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BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

A solid move to Labor in this week's reading of the poll aggregate, although its concentration in Victoria means it makes no difference to the seat projection.

New results this week from Newspoll, Essential Research and YouGov cause the BludgerTrack two-party reading to bounce back in favour for Labor, who did particularly well this week out of Essential. There was also a new set of Queensland numbers from Galaxy, which, together with the similar poll last week from Western Australia, means the model has fairly robust data to work off at present from each of the four largest states. Last week I warned against reading too much into a slump in the Greens’ national vote and a swing to the Coalition in Victoria, and that’s borne out on both fronts this week: the Greens are the big mover on the primary vote, such that Labor’s two-party gain comes largely in the form of preferences from them, and the pendulum now leans back the other way in Victoria, albeit that it’s still Labor’s weakest state in swing terms.

Despite the Labor surge, there’s no change on the seat projection, which is down to the fact that the Coalition did relatively well out of the Galaxy result from the crucial state of Queensland. This results in them picking up a seat there against the overall trend, cancelling out the solitary gain Labor made from its big two-party improvement in the strategic wasteland of Victoria. The Coalition are also up a seat in Western Australia and down one in New South Wales.

Newspoll and Essential both provided new sets of leadership numbers, which have yielded some slight change in what has been a remarkably static picture since the wake of last year’s election. The change is that both leaders have recorded an uptick on net approval, although Malcolm Turnbull has slightly widened his lead as preferred prime minister.

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Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

This is a hotel room. Do U know which one? This info can help police solve a child sexual abuse case. Tell us on https://www.europol.europa.eu/stopchildabuse/can-you-help?image=9386

Puff, the Magic Dragon. @ #695 Saturday, August 12th, 2017 – 12:10 am

https://twitter.com/Europol/status/895978347263668224

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Hey @TurnbullMalcolm @realdonaldtrump You two lead the charge into an insane nuclear war & take all your supporters with you. YOU FIRST. pic.twitter.com/B0yIBZXkh0— Denise Allen (@denniallen) August 11, 2017

Question
Guest

Has Swamprat posted about what a homophobe Bob Brown is since he joined Bill Shorten in crapping on the process but promising to campaign for ‘yes’?

Confessions
Guest

It’s Time:

Entsch is off on a parliamentary junket for 3 months so his vote can’t be counted on during that time.

Dean Smith talked the talk but failed when it came to brass tacks. Ditto Wilson and Zimmerman. I guess at the end of the day actions speak larger than words, and the Liberal crop of so called moderates have failed when it mattered.

Barney in Go Dau
Guest

[cud chewer
Its time. for the purpose of achieving some degree of accuracy you don’t need everyone to answer any or all of the demographic questions. Just a large enough group that the statistics can be done (like tens of thousands).

Besides, see Kevin’s idea of coded demographic groups on the envelope.]

Personally if the ABS ends up having to proceed I think Michael Maley is onto the best answer.

Look at the form of the directive from Corman it specifies what information the Government wants and when it wants that information by.

This is entirely correct and proper, the ABS, as the experts, should then choose the best methodology to gather the information required and report.

In this case with the Government saying what methodology should be used, (even though it doesn’t appear on the directive,) this is potentially compromising the ABS’s ability to perform the task asked of it.

I think, the ABS should discard the Government methodology and proceed with the best methodology that fits the task.

It's Time
Guest

confessions @ #689 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 11:43 pm

It’s Time:

I’m sorry, but I believe the days of the Lib rebel acting (like actually voting with their feet) in the interests of either common sense or the national interest died with those 2 Lib Senators who crossed the floor to support the CPRS retired.

Today’s Liberals are locked and loaded behind a reactionary platform.

I wouldn’t doubt your assessment of current day Libs in most circumstances but maybe this particular issue is significant enough for some of them to find some ethics and courage. Entsch may be prepared to be the lightning rod. Regardless, we would be in the same position if the survey comes up with a “yes” or the survey is killed off by the High Court – it would be back in Parliament’s court.

Confessions
Guest

It’s Time:

I’m sorry, but I believe the days of the Lib rebel acting (like actually voting with their feet) in the interests of either common sense or the national interest died with those 2 Lib Senators who crossed the floor to support the CPRS retired.

Today’s Liberals are locked and loaded behind a reactionary platform.

briefly
Guest

It’s Time
99.9% of eligible voters will be expecting a “ballot paper” in the mail on which they expect to “cast their vote” on the issue of marriage equality and mail it back – near enough to a normal postal vote. Anything with a demographically coded return envelope and a final count being sampled and statistically adjusted is not the outcome expected by these people. It would be a farce in fact and perceived by all as such.

