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BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor

A solid bump to Labor on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate after particularly dire result for the government from Newspoll and ReachTEL.

A big week of polling, with the weekly Essential, fortnightly Newspoll and YouGov and monthly ReachTEL landing all at once, and their combined effect is to shake the BludgerTrack aggregate out of its lethargy with a solid move to Labor. The two contributors to this were Newspoll, whose 53-47 to 54-46 movement this fortnight is almost precisely replicated by BludgerTrack, but also by ReachTEL, whose primary vote numbers were a lot worse for the Coalition than the 52-48 two-party headline suggested. All of which causes Labor to gain four on the seat projection, including one apiece in each of the four largest states. The Coalition has taken a particularly heavy hit on the primary vote, but it’s One Nation rather than Labor that has yielded the advantage. A new set of leadership numbers from Newspoll sends both leaders downwards on the net satisfaction trend, with Bill Shorten gaining fractionally on preferred prime minister.

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briefly
Guest

Zoom…..SS in the US is not a right pertaining to citizenship. It is a savings account. Even if Hinch had been a US citizen and had renounced, he would still be eligible to receive payments from his savings account.

SS monies do not come from the Treasury. They are personal funds.

John Cee
Guest

Jut got ReachTel’d. Qld State Gov poll.

Player One
Guest

grimace @ #1242 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 3:07 pm

The LCoE for this brain fart, even assuming 100% utilisation, is going to make it cost prohibitive and both the taxpayer & energy consumers are going to be on the hook for decades so that Brian Trumble can be PM for a few more weeks.

The LCoS for pumped hydro is among the lowest of all storage technologies. And the LCoS of Snowy 2.0 will be lower than the average for pumped hydro installations.

It doesn’t really make sense to talk about LCoE of storage schemes, but it you did then pumped hydro would be among the lowest for that as well, assuming the cost of the “E” is the same across all storage technologies. The LCoS of pumped hydro is so low that this would still be true even if you add in round trip losses and transmission losses.

If this government can’t sell Snowy 2.0, it will be because they are a pack of incompetents who don’t really believe in anything other than burning coal, and not because Snowy 2.0 is intrinsically inefficient.

zoidlord
Guest

New construction for Qantas big birds:

Brisbane Airport ✈️ @BrisbaneAirport
·
50m
Dreams come true for Brisbane Airport
http://newsroom.bne.com.au/dreams-come-true-for-brisbane-airport/

briefly
Guest

Rats…

Whlie Turnbull would no doubt like to tar Labor with the 44(i) brush, he needs some evidence. He has none. The HC will not agree to hear a reference that is unsupported with facts.

Neither the Senate nor the House will refer their own members to the HC without a good reason…..and the HC surely will not allow itself to be used as a political weapon.

Notably….no Libs have been pinged. G, ON, Nat…yes.,but neither Lib nor Labor….

I suspect both the majors will be feelong quite pleased with themselves and are hoping the HC takes a tough line…

a r
Guest

grimace @ #1742 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 3:07 pm

Snowy 2.0 is going to have to buy power from the grid, which I’ll assume will be done off peak, so they’ll be paying $0.15 per kWh, best case scenario and likely a lot more (at 80% round trip efficiency that’s $0.1875 per kWh for the stored energy). Then there is recovering the several billion dollar capital cost of Snowy 2.0, which is going to be difficult if the pumped hydro system is only used for peaking purposes, then we add running costs like maintenance and overhead.

There needs to be a philosophical shift, maybe, to recognize that surplus renewable energy doesn’t actually cost anything?

As in, if you’ve got a 100Mw solar farm, and demand is only at 80Mw, then it’s not like the solar farm operator saves any money or otherwise benefits by switching off 20Mw of panels. The panels are there and they’re going to generate electricity as long as the sun is shining on them. The solar operator loses nothing by gifting their unused output to Snowy (or a Tesla battery farm, or whatever), and gains even if they sell the surplus at $0.01 per kWh.

Though I’d treat it more like a bank; generators “deposit” energy into Snowy (or batteries, or whatever other storage solutions are available) and no money changes hands when this happens. They’ve just moved their energy, and haven’t used or sold it yet. Then when the storage is tapped the generated energy is sold to consumers at the standard retail rate, and the generator and the storage operator split the proceeds 50/50 or along whatever lines are fair.

