Queensland election 2015

Glass House

Margin: Liberal National 20.4%
Region: Sunshine Coast Hinterland
Federal: Fairfax/Fisher/Longman

Candidates in ballot paper order

glasshouse-lnp

glasshouse-alp

BRENT HAMPSTEAD
Labor (bottom)

SCOTT HIGGINS
Palmer United Party

DAVID KNOBEL
Greens

ANDREW POWELL
Liberal National (top)

ELECTORATE MAP

2012 ELECTION RESULTS

DEMOGRAPHICS

Electorate boundary map outline courtesy of
Ben Raue of The Tally Room.

Taking its name from a mountain range about 90 kilometres north of Brisbane, Glass House was created in 2001 and held by Labor for its first three terms, before falling to current Liberal National Party member Andrew Powell in 2009 on the back of a favourable redistribution and a 5.8% swing. The seat had a previous life from 1986 to 1992, being won for the Nationals in 1986 by Bill Newton, hitherto the member for Caboolture, before falling to Labor’s Jon Sullivan with the election of Wayne Goss’s government in 1989. After the seat’s abolition, Sullivan and Newton faced off at successive elections in Caboolture, with Sullivan victorious on both occasions. Sullivan was then defeated at the 1998 election by Bill Feldman of One Nation, after his 39.1% to 29.9% primary vote lead was overturned on Nationals preferences, and later returned to politics as federal member for Longman from 2007 to 2010.

Glass House had a notional Nationals margin of 4.3% when it was re-created in 2001, but this was easily accounted for at the ensuing election by a 13.9% swing to Labor’s Carolyn Male. Male suffered only mild swings in 2004 and 2006, before redistribution fundamentally changed the electorate by transferring Labor-voting areas of Caboolture to Pumicestone in the south, and adding conservative-voting areas around Eudlo and Obi Obi in the north and Woodford in the west. This reduced the Labor margin from 7.7% to precisely zero, prompting Male to jump ship for the new seat of Pine Rivers. Male originally sought endorsement for the new seat of Morayfield, but appeared set for defeat in the preselection at the hands of Mark Ryan. The impasse was resolved when Linda Lavarch, whose seat of Kurwongbah had effectively been replaced by Pine Rivers, announced her retirement.

In Male’s absence, Glass House was easily won for the LNP by Andrew Powell, who went on to boost his 5.8% margin in 2009 to 20.4% in 2012. Powell had variously worked for the Department of Defence in Canberra, the Department of Premier and Cabinet and the Department of Child Safety. He was promoted to shadow cabinet in the environment portfolio when Campbell Newman became leader in March 2011, and has maintained it in government together with heritage.

Corrections, complaints and feedback to William Bowe at pollbludger-at-bigpond-dot-com. Read William’s blog, The Poll Bludger.

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