fed2016
William “The Poll Bludger” Bowe’s expert analysis walks Crikey readers though the 150 electorates in the House of Representatives. Entries feature details on candidates, demography, swing analysis and more. Please direct corrections or comments to pollbludger-AT-crikey.com.au

Coalition seats

Non-Coalition seats

(0.5%) PETRIE
Northern Brisbane, Queensland

FAIRFAX (0.0% vs LNP)
Sunshine Coast, Queensland

(0.8%) CAPRICORNIA
Central Coastal, Queensland

McEWEN (0.2%)
Melbourne Fringe, Victoria

(1.2%) LYONS
Central, Tasmania

INDI (0.2% vs LIB)
Northern Regional, Victoria

(1.4%) SOLOMON
Darwin/Palmerston, NT

DOBELL (0.4%)
Central Coast, NSW

(1.9%) HINDMARSH
Western Adelaide, SA

LINGIARI (0.9%)
Alice Springs/Outback, NT

(2.2%) BANKS
Southern Sydney, NSW

BENDIGO (1.3%)
Central, Victoria

(2.6%) BRADDON
North-Western, Tasmania

PATERSON (1.3%)
Central Coast, NSW

(2.6%) EDEN-MONARO
South Coast, NSW

LILLEY (1.3%)
Inner Brisbane, Queensland

(3.0%) LINDSAY
Western Sydney, NSW

MORETON (1.6%)
Southern Brisbane, Queensland

(3.1%) PAGE
North Coast, NSW

CHISHOLM (1.6%)
Eastern Melbourne, Victoria

(3.2%) DEAKIN
Eastern Melbourne, Victoria

PARRAMATTA (1.7%)
Western Sydney, NSW

(3.3%) ROBERTSON
Central Coast, NSW

RICHMOND (1.7%)
North Coast, NSW

(3.3%) MACARTHUR
Western Sydney, NSW

BRUCE (1.8%)
Eastern Melbourne, Victoria

(3.7%) BONNER
Inner Brisbane, Queensland

KENNEDY (2.2% vs LNP)
Far North/Interior, Queensland

(3.9%) CORANGAMITE
Western Coastal, Victoria

PERTH (2.6%)
Inner Perth, WA

(4.0%) COWAN
Northern Perth, WA

KINGSFORD SMITH (2.7%)
South-Eastern Sydney, NSW

(4.0%) GILMORE
South Coast, NSW

GREENWAY (2.8%)
Western Sydney, NSW

(4.0%) LA TROBE
Western Melbourne, Victoria

GRIFFITH (3.0%)
Northern Brisbane, Queensland

(4.0%) BASS
North-Eastern, Tasmania

JAGAJAGA (3.1%)
Northern Melbourne, Victoria

(4.2%) REID
Western Sydney, NSW

WAKEFIELD (3.4%)
Northern Adelaide, SA

(4.3%) BRISBANE
Inner Brisbane, Queensland

MELBOURNE PORTS (3.6%)
Inner Melbourne, Victoria

(4.4%) FORDE
Outer Brisbane, Queensland

OXLEY (3.8%)
Western Brisbane, Queensland

(4.5%) MACQUARIE
Western Sydney, NSW

BRAND (3.8%)
Southern Perth, WA

(4.9%) BURT
Southern Perth, WA

ISAACS (3.9%)
Eastern Melbourne, Victoria

(5.6%) DUNKLEY
South-Eastern Melbourne, Victoria

ADELAIDE (3.9%)
Inner Adelaide, SA

(5.7%) LEICHHARDT
Far North, Queensland

McMAHON (4.3%)
Western Sydney, NSW

(6.0%) HASLUCK
Eastern Perth, WA

RANKIN (4.8%)
Southern Brisbane, Queensland

(6.2%) HERBERT
Townsville, Queensland

BALLARAT (4.9%)
Central, Victoria

(6.5%) FLYNN
Central Coastal, Queensland

MAKIN (5.1%)
Eastern Adelaide, SA

(6.7%) DICKSON
Northern Brisbane, Queensland

FRANKLIN (5.1%)
Outer Hobart, Tasmania

(6.9%) LONGMAN
Northern Brisbane, Queensland

BARTON (5.2%)
Southern Sydney, NSW

(7.1%) BOOTHBY
Southern Adelaide, SA

BLAIR (5.3%)
Outer Brisbane, Queensland

(7.2%) CASEY
Eastern Melbourne, Victoria

MELBOURNE (5.3% vs ALP)
Inner Melbourne, Victoria

(7.6%) DAWSON
Northern Coastal, Queensland

FREMANTLE (5.8%)
Southern Perth, WA

(7.6%) SWAN
Inner Perth, WA

WERRIWA (5.9%)
Southern Sydney, NSW

(7.8%) BENNELONG
Northern Sydney, NSW

HUNTER (6.2%)
Hunter Region, NSW

