New South Wales election 2015

Mulgoa

Margin: Liberal 12.4%
Region: Western Sydney
Federal: McMahon (49%)/Lindsay (35%)/Fowler (12%)/Macarthur (4%)

Candidates in ballot paper order

mulgoa-lib

mulgoa-alp

TODD CARNEY
Labor (bottom)

JENNIFER SCHOLFIELD
Christian Democratic Party

KINGSLEY LIU
Greens

TANYA DAVIES
Liberal (top)

TANIA CANTO
No Land Tax

2011 BOOTH RESULTS MAP

PAST RESULTS
(MULGOA/BADGERYS CREEK)

DEMOGRAPHICS

Two-party preferred booth results from 2011 state election showing Liberal majority in blue and Labor in red. New boundaries in thicker blue lines, old ones in thinner red lines. Boundary data courtesy of Ben Raue of The Tally Room.

The electorate of Mulgoa covers rapidly growing outer western suburbs south of Penrith, an area that turned on Labor with particular force in 2011. A margin of 11.3% from 2007 was demolished by a swing of 23.2%, delivering the seat to the Liberals for the first time in its history.

As redrawn by the redistribution, the electorate covers three distinct population areas separated by semi-rural territory: Glenmore Park in the north-west, which is a southern extension of Penrith; an area around St Clair in the north-east; and the edges of Sydney’s south-western suburban corridor in the electorate’s south-east. The latter area has been gained in the redistribution, adding 7750 voters at Cecil Hills from Liverpool and a smaller number in Abbotsbury immediately to the north from Smithfield. The redistribution has also redrawn the electorate’s north-eastern corner so as to add territory east of St Clair from Smithfield, while transferring an area around St Marys to its north to Londonderry. The changes have added 0.4% to the Liberal margin.

Mulgoa first existed as an electorate for one term after the 1988 election, before it and neighbouring Minchinbury were replaced by Badgerys Creek and St Marys in 1991. Tony Aquilina held Mulgoa for Labor after the 1988 election, then moved to St Marys. With the recreation of Mulgoa in 1999, the seat passed to Diane Beamer, whose win in Badgerys Creek at the 1995 election was a crucial factor in bringing Labor under Bob Carr to power with a one-seat majority. Mulgoa combined the northern part of the Badgerys Creek electorate with territory from St Marys, which greatly improved Beamer’s electoral position.

With Beamer retiring at the 2011 election, the seat was gained for the Liberals by Tanya Davies, a Penrith councillor. Labor’s candidate at the coming election will be Todd Carney, a local tradesman and former staffer to federal Lindsay MP David Bradbury. He is not to be confused with the NRL player of the same name, who is noted for his off-field indiscretions.