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YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10

A deeper look into YouGov's latest numbers, which are not unusual in finding the major parties evenly matched on the primary vote, but well out on a limb in having the Coalition slightly ahead on two-party preferred.

I’m back to running primary figures as the headline for the latest fortnightly YouGov-Fifty Acres poll, because their two-party headline figures remain highly unorthodox – in this case attributing a 51-49 lead to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time, based on near equal results on the primary vote. The pollster’s other peculiarity, low primary votes for both major parties, are maintained, with the Coalition steady on 34% and Labor up a point to 33%. At 10% apiece, the two larger minor parties are only slightly higher than with the other pollsters, with the Greens down on a fortnight ago and One Nation up one. The larger difference is the the remainder account for 13% (Nick Xenophon Team 5%, Christian parties 4%, other/independent 4%), compared with 9% from both Newspoll and Essential Research.

I’ve also been provided with detail on YouGov’s weightings and breakdowns, which indicate that they are weighting heavily by past vote to correct for an excess of non-major party voters in their sample and a paucity of Coalition voters. By contrast, the age and gender balance of their sample is reasonably proportionate to the overall voting population, aside from the usual problem of having not enough respondents from the 18-24 cohort. This week at least, the dramatic two-party preferred result is down to nearly three-quarters of the 103 surveyed One Nation supporters favouring the Coalition, compared with 50-50 in the 15 lower house seats the party contested last year, and 61-39 at the Western Australian election in March, when the Liberals had the benefit of an across-the-board preference deal (for which they paid the price in other ways). If there really is something in this, this week’s primary vote numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research would have converted to respective Labor leads of 52-48 and 51-49. Perhaps significantly, more than half of the One Nation supporters are identified as having voted for the Coalition last year.

The poll also finds 45% saying Barnaby Joyce should step aside pending the High Court’s ruling on his eligibility, with 38% saying he should remain. On the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, 74% rate themselves likely to participate compared with 17% for unlikely; 59% say they will vote yes (down one from early July), with 33% for no (up five); 39% express concern it will lead to “homophobic abuse”, and 42% that it will “cause division”, with respective scores of 51% and 49% for not concerned. Twenty-one per cent support a tax to address the gender pay gap with 59% opposed (16% to 67% among men, 26% to 50% among women). Questions on trust in institutions records 44% expressing trust in banks, 35% in parliament, 41% in newspapers and 72% in Medicare, with respective negative scores of 53%, 63%, 55% and 24%. A question on most important election issues, from which respondents were directed to pick four, has health and hospitals well in the clear on 49%, followed by a big glut between 25% and 29% (pensions, immigrants and asylum seekers, job security and unemployment, living standards, schools and education, the national economy).

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Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

I am so sorry this has happened, Victoria. I am so sad and yet angry that one so young should pass away like that. Much the same with Fiona Richardson. As someone said, why should bastards like Trump and Pell get long lives while people who do more good in one year than those creeps do in a whole lifetime get a short measure?

I am keeping you in my thoughts and email me if you want my phone number for a chat, via William.

Hugs.

victoria @ #618 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 8:53 pm

My brother in law passed away just before weekend, neatly two weeks shy of his 51st birthday. He was diagnosed with a terminal illness barely 8 weeks ago. Hearing about Fiona Richardson has amplified everything for me. Sigh……….

cud chewer
Guest

Player One. Its legitimate for you to be terribly wrong.

Player One
Guest

grimace @ #944 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 2:03 pm

P1 is in favour of a boycott, as is their right. Others don’t agree with P1. Various arguments have been made, remade and misrepresented. Complimentary character assessments have been exchanged. The process has been repeated ad nauseam.

This is an excellent summary. Thank you. The main problem here seems to be that some posters here simply don’t regard as ‘legitimate’ any opinion that disagrees with their own.

Bob's Uncle
Guest

Ah geez, a solid majority in favour of banning the burka, and 2/3 support for drug testing welfare recipients. Well at least no-one can accuse Reachtel of finding an overly progressive sample.

