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Fran’s our man

William Bowe Wednesday, July 2, 2008 141 Comments

The Age reports that the Federal Court has ruled on Labor’s appeal against its 12-vote defeat in the Victorian seat of

Play it again, Fran

William Bowe Wednesday, January 30, 2008 76 Comments

Two months after the November 24 federal election, the fun is still not over: Labor’s candidate for McEwen, Rob Mitchell, has launched a challenge against his 12-vote defeat at the hands of Liberal member Fran Bailey, who won on a recount that overturned Mitchell’s initial seven-vote win. The disparity between the two counts can essentially […]

Post-match report: country Victoria

William Bowe Tuesday, January 15, 2008 14 Comments

For the most part, the November 24 federal election saw Labor pick up swings of similar magnitude in Victoria across city and country seats, notwithstanding the unusually small swings in the inner-city. However, one intriguing variation with respect to country Victoria was a relatively weak Labor performance east of Melbourne, particularly in the West Gippsland […]

Post-match report: Melbourne

Post-match report: Melbourne

William Bowe Wednesday, January 2, 2008 739 Comments

In Melbourne as elsewhere, the November 24 election produced a pattern of strong swings in outer suburbs and weak ones nearer the city, which cut across the partisan divide. The swing against veteran Liberal moderate Petro Georgiou in blue-ribbon Kooyong was just 0.05 per cent, while Peter Costello faced a similarly mild 1.7 per cent […]

Post-match report: South Australia

William Bowe Thursday, December 20, 2007 557 Comments

Welcome to episode two in the slower-than-anticipated Post-Match Report round-up of federal electorate results, which today brings us to South Australia. Of the three seats that were highly marginal for the Liberals going into the election, Kingston emerged with the smallest Labor margin following a relatively subdued 4.5 per cent swing. The swing was reasonably […]

The Lord taketh away

William Bowe Tuesday, December 18, 2007 489 Comments

The verdict from the McEwen recount is in: Labor candidate Rob Mitchell’s six vote win has been overturned, and Liberal member Fran Bailey declared re-elected by just 12 votes. This gives the result level pegging with the Liberals’ 1974 win in Stirling as the closest federal electorate result of modern times. Labor is still considering […]

Post-match report: Tasmania

William Bowe Wednesday, December 12, 2007 379 Comments

With electorate results progressively being declared, I will start appending my election guide entries with overviews of results for each seat. All five seats in Tasmania have been declared, so that seems a good place to start. Bass provided Labor supporters with cause for nagging doubt during the early part of the count, with the […]

A bee’s donger

William Bowe Saturday, December 8, 2007 664 Comments

This time yesterday, Liberal member Fran Bailey held on to a 32-vote lead in McEwen which, though rapidly diminishing, was calculated by Antony Green to be 77 per cent likely to hold after the few remaining votes were counted. Those votes are now in: the last few absent votes broke 100-93 in favour of Labor’s […]

Consolation prizes

William Bowe Friday, December 7, 2007 627 Comments

On election night and the following day, the best bet seemed to be that Labor would emerge with between 86 and 88 seats. After that, Labor watched leads disappear in one seat after another. Liberal candidates took the lead in McEwen and La Trobe on the Monday after polling day, followed by Dickson and Swan […]

Late mail

William Bowe Sunday, December 2, 2007 683 Comments

There are no fewer than seven seats which are still too close to call a week after polling day, with less than 0.3 per cent separating the two parties. The AEC’s official Close Seats list further includes Flynn and La Trobe, but these are all but certain to respectively go with Labor and Liberal. Corangamite […]