writer and musician, until around 1653, when they became engaged in a bitter rivalry. This led to… Read more »
briefly
Guest

Dream of Equality, bemused 🙂

JOHN BOY
Guest

I sense you might be missing the point that Confessions and I are old sparring partners.

Nah, as a lurker of 4 years before John Boy account spoke, I’ve noticed, lol.
It is the way to go – the ONLY sensible way for a Labor voter that is..

briefly
Guest

Greensborough Growler
briefly @ #1879 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:57 pm

One author, Ishbel Addyman, varies from other biographers

Not much has changed…specially the bit where rivalry is conducted by the exchange of satirical texts… 🙂

bemused
Guest

Goodnight all

Norwester
Guest

bemused @ #1889 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 10:08 pm

JOHN BOY @ #1875 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:54 pm

I am on a unity ticket with Confessions on this.

Ditto Bemused.

I sense you might be missing the point that Confessions and I are old sparring partners.

Well I guess we are talking about *unusual* marriages, so very apt really.

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler
briefly @ #1879 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:57 pm One author, Ishbel Addyman, varies from other biographers and claims that he was not a Gascon aristocrat, but a descendant of a Sardinian fishmonger and that the Bergerac appellation stemmed from a small estate near Paris where he was born, and not in Gascony, and that he may have suffered tertiary syphilis. She also claims that he may likely have been homosexual and around 1640 became the lover of Charles Coypeau d’Assoucy, a writer and musician, until around 1653, when they became engaged in a bitter rivalry. This led to… Read more »
Barney in Go Dau
Guest

Kevin,

If you’re still here.

Don’t you and William just work with the Primary numbers when you do your aggregates?

If so YouGov isn’t that far away from the other polls.

briefly
Guest

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/10/modern-slavery-uk-nca-human-trafficking-prostitution

The occurrence of slavery was raised a few days ago….it’s not at all a thing of the past.

bemused
Guest

JOHN BOY @ #1877 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 11:56 pm

As I scrolled up I just noticed that the YouGov poll is only 1005 — that’s a bluddy small sample … MOE????

yes.. I worry it will fuck with WB’s BludgerTrack trend…

It is not too bad for a national figure.
The MOE doesn’t decrease linearly but as the square of the sample size.
In other words, you have to go a lot bigger to make a lot of difference to the MOE.

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