I’d agree 100% that it makes zero economic sense to burn extra coal, gas, or any other nonrenewable energy source for the purposes of storing energy. There’s no such thing as a surplus of nonrenewable energy. But I think renewables are a completely different ball-game, and need different and better rules.

Voice Endeavour
Guest

@ grimace – your calculations are off.

This is being used to commence a hostile takeover of the existing snowy. The more Turnbull spends, the more of the existing scheme he steals from NSW + Vic.

Lets imagine the existing snowy is owned 50% by the Feds and 50% by NSW. it is worth $10 B and generates $1B per year, with that annual income split in proportion to ownership.

If the feds do nothing for ten years, they earn $5B in revenue, and then sell their part of the snowy for $5B, giving them $10 B in cash.

Or, if the feds build snowy 2.0, which involves building a giant golden statue of Turnbull in the control room as the only change.

This costs $10B, and the feds now own 15/20 of the Snowy scheme, up from 5/10 before.

It runs for ten years, generating $7.5 B in revenue for the feds and $2.5 for NSW.

The feds then sell their part of it for $15 Billion

The total amount of cash the Feds have is $7.5 from revenue, $15 B from the sale, and negative $10 B that they spent on building the statue.

Their net position? $12.5 B – So building a useless statue generated $2.5 B in revenue for the Commonwealth.

Snowy 2.0 finances make sense, from a certain point of view.

zoidlord
Guest

Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
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Aust offers Philippines training in IS fight

Truth that LNP working with the Mafia.

ratsak
Guest

briefly @ #1236 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 2:43 pm

We can be sure that neither the HC nor the Parliament would wish to have the court involved in scrutinising MPs just for the hell of it.

I don’t believe we can be sure of that at all. This is the Liberals we’re talking about. You are making the common mistake of assuming there are some depths they wouldn’t sink to. If Trumble gets to a position where he feels referring Labor MP’s on flimsy excuses offers more upside than downside (or even just a Hail Mary chance to survive) he will do it. It doesn’t even need to be a rational decision. Desperation just needs to be high enough to crack him. What he should do won’t get a look in if what he shouldn’t do might just save his arse.

When the HC kills the postfarce could well be a trigger. When the court comes out with a nice black letter reading that kills it Trumble will surely be advised (if he hasn’t already worked it out) that the sort of creative reading of the constitution required to get Barnyard off the hook isn’t looking likely panic will be close. It’s not hard to imagine that he’ll feel like he has nothing left to lose.

The Marriage equality problem would just have gone to critical and he’s probably facing the prospect of crossing the floor. And then having the loons go completely wild in response. He’ll look an even bigger goose and more incompetent for even proposing the idea of a postal vote. Plus he’ll be looking at losing his DPM and majority (possibly permanently), definitely losing a couple of other ministers, having the Nats pissed off because their deputy lost not only her seat, but was replaced by a Lib (and possibly the same issue in Qld). And we’ll be at what 20-21 Newspolls down? He wouldn’t have a lot to lose (least of all any legacy). Everything in Trumble’s past and make up screams that he’s exactly the sort of self centred scumbag to lash out and trash the joint if he finds himself in such a corner.

Believe the worst in Trumble and you’ll probably only end up slightly surprised that he ended up worse than you expected.

zoidlord
Guest

@Barney

Lunch? School? Etc

grimace
Guest

Trog Sorrenson @ #1239 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 12:49 pm

cud chewer
I think the engineering pros and cons of Snowy 2.0 are less relevant than the overall strategy, given the ongoing disruption of the network, and the business model.
A centrally located pumped hydro facility services a very wide area, but it;s business model depends on arbitrage , i.e. buy when power is cheap and sell when it is expensive. With more and more players developing local storage options, and the huge build out in solar providing cheap power during the day, the old concepts of high, “peak”, and low demand may disappear.

I was thinking about what the LCoE for Snowy 2.0 would potentially be.

Snowy 2.0 is going to have to buy power from the grid, which I’ll assume will be done off peak, so they’ll be paying $0.15 per kWh, best case scenario and likely a lot more (at 80% round trip efficiency that’s $0.1875 per kWh for the stored energy). Then there is recovering the several billion dollar capital cost of Snowy 2.0, which is going to be difficult if the pumped hydro system is only used for peaking purposes, then we add running costs like maintenance and overhead.

