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Tasmanian Politics

Aug 12, 2017

EMRS: Liberal 37, Labor 34, Greens 16 in Tasmania

A surge in support for Labor's new leader puts the Tasmanian Liberal government in grave peril, according to a new poll.

The latest quarterly EMRS survey of state voting intention in Tasmania records a continuing decline in support for Will Hodgman’s Liberal government, which is down two to 37%, with Labor steady on 34%, the Greens up one to 16%, and the Jacqui Lambie Network recording 5% on their first inclusion as a response option. Furthermore, Labor’s Rebecca White has opened up a solid lead as preferred premier in her second poll since she assumed the Labor leadership in March, going from 42-39 behind to 48-37 in front. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1000. Kevin Bonham’s take on the result is that the Liberals would slip into minority position with 10 or 11 seats out of 25, with Labor on 10 and the Greens on three or four, which in practice would mean a return to Labor-Greens government.

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meher baba
Re the school starting age: the headline issue – “3.5 years for kindergarten” – is a bit misleading. In Tasmania, unlike several other states, there are eight years of formal school before high school : Kindergarten, Prep and then years 1-6. If we consider Prep to be the first year of school proper, then the proposal would see Tasmanian kids starting that year in the range of 4.5 to 5.5 years: which seems completely reasonable to me. Under the current system, kids born in the first few months of the calendar year can end up graduating from year 12 only… Read more »
Kevin Bonham

The wording of that school starting age poll did mention it was a Liberal government policy but was otherwise OK. Though the finding of 30% saying they were likely to change their vote should be ignored – that form of asking questions like that about an issue in isolation is pseudoscience with no predictive value.

Leroy Lynch
Guest Union poll reveals most Tasmanians reject lowering school starting age By Annah Fromberg Posted about an hour ago A poll of 1,000 Tasmanians has shown about 75 per cent oppose the Liberal Government’s plan to lower the school starting age. The Liberals want to reduce the compulsory school starting age by six months, which would push the voluntary kindergarten starting age down to three and a half. Currently it is compulsory for children to start prep in the year they turn five. A new EMRS poll commissioned by the United Voice Union surveyed 1,000 Tasmanian adults from August 3-7,… Read more »