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SA Election 2010

Photo finishes: South Australia

Thursday, April 8 The result from the upper house has been declared, although ECSA’s consistently hopeless website offers no indication of the fact (UPDATE: Okay, I have managed to locate this. But it tells us very little: compare this with the Tasmanian Electoral Commission, which offered regularly updated PDFs with complete figures from the preference […]

South Australian election live

10.31pm. Antony Green on Twitter writes the swing was 1.7 per cent in marginal Labor seats, 7.7 per cent in safe Labor seats and 11.3 per cent in very safe Labor seats. 10.28pm. As the upper house count has progressed to 43.6 per cent, the ABC projection has consistently pointed to four Labor, four Liberals […]

Newspoll: 52-48 to Liberal in SA

The Australian reports the final South Australian Newspoll result has the Liberals 52-48 ahead on two-party preferred. Labor’s primary vote is 35.3 per cent (decimal places are apparently the thing in pre-election Newspolls, as are large sample sizes – this one is 1600, for a margin of error of about 2.5 per cent), while the […]

Advertiser: Kris Hanna trailing in Mitchell

The Advertiser has made the rather odd decision to target the independent-versus-Labor contest of Mitchell for one of its precious electorate-level opinion polls. The poll’s headline figure is a 54-46 two-party lead to Labor, but that’s not the real issue here. What matters is who finishes second out of Liberal candidate Peta McCance and independent […]

Educated guesswork

After much indecision, I have finally appended my South Australian election guide entries with predictions for each seat. To cut a long story short, I am tipping Labor to win 24 seats (loss of four), the Liberals to win 20 (gain of six), independents three (loss of one) and the Nationals zero (loss of one). […]

Galaxy: 51-49 to Liberal in South Australia

It appears today’s Galaxy poll in the Sunday Mail shows the Liberals with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. Mystifyingly, we learn the Liberals are ahead from the paper’s editorial as carried on the Herald-Sun site: and thus have to fill in the blanks ourselves. The two-party preferred figure was provided to me by a […]

Advertiser: 55-45 to Labor in Bright

The Advertiser’s latest marginal seat poll covers the southern coastal suburbs electorate of Bright, and it finds Labor incumbent Chloe Fox set to be easily re-elected against a Liberal swing of 2 per cent. After distribution of the 4 per cent undecided, the primary votes are 44 per cent for Labor, 41 per cent for […]

South Australian election minus nine days

Noteworthy happenings from the past five or six days’ worth of South Australian election action: • Antony Green summarises the preference tickets which have been lodged for purposes of South Australia’s unique provision to save incomplete ballots, which in other jurisdictions would be ruled informal (it does not necessarily follow, but can reasonably be inferred, […]

Newspoll: 50-50 in South Australia

With less than a fortnight until election day, Newspoll has finally come good with a poll of South Australian state voting intention, and it will hopefully provide a wake-up call to betting markets which continue to have the Liberals at an absurdly inflated $3.60. The two parties are in fact shown at level pegging, with […]

Advertiser: 53-47 to Labor in Newland

The third electorate-level Advertiser poll of the campaign (hope they correct that headline soon) is again consistent with the conventional wisdom in showing the Liberals performing less well in Newland than the neighbouring marginal Morialta, where a poll on Sunday pointed to a 10 per cent swing and a 52-48 margin in favour of the […]