Voice Endeavour
Guest

Notes on the pol.

That’s +1 to Labor from July 20th,

Very close on PPM, considering the advantage of incumbency

The latest poll puts Mr Turnbull ahead of Mr Shorten 51.6 per cent to 48.4 per cent, with the 20 July poll split at 54.5 per cent to 45.5 per cent in the prime minister’s favour.

It appears to be respondent allocated preferences I believe.

Primaries are
33.8 Labor
31.7 Coalition
9.2 Greens
10.1 ON
Unsure what of the rest is others, undecided etc.

Assuming 0.83 Greens -> Lab, 0.47 ON, Others, undecided -> Lab

gives 53.3 to Labor 2PP

zoidlord
Guest

Dodgy poll:

Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
·
5m
#BREAKING : Sky News/ReachTELL poll shows 53% support for random drug testing for people on welfare while 11% are opposed

Gecko
Guest

Hey Vic… sorry to hear the news… my sincere condolences.

zoidlord
Guest

@SkyNewsAust
·
4m
SkyNews-@ReachTEL poll shows 50% do not believe MPs referred to the High Court should stand down. MORE:

Lol ppl r stupid

alias
Guest

Socrates.. Going by a radio report I heard, the reason the dates were set back until October was that Roberts felt he couldn’t get his paperwork organised in time for a September hearing.

CTar1.. Yes it’s going to be wonderfully entertaining all round. I’m tempted to book a holiday in Canberra at that time just to have a peek. I wish it would be telecast. Perhaps ABC24 might do so. Plenty of dry argument I suppose – but a government does swing in the wind.

Voice Endeavour
Guest
CTar1
Guest

VE – William suggested that ‘Essential’ was a possibility.

CTar1
Guest

Dr KB

yes this is a thing

LoL!

CTar1
Guest

alias

As you suggest for Joyce a translator is a requirement for sure (Sen Hanson might be available but she’d need Ashby to help as well).

Some medical assistance needed also.

This fiasco is going to take a lot to sort out and most of the individuals involved just being embroiled in it because of their ‘tick and flick’ attitude.

‘Rules are for the plebs’ …

Socrates
Guest

The HC decisions so far are hardly a ringing endorsement of the Commonwealth position. I wonder if Turnbull is still confident? Consider:

Request for September hearing : knocked back to October 10-12:
“However, she [Chief Justice Kiefel] raised concerns whether the matters could be dealt with that quickly, particularly when Deputy Nationals leader Fiona Nash and South Australian senator Nick Xenophon’s cases were awaiting formal referral to the court.”

So, didn’t delaying Nash’s referral work out well?

And this on Canavan:
“They also suggested the highly publicised story he had presented about his mother signing him up for Italian citizenship was “irrelevant”, rather arguing that there had been retrospective changes to Italian laws that had led to the strife.”

So the dog did eat Canavan’s homework, but he is unable to present the dog, so he will argue that he never really had to do the homework in the first place.

And last but not least, Tony Windsor has been allowed to join the case.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-24/october-date-set-for-federal-politicians/8838246

CTar1
Guest

Aiden Nx (I don’t recall you posting before, if new Greetings!) / Chinda

One of the issues raised when the Canavan stuff

There’s been so many ‘positions’ on Canavan that I’ve got to the point, that even if he had made useful contributions, that he should be discarded just on the huge waste of time and distraction basis.

Voice Endeavour
Guest

@ Tom – Turnbull is a long way from losing government. He’s currently got 75+McGowan +NX says Sharkie will vote confidence + Katter will if he gets his pound of flesh + the speaker. Even if Windsor gets in, Turnbull doesn’t lose control of the house unless he loses 3 more MPs.

Rex Douglas
Guest

Never thought I’d see eye to eye on something with this individual

https://twitter.com/AlanJones/status/900488672578985989

ratsak
Guest

The advantages are that we’d be rid of him. There are no disadvantages. That’s why he won’t call an election.

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