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BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

A solid move to Labor in this week's reading of the poll aggregate, although its concentration in Victoria means it makes no difference to the seat projection.

New results this week from Newspoll, Essential Research and YouGov cause the BludgerTrack two-party reading to bounce back in favour for Labor, who did particularly well this week out of Essential. There was also a new set of Queensland numbers from Galaxy, which, together with the similar poll last week from Western Australia, means the model has fairly robust data to work off at present from each of the four largest states. Last week I warned against reading too much into a slump in the Greens’ national vote and a swing to the Coalition in Victoria, and that’s borne out on both fronts this week: the Greens are the big mover on the primary vote, such that Labor’s two-party gain comes largely in the form of preferences from them, and the pendulum now leans back the other way in Victoria, albeit that it’s still Labor’s weakest state in swing terms.

Despite the Labor surge, there’s no change on the seat projection, which is down to the fact that the Coalition did relatively well out of the Galaxy result from the crucial state of Queensland. This results in them picking up a seat there against the overall trend, cancelling out the solitary gain Labor made from its big two-party improvement in the strategic wasteland of Victoria. The Coalition are also up a seat in Western Australia and down one in New South Wales.

Newspoll and Essential both provided new sets of leadership numbers, which have yielded some slight change in what has been a remarkably static picture since the wake of last year’s election. The change is that both leaders have recorded an uptick on net approval, although Malcolm Turnbull has slightly widened his lead as preferred prime minister.

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CTar1
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UK

Islamist terror will threaten the UK for decades, the former head of MI5 has warned as the methods of radicalisation and attack continue to adapt.

Jonathan Evans said Britain was facing a “generational problem” seeing extremists energised by recent attacks like Westminster.

“We’re at least 20 years into this, my guess is that we will still be dealing with the long tail in another 20 years’ time – I think this is genuinely a generational problem,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/terror-threat-uk-isis-alqaeda-former-head-mi5-attacks-threaten-britain-for-decades-generational-a7889156.html

CTar1
Guest

Kenya – Live from BBC World News –

The Electoral Commission has announced Uhuru Kenyatta the winner.

CTar1
Guest

NZ – Since Arden became Labour leader –

National campaign chairman Steven Joyce says the Jacinda effect has jolted National as well as Labour.

“We’ve seen a big fundraising boost and a big boost in activity,” he said.

“There was a sort of sense that the election campaign wasn’t quite happening yet and then suddenly it’s happening.”

The Greens and New Zealand First have dropped as their soft vote has headed back to Labour

.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11902569

CTar1
Guest

Brandis would be right at home –

Snapchat’s parent company says the US messaging app has been registered with Russia’s technology regulator without its knowledge.

Snap told the BBC that the Roskomnadzor agency had unilaterally put it on its register of information distributors.

The move means Snapchat will be required to keep all messages for six months and make them accessible to the Russian security services.

Snap said it had no intention of complying with the rule.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40904552

CTar1
Guest

China on NK/US

In an editorial published by the Communist Party-run Global Times, the Communist Party said it will oppose any attempt at regime change in North Korea but will remain neutral if North Korea strikes America first.

The influential newspaper stated China “will firmly resist any side which wants to change the status quo of the areas where China’s interests are concerned”.

“The Korean Peninsula is where the strategic interests of all sides converge, and no side should try to be the absolute dominator of the region,” it said.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-11/north-korea-china-urges-calm-from-united-states/8799242

CTar1
Guest
Lord Haw Haw of Arabia Thanks for the Bob Brown opinion article. There is talk of boycotting the postal vote as a revolt against the petty and nasty delaying tactics of Turnbull’s extreme-right bully boys. But that would play into their hands. The best way to sideline them is for the postal vote to return a triumphant yes. If this vote proceeds, there may be a lot of nastiness, bigotry, hate and destructive accusation. This is nothing new for the LGBTI community. Ladies and gentlemen of Australia, let’s gird our loins. I, for one, am ready to take the bullies… Read more »
Lord Haw Haw of Arabia
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Lord Haw Haw of Arabia

CTar1
Norwester

And in Federal Politics as well.

The fact that Bruce Billson was getting paid $75,000 dollars salary by a small business franchise lobby group while Minister for Small Business seems to have just been shrugged of as ‘they all do it’.

The Liberals morals are certainly flexible.
****************************************
There is no such thing as ‘Liberals morals’…

Lord Haw Haw of Arabia
Guest
Lord Haw Haw of Arabia
CTar1
Guest

Trump renovating the White House …

http://www.reuters.com/news/picture/white-house-under-renovation-idUSRTS1BDE2

A golf course on the lawn next?

CTar1
Guest

Just to keep the number of confrontation hot spots moving along –

India’s military has increased operational readiness along the eastern Indian border with China, sources said, as neither side shows any sign of backing off from a face-off in a remote Himalayan region near their disputed frontier.

Indian and Chinese troops have been embroiled in the seven-week confrontation on the Doklam plateau, claimed by both China and India’s tiny ally, Bhutan.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-china-idUSKBN1AR191

CTar1
Guest

Norwester

And in Federal Politics as well.

The fact that Bruce Billson was getting paid $75,000 dollars salary by a small business franchise lobby group while Minister for Small Business seems to have just been shrugged of as ‘they all do it’.

The Liberals morals are certainly flexible.

CTar1
Guest

We should all be reassured that Trump has been thinking of a nuclear war for a long time.

No wonder HRC didn’t win the election.

Donald Trump’s nuclear fixation – from the 1980s to now

In 1984 – at the height of the Cold War – Mr Trump even told a Washington Post interviewer he wanted to be put in charge of US-Russia nuclear arms negotiations.
“It would take an hour-and-a-half to learn everything there is to learn about missiles,” Mr Trump said. “I think I know most of it anyway.”

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40879868

Norwester
Guest

CTar1 @ #701 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 11:20 pm

That it’s even a question shows the state of our state and federal politics at the moment.

It shines a hell of a spotlight on the Victorian Liberal Party.

What a spineless, valueless, duplicitous, immoral bunch of villains.

CTar1
Guest

UK

The former chief of staff to Brexit Secretary David Davis has said leaving the EU will be a “calamity for our country”.

James Chapman claimed two cabinet ministers had expressed interest in a new centre party to oppose Brexit.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-40897927

CTar1
Guest

That it’s even a question shows the state of our state and federal politics at the moment.

The Liberal Parties ‘proud’ outcome of John Howard and Nick Minchin’s approach to politics.

That was the worst week of Matthew Guy’s stint as Victorian Opposition Leader.

But is it enough to end his tilt for the Premier’s job?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-12/matthew-guy-survives-his-worst-week-as-opposition-leader/8799494

Norwester
Guest

Time for the more philosophical late evening / WA /OS shift.

CTar1
Guest

Just another day on PB ends with bemused complaining about other posters saying his behaviour is not acceptable.

“I see the gangs all coming together again.”

Even one poster is a ‘gang’ (sorority / coven) now.

“I mocked Adrian for his stupidity and lying”.

Yep that’s right –

Mocking
Adj.
1. derisive, gibelike, jeering, mocking, taunting abusing vocally; expressing contempt or ridicule

You called Adrian a stupid liar.

Barney in Go Dau
Guest

Puff, I liked this tweet on the Denise Allen feed.

The lead in to the survey question,

Ben Jenkins‏Verified account @bencjenkins Aug 9
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Dunno what the *exact* wording of the plebiscite q should be, but it should definitely start “Not that it’s any of my fucking business, but”

Norwester
Guest

The shoddiness is part of the plan. Put people off participating.

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