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BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

Labor bites and holds its poll trend gain from last week, and Essential Research unloads a set of state voting intention numbers.

The one brand new poll for the week, from Essential Research, made so little change to the BludgerTrack voting intention numbers that I had to double check the result. There was also an infusion of new state breakdown data courtesy of Newspoll’s quarterly state-level results, but the only difference this has made is to add one to the Coalition tally in New South Wales and subtract one in Queensland. There’s big movement in Malcolm Turnbull’s favour on the leadership trend rating following new numbers from Essential Research, but this measure is over-sensitive to the vagaries of particular pollsters, which I’ve long been meaning to correct for. Full results at the bottom of the post.

Essential Research has also released its quarterly state voting intention results this week, which are accumulated from all of its polling over the past three months. In New South Wales, the Coalition has a steady lead of 51-49; in Victoria, Labor’s lead narrows from 53-47 to 52-48; in Queensland, Labor holds a steady lead of 54-46, which is better than they have been doing from other pollsters lately, with One Nation’s primary vote at a relatively modest 13%; in Western Australia, Labor’s lead is down from 55-45 to 54-46; and in South Australia, Labor has a steady lead of 52-48, with the Nick Xenophon Team’s primary vote at 18%. Read all about it here.

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Doyley
Guest

Good evening all,

Good Newspoll result.

The MSM continue to froth at the mouth in anticipation of Turnbull resetting the agenda with his ” affordable energy package ” and settling the SSM debate within the next month. Neither issue will play out smoothly over coming weeks.

According to the media lapdogs Turnbull will wipe the floor with Shorten and labor over energy policy as he attacks them for their renewerable energy ideology and the resulting upward pressure on power bills and further decline in reliability.

I will take a ” bold step ” and predict that Turnbull has made a huge mistake in his rush to present a clear difference from labor on this issue. It is nothing more than a crude political attempt to attack Shorten and Turnbull does not do politics well.

All he has really achieved is handing Shorten a huge opportunity to be viewed by voters as ” standing for something ” and sticking to his ” core labor values ” on climate action and hip pocket issues for ordinary Working Australians ( whoever they are ! ). On the other hand Turnbull has painted a huge target on his chest as he backs off from another long held belief as he once again falters under pressure from Abbott and co. What does he actually stand for ? will be a much repeated labor line over coming weeks. I really believe Turnbull has blundered badly.

With regard to SSM, the shit fight within the coalition has not yet began.

No joy for Turnbull on either issue just more political pain.

Of course if I am wrong ( highly likely on past form ! ) I will deny everything !

Cheers and a great night to all.

Sohar
Guest

Not only has Labor maintained its 54-46 lead, Trumble has fallen back as preferred leader. What will Katharine Murphy write about? Nothing, probably.

cupidstunt
Guest

Goodbye Mr Harbourside mansion.

bemused
Guest

More on the gig economy and its effects.


However you paint it, the trouble with the gig economy is that it devalues both people and the skills they provide – especially in creative fields. It makes it harder for the talented ones to make a living, while encouraging all of them to believe that they’re disposable.

Unfortunately the gigging mentality also emboldens traditional employers to treat their workforce will the same lack of respect. Australia has seen some major exploitation scandals in recent times, often affecting some of society’s most vulnerable people.

Counterproductive

In the long-run a cut-rate gig economy isn’t just going to hurt workers, it’s also going to hurt those businesses hoping to benefit from it – unless they ensure the system is fair and equitable.

Many industries are starting to rely more heavily on freelancers, but for this to work there needs to be an adequate supply of skilled workers. This isn’t sustainable if you make it too difficult for quality freelancers to make a living because they’re undercut by low-skilled rivals in a gigging model.

Businesses won’t benefit from the gigging economy if they drive all the talent out of the marketplace, forcing them to become Uber drivers because it’s no longer possible to make a decent freelance living from their skills.

When proponents of the gig economy fall on hard times because they’ve decimated their labour market, it will be interesting to see what they’re prepared to do for a fiver.

http://www.theage.com.au/technology/gadgets-on-the-go/the-cutrate-gig-economy-sounds-bad-for-business-20171012-gz03c0.html?promote_channel=edmail&mbnr=MTAxMjU3NzE&eid=email:nnn-13omn624-ret_newsl-membereng:nnn-04%2F11%2F2013-technology-dom-technology-nnn-age-u&campaign_code=13ITE006&et_bid=29099547&list_name=119_age_tech&instance=2017-10-13–03-40–UTC

sprocket_
Guest

“And the High Court will so hold!”

May come back to haunt Mr Harbourside mansion, though he could argue tha he was relying on George Brandis’s opinion

C@tmomma
Guest

sprocket_ @ #1345 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 9:49 pm

Anton, I wonder how Malcolm’s cunning plan to pension off Brandis to Lord High Commissioner in London – the QLD casual vacancy to be filled by the booted Canavan will go down with the punters.

And don’t forget he wants to replace Brandis with the heartless incompetent, Christian Porter as AG.

C@tmomma
Guest

antonbruckner11 @ #1344 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 9:44 pm

I’m sure Malcolm still doesn’t believe, for a moment, that, on polling day, the electorate will boot him out for a cheapjack badly dressed union hack like Bill Shorten. His Magnificence will prevail. Boy, is he in for a shock.

I can’t wait to see him sail off into the sunset…on Sydney Harbour, near his house. : )

sprocket_
Guest

Anton, I wonder how Malcolm’s cunning plan to pension off Brandis to Lord High Commissioner in London – the QLD casual vacancy to be filled by the booted Canavan will go down with the punters.

antonbruckner11
Guest

I’m sure Malcolm still doesn’t believe, for a moment, that, on polling day, the electorate will boot him out for a cheapjack badly dressed union hack like Bill Shorten. His Magnificence will prevail. Boy, is he in for a shock.

C@tmomma
Guest

Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski 23m23 minutes ago
More
A government with no real interest in health or human rights or its people. http://urbanwronski.com/2017/10/15/a-government-with-no-real-interest-in-health-or-human-rights-or-its-people/

Ides of March
Guest

Alright, when will we get a 56-44 result? 😛

C@tmomma
Guest

With The Greens’ vote increasing, people are voting with their feet and telling Turnbull, ‘Do something real about Global Warming!!!’

Rossmcg
Guest

The report on Newspoll doesn’t attempt to gild the lily: Turnbull and the Libs are on the nose.

Where is Denis Shanahan these days. He could spin any poll in the coalition favour.

C@tmomma
Guest

Happy 21st Newspollday, Mr Turnbull! ; )

antonbruckner11
Guest

Sprocket – Boy, and the High Court still hasn’t effectively branded Malcolm a liar yet and booted out his Deputy PM.

Confessions
Guest

Thanks cupid! 21.

Tick…tick…tick…tick…

Confessions
Guest

Another good Newspoll result. How many is this now for MT? We must be getting close to the magic 30.

antonbruckner11
Guest

The liberal submarine really does look like it has settled on the bottom and is running out of air.

cupidstunt
Guest

21 down 9 to go

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