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Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Essential's latest produces an improved result for Malcolm Turnbull on personal approval – but not on voting intention.

The Guardian reports this week’s Essential Research fortnight rolling average result has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, with primary votes to follow later today (UPDATE: everybody steady, with Coalition on 36%, Labor 38%, Greens 10% and One Nation 7%). Nonetheless, Malcolm Turnbull records an encouraging result from Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have him up four on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 43% (UPDATE: Actually, he’s only up one point). Bill Shorten is at 37% and 47%, which compares with 36% and 47% a month ago (although The Guardian report says he is down three on disapproval – either this is wrong, or his disapproval rating is really 44%) (UPDATE: It’s the latter). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 42-28, little changed from last month’s 43-29.

The poll also finds 55% consider war between the United States and North Korea very or somewhat likely, versus 36% for somewhat or very unlikely. Asked to rate various potential concerns to personal safety, the order of concern ran terrorism, car accidents, nuclear warfare, catastrophic climate change, natural disasters, gang violence and family violence (of which you can make what you will). Also featured was a question on which major party best represents various interests, which produced familiar results.

UPDATE: Full report here.

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CTar1
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Trump loved to pull the pud –

14 times Trump bragged about his intelligence
Donald Trump says he has a very high IQ, and he talked about it almost constantly on the campaign trail.

http://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2017/10/10/times-trump-bragged-about-intelligence-orig-alee.cnn

CTar1
Guest

Trump doesn’t stop trying –

President Donald Trump has signed an executive order to make it easier for Americans to buy bare-bones health insurance plans and circumvent Obamacare rules — but the action faces possible legal challenges.

Stymied in Congress by the failure of Senate Republicans to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, Mr Trump’s executive order appears to be his administration’s latest effort to undermine the 2010 law without action by legislators.

The stripped-down insurance policies allowed under the order are likely to entice young and healthy people away from the individual insurance markets created by the ACA. That could further destabilise those markets because only the sickest people would likely continue purchasing insurance on the exchanges.

If this happens, experts expect premiums to rise rapidly, effectively eroding the law’s protection that people with pre-existing medical conditions cannot be charged more.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-obamacare-executive-order-sign-us-health-insurance-plans-latest-a7997256.html

Dan Gulberry
Guest
briefly
Guest

Libertarian Unionist
DTT, briefly, your are discussing the Triffin dilemma.

Read this: https://dailyreckoning.com/the-triffin-dilemma/

The current state of affairs goes back to Nixon’s establishment of the petrodollar arrangements.

Nixon abolished the gold standard…excellent idea.

CTar1
Guest

BBC breaking news –

The US is pulling out of UN cultural organisation Unesco, accusing it of “anti-Israel” bias

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41598991

CTar1
Guest

This will be a difficult precedent for the Australian govt regardless of who is in ‘power’.

‘Mixed feelings’ over Canada’s ’60s Scoop’ settlement.

On October 6, the federal government announced it had reached a $640m agreement, in principle, with Sixties Scoop survivors across Canada who lost their indigenous identity as a result of the long-standing practice.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/10/feelings-canada-60s-scoop-settlement-171010161100153.html

briefly
Guest

daretotread
LU

The thing is as far as I understand it that the world has shifted back towards the sort of crisis Nixon sorted with the petro dollar, so that some new arrangement is needed.

In the absence of leadership from the USA it seems China and Russia have stepped up to the plate.

The idea of a USD “crisis” is a fantasy. There is no crisis. As for Russia, it is far, far too small to lead anything in economic or financial terms; and China does not have either a fully convertible currency or a transparent bond market, meaning the Yuan has no real use as a reserve asset.

The creation of excess currency by the US and its acceptance in every market has very greatly extended the US monetary domain. The financial order is dollarised from start to finish, effectively subordinating export-dependant economies to the requirements of the US, which is able to call on the production of external economies at will, increasing the effective real wealth of US residents.

