fed2016

Maranoa

Margin: Liberal National 22.3%
Region: Southern Interior, Queensland
Outgoing member: Bruce Scott (Liberal National)

In a nutshell: Barring a boilover, Bruce Scott stands to be succeeded by David Littleproud after 26 years as member for the rural Queensland seat of Maranoa.

Candidates in ballot paper order

maranoa-lnp

maranoa-alp

maranoa-kap

DAVE KERRIGAN
Labor (centre)

MYFANWY SCHENK
Family First

KATHERINE HOMPES
Greens

SHERRILYN CHURCH
Rise Up Australia Party

LUKE ARBUCKLE
CountryMinded

RICK GURNETT
Katter’s Australian Party (bottom)

DAVID LITTLEPROUD
Liberal National Party (top)

LYNETTE KEEHN
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation

Created at federation and fairly constant in its boundaries ever since, Maranoa covers a vast expanse of south-western Queensland accounting for about 40% of the state’s surface area. Most of its voters are concentrated at the inner end of the state’s populous south-eastern corner, including the centres of Kingaroy, Dalby and Warwick to the north, west and south of Toowoomba (which has formed the basis of Groom since 1984, and Darling Downs beforehand). Centres further inland include Roma and Charleville on the Warrego Highway, and Barcaldine and Longreach on the Landsborough Highway further north. The seat’s Liberal National Party margin after the 2013 election is 22.4%, making it the third safest Coalition seat in the country after Parkes in New South Wales and Mallee in Victoria. It will be vacated at the coming election by the retirement of Bruce Scott, who has held it for the Nationals since 1990.

Reflecting a familiar pattern in rural Queensland, Maranoa started life as a Labor stronghold and progressively moved to the other extreme with the decline of the shearing and railway workforce. The first changeover occurred in 1921 upon the death of the seat’s inaugural Labor member, Jim Page, initiating a by-election won for the Country Party by James Hunter. The seat returned to the Labor fold when Hunter retired in 1940, but Labor’s Francis Baker was unseated after a single term, emerging the only Labor member to lose his seat amid the party’s national landslide in 1943. It was then held for the Country Party by Charles Adermann until he moved to the new seat of Fisher with the expansion of parliament in 1949, which he would eventually bequeath to his son Evan in 1972.

Adermann’s successor at the 1949 election was Charles Russell, who quit the Country Party less than a year after his election and unsuccessfully contested the seat as an independent in both 1951 and 1954, falling 1.1% short on the latter occasion in the absence of a Labor candidate. That would mark the last occasion when the Country Party’s grip on the seat was seriously troubled, a 9.7% swing at the 1966 election pushing the margin into double digits where it has remained ever since. The National/Country members through this period were Wilfred Brindlecombe until 1966, James Corbett until 1980, and Ian Cameron until 1990. There were suggestions ahead of the 1998 election that a threat might loom from One Nation, but in the event they could only manage third place behind Labor on 22.4%. A 9.7% swing at the 1966 election pushed the margin well into double digits, where it has remained ever since.

Bruce Scott succeeded Ian Cameron at the 1990 election and went on to serve in the junior ministry as Veterans Affairs Minister for the first two terms of the Howard government, before losing the position when the Nationals’ share of the spoils was reduced following its weak electoral performance in 2001. In October 2012 he became Deputy Speaker, filling the vacancy created by Anna Burke’s rise to the Speakership following Peter Slipper’s resignation, and has retained the position in government. Barnaby Joyce had hoped to facilitate his move from the Senate to the House by replacing Scott in Maranoa at the last election, but Scott was determined to serve another term and Joyce dismissed the notion of challenging him for preselection, saying it would be “self-indulgent personality politics”. He instead opted to cross the state boundary and contest the northern New South Wales seat of New England.

A preselection held to choose Scott’s successor last October was won by David Littleproud, manager of a Suncorp bank branch in Warwick and the son of Brian Littleproud, a Nationals member of state parliament from 1983 to 2001. Other candidates were Cameron O’Neil, a Maranoa councillor who works for the Queensland Disaster Management Committee, and had been spoken of as Littleproud’s strongest rival; Lachlan Douglas, southern Queensland regional manager for Rabobank; Alison Krieg, a grazier from Blackall; and Rick Gurnett, a grazier from Charleville.

Analysis by William Bowe. Read William’s blog, The Poll Bludger.

Back to Crikey’s House of Representatives election guide