Menu lock

Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

The latest Essential records no change on voting intention, be it for a federal election or a same-sex marriage survey.

The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll has Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, but provides only incomplete detail of the primary vote. The poll also records 59% in favour of same-sex marriage with 31% opposed, compared with 57% and 32% a fortnight ago, with 62% (down one) saying they will definitely “vote” in the survey if it survives the High Court challenge, and another 16% (down two) saying they will probably do so. Again, this skews towards the yes camp, with 74% of supporters rating themselves as definite compared with 58% of opponents.

On power prices, the poll finds 49% holding energy companies principally responsible, compared with 22% for the Turnbull government and 9% for “environmentalists pushing action on climate change”. It also finds 54% opposed to changing the date of Australia, with 26% in support, and 70% believing “believe everyone can celebrate on that day”, versus 18% against. Forty-two per cent disagree with changing inscriptions on public statues. The full report should be with us later today.

We recommend

From around the web

Powered by Taboola

497 comments

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
CTar1
Guest

bemused

A great read.

Gittens actually hitting the points.

CTar1
Guest

dtt / GK

Israel will never leave the Golan Heights unless under extreme duress.

It’s one of the few certain things in the ME.

Question
Guest

Regarding the common “ALP should be further ahead commentary” here. From a historical assesment of polls I might agree, but there seems to be a new pattern emerging. Since Morgan (who provided most of the 60-40 polls people like to remember) departed, polls have become incredibly static, and the changes are a slow grind.

It could be that the rise in the data mining type industries are driving that. Who knows? But perhaps this incredibly static picture is actually far more accurate? And the “narrowing” we are so used to is a thing of the past? Perhaps when the 2 most accurate polls at the last election keep telling us the ALP are 53-47 ahead, historically a good result at actual elections, that is far more hard boiled than when polls jumped around.

daretotread
Guest

Gorkay
Yes to the Qld comment and yes also to Syria comment.

In Syria i expect Erdogan to eat humble pie and switch off his rebels to form some sort of federal system with semi independence for idlib. Same deal for the Kurds provided not the full Rojava.

However the alliances are fluid and complex.

One HUGE issue could be the Golan heights. After 50 years it would seem appropriate that thy either become fully part of Israle with all the residents given FULL citizenship and travel rights etc, or else it is returned to Syria with a peace keeping force of some kind. Not that Syria will be in a position to be aggressive towards Israel anytime in the next 50 years.

Leroy Lynch
Guest

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/one-nation-preference-flow-puts-queensland-labor-in-lead/news-story/98abc923682939630d244af287d03370

One Nation preference flow puts Queensland Labor in lead
The Australian
12:00AM September 6, 2017
Sarah Elks Queensland political reporter

Annastacia Palaszczuk’s minority government is in a winning position ahead of the looming Queensland election but may still rely on the preference flows of One Nation voters to cling to power.

The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows Labor has extended its lead over the Liberal National Party ahead of an election likely to be fought on a seat-by-seat basis in the regions and Brisbane’s ­fringes.

http://cdn.thinglink.me/api/image/961620018049581058/1024/10/ see table, no paywall

Gorkay King
Guest

Good result for Labor in Queensland. Not surprised with approval ratings. I think this day and age low approval ratings are normal for any politician outside honeymoon period.

Leroy Lynch
Guest

If you got polled by ReachTEl tonight, no way they could turn it around that fast, let alone have any media run it. Would need at least a day to prepare the charts etc.

Gorkay King
Guest

@Daretotread

Momentum is definitely with Syrian government. I expect rebels to be reduced to a rump in Idlib province and Turkish proxity militias in N. Aleppo.

Hard to see anyone joining the rebels when the writing is on the wall.

Leroy Lynch
Guest

daretotread – no, Newspoll

Probably one of their occasional state level polls in The Australian, with data from over a 2 month period.

daretotread
Guest

Leroy

Is that a Reachtel
I was polled tonight by reachtel

daretotread
Guest

For those who follow the middle east there was huge news toady.

The siege of Dier Ezzor is broken. Those guys held out surrounded by ISIS for three years.

The implications for the ME and Syria are absolutely HUGE since it means that the Assad government has almost certainly regained control of the Euphrates River.

While there remains the unresolved issue of Kurdistan and also the rebel province of Idlib, it would now seem probable that the rest of Syria is returned to the government control, although some guerilla action and terrorist attacks will presumably continue.

The implications of this are still unclear, but it would seem that the Saudi funded Wahabi extremists (ISIS) have taken a hiding and essentially their efforts have failed. Turkey is a big player in Idlib where it is possible that the two sunni supported factions will come to blows (ie Saudi/Jordanian supported reels versus turkey supported rebels. turkey will probably win this one, given that the Saudi supported mob are on the run.

What is clear is that Iran and Russia have gained much influence presumably at the expense of Saudi, Israel and the US.

Leroy Lynch
Guest

Ghost has figures on a QLD state level Newspoll. Article not yet online.

QLD State 2 Party Preferred: ALP 53 (+2) LNP 47 (-2)
QLD State Primary Votes: ALP 37 (-1) LNP 34 (-6) ON 15 GRN 8 (0)
QLD Palaszczuk ALP: Approve 41 (-3) Disapprove 46 (+4)
QLD Nicholls LNP: Approve 29 (-2) Disapprove 45 (+9)
QLD Preferred Premier: Palaszczuk ALP 43 (-1) Nicholls LNP 33 (+2)

geoffrey
Guest

forget about britain witness NZ only this month – bill is not a great leader in public – labor should be several more points ahead – i have said this since he took office and never had cause to change. he may win, but the result should not be close. i also worry about his skill in delivering the message on tax …

daretotread
Guest

Thanks for the assistance bludgers

Steve, Paaptse, Yabba, KJ, Taylor made. Much appreciated, if only the moral support to find a way through.
Paapsse’s link at least made me understand it was a major glitch, not some think simple i had overlooked.

Steve777
Guest

That Ross Gittins article needs to be chiselled in stone in prominent locations. Finally, someone identifies the real bludgers and freeloaders.

Steve777
Guest

Nothing that remains in public ownership should be privatised ever.

bemused
Guest

Question @ #477 Tuesday, September 5th, 2017 – 11:07 pm

What is funny is the L-NP lecturing the energy sector they are mostly responsible for making private. The supposedly better economic managers can’t quite manage an RET that would boost investment in the sector, increase competition, and drive down prices. Instead they want more coal that nobody wants to invest in.

Yes, all got going in Victoria with the mad ideology of Kennettism.

daretotread
Guest

Copying into a brand new document seems to have worked!!!!!!
Now i just have to restore all the rest of the dat (drop downs etc) -better than 750 dates

wpDiscuz