As the US Fed reverses its past QE program, dollars will be deliberately un-created or annihilated. This will lead to dollar-shortage in external domains and will tend to increase the USD exchange rate. This will be deflationary in the US/inflationary in its counter-parties. Needless to say, this will be unpopular in the counter-parties, who will experience a decline in their real wages and a loss of monetary and fiscal flexibility.

Libertarian Unionist
Guest

DTT,

Or simply China has a shed load of debt-fuelled inflation to export to the rest of the world, and needs a conduit for it that won’t bounce back and exacerbate the problem.

CTar1
Guest

watching the Shanghai Open.

Federer safely ahead of Dolgopalov.

The older players who are ‘quality’ are having a good year.

briefly
Guest

C@tmomma
briefly @ #1884 Thursday, October 12th, 2017 – 10:57 pm

C@t….I believe they were the Hunt brothers…ended badly. A rogue trader from Nomuta tried the same thing with copper too…invariably these things fail

Due to the fact that there are enough rational actors in the right places that will set things back on an even keel. Thankfully.

Eventually the costs of keeping a hoard start to exceed the gains to be made by adding to it, at which point it is no longer possible for the hoarder to continue to buy. In the absence of buyer action, sellers soon dominate the trade and prices begin to fall, in turn impelling the progressive liquidation of the hoard and intensifying price falls….and encouraging new selling. The classic from Australia was the wool stockpile, which became totally over-bought and over-priced….and eventually had to be liquidated. And Melbourne real estate in the 1880s and 90s.

daretotread
Guest

Elaug

I see.

Well this crisis may probably shift public opinion in PR. They obviously now have a very unsatisfactory arrangement. They are tiny but bigger than other “independent Caribbean nations.

Possibly they would be better off federating with the British and US Virgin Islands. almost a reasonable size then.

CTar1
Guest

dtt

In the absence of leadership from the USA it seems China and Russia have stepped up to the plate.

‘Aint that the truth’.

daretotread
Guest

LU

I had not heard of the Tiffin dilemma but of course I did know of Nixon and the petro dollar.

Those of us who recall the oil crisis of the early 70s (which helped to undermine Whitlam from day 1) will recall when OPEC were seen as evil demons.

I guess for the USA Nixon was pretty bloody clever (in hindsight) as he collected Saudi and the OPEC countries as friends and effectively undermined the eastern block.

The thing is as far as I understand it that the world has shifted back towards the sort of crisis Nixon sorted with the petro dollar, so that some new arrangement is needed.

In the absence of leadership from the USA it seems China and Russia have stepped up to the plate.

CTar1
Guest

LU

There were two large US airlines that went broke about 20 years ago when their auditors pointed out that the value of their frequent flyers points would not even go close to surviving mass use of them.

Their points had no expiry dates!

Elaugaufein
Guest

dtt:
Puerto Rico has voted to become a US State before, but the US won’t allow it, primarily because Republicans have almost never been in a position to not Veto it and it’s guaranteed to be an additional 2 Democratic Senators.

I can’t see it wishing for total independence, it simply doesn’t have the economic structure to do so (and that’s before the latest devastation) though I suppose Trump’s malfeasance could force the matter.

daretotread
Guest

I wonder what would happen if they voted for independence (there was such a vote I read)

It would make sense for Porto Rico to join with the Virgin Islands to either become a state of the USA or a separate nation

Libertarian Unionist
Guest

CTar1 @ #1897 Thursday, October 12th, 2017 – 11:40 pm

LU

Every man and his dog has a bit of $USD left over from trips o/s as well as those who have systematically stuffed $USD’s under their mattress.

If big numbers of them decided to redeem them into a local currency you’d expect that the US economy would suffer big time.

Yep. So the $14 trillion dollar question is, when do you expect everyone else to stop trusting the US to pay its bond holders?

It’s Keynes’ beauty contest.

CTar1
Guest

LU

Every man and his dog has a bit of $USD left over from trips o/s as well as those who have systematically stuffed $USD’s under their mattress.

If big numbers of them decided to redeem them into a local currency you’d expect that the US economy would suffer big time.

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