New South Wales election 2015

Dubbo

Margin: Nationals 31.3%
Region: Regional Western
Federal: Parkes

Candidates in ballot paper order

dubbo-nat

dubbo-alp

BEN SHEPHERD
No Land Tax

TROY GRANT
Nationals (top)

PETER SCHERER
Christian Democratic Party

ROD PRYOR
Independent

STEPHEN LAWRENCE
Labor (bottom)

COLIN HAMILTON
Independent

MATT PARMETER
Greens

2011 BOOTH RESULTS MAP

PAST RESULTS

DEMOGRAPHICS

Two-party preferred booth results from 2011 state election showing Nationals-versus-Independent results in Dubbo and Nationals-versus-Labor results in Orange and Barwon. Nationals majority in green, Labor in red and Independent in grey. New boundaries in thicker blue lines, old ones in thinner red lines. Boundary data courtesy of Ben Raue of The Tally Room.

Dubbo is held for the Nationals by Troy Grant, who has risen to his party’s leadership during his debut parliamentary term after gaining the seat from independent Dawn Fardell at the 2011 election. Encompassing the town of Dubbo together with a shifting array of surrounding rural territory, the electorate has been substantially altered by the redistribution, reflecting a rearrangement that turns Orange from its eastern into its southern neighbour. The bulk of the geographic area of the old Dubbo, including the major population centre of Parkes and around 20,000 voters overall, now forms the western part of Orange, while the eastern part of redrawn Dubbo takes in territory around Mudgee that had formerly been in Orange, encompassing around 19,000 voters. There has also been smaller gains from Barwon at the western end and Bathurst in the south-east.

Dubbo frequently changed hands between Labor and the Country Party between 1930 and 1959, but the decline of farm and railway labour made Labor less competitive over time. The Liberals held the seat from 1959 until 1981, when Gerry Peacocke gained it for the Nationals upon the retirement of recently deposed Liberal leader John Mason. The Nationals preselected local talk radio host Richard Mutton when Peacocke retired in 1999, but long-serving Dubbo mayor Tony McGrane ran against him as an independent and won by 14 votes. McGrane died of cancer in September 2004, but the seat remained in independent hands at the ensuing by-election, when Dawn Fardell prevailed over Nationals candidate Jan Cowley by a 5.2% margin. Fardell held on by 0.9% at the 2007 election, but the tide of the 2011 election delivered an easy victory to Nationals candidate Troy Grant, a local police inspector.

Grant’s swift rise in his debut parliamentary term began with his promotion to the ministry in the reshuffle that followed Barry O’Farrell’s departure in April 2014, when he assumed the portfolios of hospitality, gaming and racing and arts. When Andrew Stoner announced his resignation as Nationals leader and Deputy Premier in October 2014, Grant emerged as the only candidate to replace him after his most obvious rival, Murrumbidgee MP Adrian Piccoli, announced he was content to remain as deputy, despite having the endorsement of Stoner. Grant also exchanged his portfolios at this time for trade and investment, regional infrastructure and services and tourism and major events.

Corrections, complaints and feedback to William Bowe at pollbludger-at-bigpond-dot-com. Read William’s blog, The Poll Bludger.

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