The LCoE for this brain fart, even assuming 100% utilisation, is going to make it cost prohibitive and both the taxpayer & energy consumers are going to be on the hook for decades so that Brian Trumble can be PM for a few more weeks.

a r
Guest

Hunted Fox @ #1729 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 2:23 pm

Oh Dear

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/28/trump-tweets-hoax-louise-mensch-claude-taylor?CMP=twt_a-media_b-gdnmedia

Yet some at the time treated Mensch as a reliable and credible source instead of the unhinged conspiracy nut she actually is.

Anyone else starting to get the feeling that the whole Russia conspiracy story is going to fizzle out to nothing?

Nah, I stopped giving those particular sources credit shortly after “sealed indictment”.

But Trump’s done enough dodgy stuff (with Russia, and elsewhere) that it really doesn’t matter. Trump very loudly and very publicly called on Russia to hack Hillary. It’s on tape and all over Youtube. His son in law took a meeting with them after being promised dirt on Hillary. He released e-mails showing he was enthusiastic about getting this sort of info from them. And now there are more e-mails involving his personal lawyer talking about engineering an election victory for Trump with the help of Putin and other Russian officials. There’s an entire dossier about prostitutes and golden showers (and other, actually substantial, things) that’s as likely to be real as “sealed indictment” was likely to be fake.

None of that came from Mensch, all of it has been covered and reported by reputable outlets that actually check their facts before publishing, and some of it has been put out there by Trump and his cronies themselves.

A couple of sources that were generally regarded with skepticism turning out to be worthy of that skepticism doesn’t make all the other sources wrong. It’s neither here nor there, really.

adrian
Guest

chinda63 @ #1233 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 2:27 pm

The takeaway from this citizenship carry-on will be a number of MPs and Senators will be out of a job … but none of them from Labor

How will the MSM spin that, I wonder?

Easy, it’s all the fault of the stupid Constitution, which was to be upheld at all costs when it was only those slack Greens involved.

Then it’s an easy step to the fault in the Constitution is because of something Labor did or didn’t do.

Trog Sorrenson
Guest

cud chewer
I think the engineering pros and cons of Snowy 2.0 are less relevant than the overall strategy, given the ongoing disruption of the network, and the business model.
A centrally located pumped hydro facility services a very wide area, but it;s business model depends on arbitrage , i.e. buy when power is cheap and sell when it is expensive. With more and more players developing local storage options, and the huge build out in solar providing cheap power during the day, the old concepts of high, “peak”, and low demand may disappear.

a r
Guest

Did Labor make the hurricane, too?

Simon Katich
Guest

**Anyone else starting to get the feeling that the whole Russia conspiracy story is going to fizzle out to nothing?**
It probably will quieten down as I would think Mueller will run a tight ship of an investigation. It will also be a long process. Any leaks about what they are investigating will likely come from the leakiest ship of all – the White House.

briefly
Guest

chinda63
I should also add that I hope a Labor person is referred to the HC, because it will shine a very clear light on what the ALP’s procedures are, and show up the deficiencies elsewhere.

This absolutely will not happen.

For a start it would be a waste of the HC’s time. Beyond that, the Parliament is empowered to make a referral but will not do this without some clear evidence that a member may be ineligible. MP’s derive their standing from the electoral process rather than from getting a tick from the HC. We can be sure that neither the HC nor the Parliament would wish to have the court involved in scrutinising MPs just for the hell of it.

Vogon Poet
Guest

Labor is being blamed for the LNP failure on energy policy because of “bickering ” , so I’m sure somehow it’s Labor’s fault© for the citizenship fiasco too.

chinda63
Guest

I should also add that I hope a Labor person is referred to the HC, because it will shine a very clear light on what the ALP’s procedures are, and show up the deficiencies elsewhere.

In fact it might even give power to the arm of the HC to conclude, “the rules were clear. The Labor Party understood them, and did what was necessary to ensure its prospective MPs complied with the law. That every other party did not do due diligence isn’t a reflection on the constitution; it’s a reflection on THEM. Off with their heads!”

Okay, maybe not the last bit, but the point is everyone else has been deficient in sorting this stuff out. Labor has not, therefore the problem is with everyone else, not with Labor and not with letter of the law.

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