(8.2%) ASTON
Eastern Melbourne, Victoria

WHITLAM (7.0%)
Illawara, NSW

(8.5%) RYAN
Western Brisbane, Queensland

SHORTLAND (7.2%)
Hunter Region, NSW

(8.9%) BOWMAN
Southern Brisbane, Queensland

HOTHAM (7.3%)
Eastern Melbourne, Victoria

(9.0%) HINKLER
Bundaberg, Queensland

CANBERRA (7.4%)
Southern Canberra, ACT

(9.2%) STIRLING
Northern Perth, WA

CORIO (7.7%)
Geelong, Victoria

(9.5%) PEARCE
Perth Fringe, WA

HOLT (9.1%)
Eastern Melbourne, Victoria

(9.8%) FISHER
Sunshine Coast, Queensland

NEWCASTLE (9.1%)
Central Coast, NSW

(9.9%) HIGGINS
Eastern Melbourne, Victoria

WATSON (9.2%)
Southern Sydney, NSW

(10.1%) WANNON
Western Rural, Victoria

KINGSTON (9.7%)
Southern Adelaide, SA

(10.1%) STURT
Eastern Adelaide, SA

BATMAN (10.6% vs GRN)
Northern Melbourne, Victoria

(11.0%) GOLDSTEIN
Southern Melbourne, Victoria

CHIFLEY (11.2%)
Western Sydney, NSW

(11.1%) KOOYONG
Eastern Melbourne, Victoria

MARIBYRNONG (11.4%)
Western Melbourne, Victoria

(11.8%) FLINDERS
South-Eastern, Victoria

CUNNINGHAM (11.9%)
Illawara, NSW

(11.8%) McMILLAN
West Gippsland, Victoria

LALOR (12.2%)
Eastern Melbourne, Victoria

(11.8%) WRIGHT
South-Eastern, Queensland

BLAXLAND (12.4%)
Western Sydney, NSW

(12.0%) HUGHES
Southern Sydney, NSW

FENNER (12.6%)
Northern Canberra, ACT

(12.5%) MAYO
Outer Adelaide, SA

CALWELL (13.9%)
Northern Melbourne, Victoria

(12.7%) MOORE
Northern Perth, WA

FOWLER (13.9%)
Western Sydney, NSW

(12.8%) CANNING
Outer Perth, WA

PORT ADELAIDE (14.0%)
Northern Adelaide, SA

(13.0%) McPHERSON
Gold Coast, Queensland

SYDNEY (14.3%)
Inner Sydney, NSW

(13.1%) COWPER
Central Coast, NSW

SCULLIN (14.3%)
Northern Melbourne, Victoria

(13.2%) WIDE BAY
Central Coast, Queensland

WILLS (15.2% vs GRN)
Western Melbourne, Victoria

(13.3%) TANGNEY
Southern Perth, WA

DENISON (15.5% vs ALP)
Hobart, Tasmania

(13.5%) GREY
Outback, SA

GORTON (16.1%)
Northern Melbourne, Victoria

(13.7%) HUME
South-Eastern, NSW

GELLIBRAND (16.5%)
Western Melbourne, Victoria

(14.0%) FORREST
South West, WA

GRAYNDLER (18.1%)
Inner Sydney, NSW

(14.2%) LYNE
Central Coast, NSW

(14.4%) FADDEN
Gold Coast, Queensland

(14.4%) MENZIES
Eastern Melbourne, Victoria

(14.7%) CALARE
Central West, NSW

(15.0%) O’CONNOR
Southern Regional, WA

(15.4%) NORTH SYDNEY
Inner Sydney, NSW

(15.5%) WARRINGAH
Sydney North Shore, NSW

(15.8%) GIPPSLAND
East Gippsland, Victoria

(15.9%) DURACK
Northern Regional, WA

(16.5%) GROOM
Darling Downs, Queensland

(16.5%) BARKER
Eastern Rural, SA

(17.3%) COOK
Southern Sydney, NSW

(18.0%) MONCRIEFF
Gold Coast, Queensland

(18.3%) WENTWORTH
Eastern Sydney, NSW

(18.7%) CURTIN
Western Perth, WA

(18.8%) MACKELLAR
North Shore, NSW

(19.2%) RIVERINA
Rural Southern, NSW

(20.0%) PARKES
Interior, NSW

(20.0%) NEW ENGLAND
North-Eastern, NSW

(20.9%) MURRAY
Rural Northern, Victoria

(21.1%) BRADFIELD
North Shore, NSW

(21.6%) FARRER
Interior, Queensland

(21.7%) MITCHELL
North Shore, NSW

(22.3%) MARANOA
Southern Interior, Queensland

(23.7%) MALLEE
North-Western, Victoria

Key – Australian Labor Party Liberal Party The Nationals Liberal National Party (Qld) Country Liberal Party (NT) Independent The Greens Palmer United Party Katter’s Australian Party