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US Politics


Scattered observations on the state of polling and forecast models following the rude shock of the presidential election result.

Presidential election wash-up

Scattered observations on the state of polling and forecast models following the rude shock of the presidential election result.

Live coverage of the count for the US presidential election, and the rest.

United States elections live

Live coverage of the count for the US presidential election, and the rest.

The poll tracker finds absolutely nothing in it in Florida, North Carolina and Nevada, but with Clinton holding enough of a firewall to survive in any case. Also featured: a detailed account of the Senate race.

Presidential election tracker: Clinton 47.7, Trump 43.9

The poll tracker finds absolutely nothing in it in Florida, North Carolina and Nevada, but with Clinton holding enough of a firewall to survive in any case. Also featured: a detailed account of the Senate race.

As Democrats find encouragement from early voting patterns, opinion polls also appear to be turning back in Hillary Clinton's favour.

Presidential election tracker: Clinton 48.6, Trump 44.2

As Democrats find encouragement from early voting patterns, opinion polls also appear to be turning back in Hillary Clinton's favour.

With just a few days to go, the latest presidential election polling suggests the recent turn in favour of Donald Trump may have passed its peak.

Presidential election tracker: Clinton 48.0, Trump 45.0

With just a few days to go, the latest presidential election polling suggests the recent turn in favour of Donald Trump may have passed its peak.

Still a very tight race with less than a week to go, with Clinton grimly hanging on in both the national vote and projected electoral college count.

Presidential election tracker: Clinton 47.1, Trump 45.3

Still a very tight race with less than a week to go, with Clinton grimly hanging on in both the national vote and projected electoral college count.

Poll aggregation records a big lift for Donald Trump commencing at the start of the last week, even before substantially accounting for any impact of the FBI emails development.

Presidential poll tracker (remodelled): Clinton 47.4, Trump 45.0

Poll aggregation records a big lift for Donald Trump commencing at the start of the last week, even before substantially accounting for any impact of the FBI emails development.

Last reading of the poll aggregate before we see the influence, if any, of today's headlines about Hillary Clinton's email server. Also featured: state level results and a national electoral college projection.

Presidential election tracker: Clinton 49.4, Trump 42.7

Last reading of the poll aggregate before we see the influence, if any, of today's headlines about Hillary Clinton's email server. Also featured: state level results and a national electoral college projection.

Three emphatic debate victories in a row look to have pushed Hillary Clinton's lead to landslide proportions.

Presidential election tracker: Clinton 49.2, Trump 42.1

Three emphatic debate victories in a row look to have pushed Hillary Clinton's lead to landslide proportions.

After all but closing the gap in the lead-up to last week's debate, national poll aggregation now finds Donald Trump on more familiar ground.

Presidential election tracker: Clinton 47.8, Trump 43.7

After all but closing the gap in the lead-up to last week's debate, national poll aggregation now finds Donald Trump on more familiar ground.