As related by The Sunday Mail, Sky News has a ReachTEL poll of voting intention ahead of in Queensland, with results that make alarming reading for Labor ahead of a looming election. Primary votes are listed at 32.1% for Labor, 30.6% for the LNP, 18.1% for One Nation and 7.5% for the Greens, but this presumably does not account for an undecided rating that typically approaches 10%, and renders misleading the report’s comparison of the poll to results from the 2015 election. What is clear is that everything depends on preferences from One Nation, and the respondent-allocated result has them flowing mostly to the LNP, turning their slight deficit on the primary vote into a 52-48 advantage on two-party preferred.

The poll also finds Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls matching Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk on preferred premier – a fairly striking result, notwithstanding the tendency of ReachTEL’s forced response measure to be less favourable to incumbents than those of other pollsters. Palaszczuk is credited with a 32.4% favourable rating, 34.0% unfavourable and 31.9% neutral; Nicholls with 24.7% favourable, 28.6% unfavourable and 39.7% neutral; and Pauline Hanson with 36.4% favourable, 42.3% unfavourable and 21.3% neutral. The poll was conducted from a big sample of over 4000, presumably on Thursday.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that the undecided result was 7.7%. So the primary vote totals should properly be read as Labor 34.8% (down from 37.5% at the 2015 election), LNP 33.2% (down from 41.3%), Greens 8.1% (down from 8.4%) and One Nation 19.6%.

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