New South Wales election 2015

Oatley

Margin: Liberal 3.8%
Region: St George
Federal: Banks

Candidates in ballot paper order

oatley-lib

oatley-alp

MARK COURE
Liberal (top)

DEAN EADES
No Land Tax

PHILIPPA CLARK
Greens

O’BRAY SMITH
Labor (bottom)

WAYNE LAWRENCE
Christian Democratic Party

2011 BOOTH RESULTS MAP

PAST RESULTS
(OATLEY/GEORGES RIVER)

DEMOGRAPHICS

Two-party preferred booth results from 2011 state election showing Liberal majority in blue and Labor in red. New boundaries in thicker blue lines, old ones in thinner red lines. Boundary data courtesy of Ben Raue of The Tally Room.

The southern Sydney seat of Oatley gave the Liberals the narrowest of their many wins at the 2011 election, when a 14.9% swing put them over the line by 0.5%, but their position has now been strengthened by the redistribution. The electorate covers the northern bank of the Georges River about 12 kilometres south-west of the central Sydney, from Blakehurst west to Lugarno and north to the rail line at Narwee. Changes to its eastern boundary with Kogarah have added 8000 voters in the riverfront suburbs of Connells Point and Blakehurst, while removing over 9000 in the western part of Hurstville further to the north. In the north, the boundary with Lakemba is amended to add 6000 voters in southern Riverwood and northern Peakhurst, and remove 2000 in parts of Narwee and Beverly Hills. Liberal strength in the added riverfront suburbs more than cancels out Labor support in the areas gained from Lakemba, boosting their margin from 0.5% to 3.8%.

Oatley was created at the 2007 election in place of abolished Georges River, which was usually in conservative hands for the first four decades after its creation in 1930, but became marginal thereafter. Frank Walker gained it for Labor a by-election in 1970, and went on to serve as a minister in the Wran-Unsworth government. Walker was unseated in the 1988 election defeat by Liberal candidate Terry Griffiths, whose position was strengthened by the redistribution that took effect at the 1991 election. Griffiths went on to serve as Police Minister from 1992 to 1994, but was then compelled to resign from cabinet and the Liberal Party after it emerged that a number of staff members had made complaints of sexual harassment against him. Marie Ficarra retained the seat for the Liberals at the 1995 election, but fell victim to an unfavourable redistribution and an 8.3% swing in 1999. She later returned to parliament as a member of the Legislative Council in 2007.

Labor’s member from 1999 to the defeat of 2011 was Kevin Greene, a former primary school headmaster who consolidated his hold on the seat with a further 7.4% swing in 2003. Greene served in cabinet during Labor’s final term in office, although he was one of five ministers earmarked for demotion by Morris Iemma in September 2008, prompting the Right faction rebellion that cost him his job. His defeat at the 2011 election came at the hands of Mark Coure, formerly a Kogarah councillor. Coure‚Äôs Labor opponent at the coming election is O’Bray Smith, manager of the midwifery of the Royal Prince Alfred Hospital, who won preselection ahead of Kogarah councillor Jacinta Petroni. According to the St George & Sutherland Shire Leader, Kevin Greene received “overtures” from the ALP to run again, as did his wife, Frances Greene.