I wonder what measures will be taken to prevent multiple “voting”, “vote” stealing and/or the forging of returns.

It's Time
Guest

confessions @ #684 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 11:24 pm

I hope the High Court kills off this abuse of power by the executive to thwart the authority of Parliament to approve appropriation of consolidate revenue to approved purposes.

I do too, but even so, the end game is a parliamentary vote on SSM. The best way to achieve that is to vote yes in the plebiscite.

If this absurd mechanism is killed off by the High Court then maybe the Lib “rebels” go back to pursuing the private member’s bill route.

It's Time
Guest

99.9% of eligible voters will be expecting a “ballot paper” in the mail on which they expect to “cast their vote” on the issue of marriage equality and mail it back – near enough to a normal postal vote. Anything with a demographically coded return envelope and a final count being sampled and statistically adjusted is not the outcome expected by these people. It would be a farce in fact and perceived by all as such.

briefly
Guest

cud…I can see the advantages of carrying out a demographically valid sampling…but this sham is being touted as a ballot. Ballots are uniform, plain, simple, secret but also individually authorised forms. It might well harm participation if people felt it were something other than a ballot…that it would be used for statistical as well as electoral purposes.

Two quite different sets of protocols are being conflated. The result will be a process in which no-one will have confidence.

Confessions
Guest

I hope the High Court kills off this abuse of power by the executive to thwart the authority of Parliament to approve appropriation of consolidate revenue to approved purposes.

I do too, but even so, the end game is a parliamentary vote on SSM. The best way to achieve that is to vote yes in the plebiscite.

cud chewer
Guest

Its time. for the purpose of achieving some degree of accuracy you don’t need everyone to answer any or all of the demographic questions. Just a large enough group that the statistics can be done (like tens of thousands).

Besides, see Kevin’s idea of coded demographic groups on the envelope.

C@tmomma
Guest

I might add, it’s the Reddit/Trump playbook. But for a good cause.

cud chewer
Guest

Well that’s stupid. I put blockquotes around Kevin’s text and instead mine gets quoted.

C@tmomma
Guest

TPOF @ #664 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 10:49 pm

C@tmomma

All the young people I’ve spoken to about this plebiscite are organising themselves something fierce to go to the barricades, well, the letter box, for their LGBTQI mates.

——————————————-

This is one of those unique characteristics of this issue at this time that throws conventional political wisdom on its head. While many young people are, rightly or wrongly, totally alienated by the political system as it operates now in Australia, they are furiously active and committed supporters of LGBTQI rights, even when they are not personally affected. It’s an attitude that simply does not correlate with the way many of their parents and grandparents approach political issues (mainly through the hip pocket and fear).

Yep. If it rocks their world they are moved to get involved. Independent of all else and everyone else. And in their own way, for example with memes, such as the one I linked to earlier.

cud chewer
Guest

Even this could in theory be circumvented (if desired) by something like the following method:

* Have all personal information on a detachable flap on an envelope containing the survey form (this is the standard method for resolving identification issues with postal voting in Tasmanian local government elections, though I suspect there are others).

* On the envelope containing the survey form, print a code that corresponds to the basic demographic data necessary for scaling, but that is not detailed enough to be reverse engineered to determine any individual.

* After determining the demographic makeup of all votes, select a random but representative sample of (say) 20,000 envelopes, subject them to a thorough jumbling process and then count each against the demographic codes.

* Then apply weighting formulae.

It’s not going to happen but it could be done.

Kevin,

This would be a superior method to having to ask the person to answer the relevant demographic questions. But it would have to be explained well. I would hope that the experts will lobby for something like this to be done.

That way we can have both the raw count and a properly weighted result.

It's Time
Guest

cud chewer @ #634 Friday, August 11th, 2017 – 10:25 pm

briefly its possible to have a fully scientific survey including demographic questions and not compromise privacy.

And who is expecting to fill out a demographic questionaire when they receive their ME survey in the mail?

I hope the High Court kills off this abuse of power by the executive to thwart the authority of Parliament to approve appropriation of consolidate revenue to approved purposes.

briefly
Guest

confessions
In two nights KB has summarily dispensed with P1’s nonsense and now bemused’s.

Yes…he’s a shot of fresh air.

wpDiscuz