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Presidential election wash-up

William BoweNov 11, 201626 Comments

Scattered observations on the state of polling and forecast models following the rude shock of the presidential election result.

United States elections live

William BoweNov 9, 2016837 Comments

Live coverage of the count for the US presidential election, and the rest.

Presidential election tracker: Clinton 47.7, Trump 43.9

Presidential election tracker: Clinton 47.7, Trump 43.9

William BoweNov 9, 201622 Comments

The poll tracker finds absolutely nothing in it in Florida, North Carolina and Nevada, but with Clinton holding enough of a firewall to survive in any case. Also featured: a detailed account of the Senate race.

Presidential election tracker: Clinton 48.6, Trump 44.2

Presidential election tracker: Clinton 48.6, Trump 44.2

William BoweNov 7, 201670 Comments

As Democrats find encouragement from early voting patterns, opinion polls also appear to be turning back in Hillary Clinton's favour.

Presidential election tracker: Clinton 48.0, Trump 45.0

Presidential election tracker: Clinton 48.0, Trump 45.0

William BoweNov 5, 201638 Comments

With just a few days to go, the latest presidential election polling suggests the recent turn in favour of Donald Trump may have passed its peak.

Presidential election tracker: Clinton 47.1, Trump 45.3

Presidential election tracker: Clinton 47.1, Trump 45.3

William BoweNov 3, 201617 Comments

Still a very tight race with less than a week to go, with Clinton grimly hanging on in both the national vote and projected electoral college count.

Presidential poll tracker (remodelled): Clinton 47.4, Trump 45.0

Presidential poll tracker (remodelled): Clinton 47.4, Trump 45.0

William BoweNov 1, 201611 Comments

Poll aggregation records a big lift for Donald Trump commencing at the start of the last week, even before substantially accounting for any impact of the FBI emails development.

Presidential election tracker: Clinton 49.4, Trump 42.7

Presidential election tracker: Clinton 49.4, Trump 42.7

William BoweOct 29, 201614 Comments

Last reading of the poll aggregate before we see the influence, if any, of today's headlines about Hillary Clinton's email server. Also featured: state level results and a national electoral college projection.

Presidential election tracker: Clinton 49.2, Trump 42.1

Presidential election tracker: Clinton 49.2, Trump 42.1

William BoweOct 23, 201635 Comments

Three emphatic debate victories in a row look to have pushed Hillary Clinton's lead to landslide proportions.

Presidential election tracker: Clinton 47.8, Trump 43.7

Presidential election tracker: Clinton 47.8, Trump 43.7

William BoweOct 4, 2016128 Comments

After all but closing the gap in the lead-up to last week's debate, national poll aggregation now finds Donald Trump on more familiar ground.

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