Victorian election 2014

Bayswater

Margin: Liberal 6.8%
Region: Eastern Metropolitan
Federal: Aston (50%)/Deakin (25%)/La Trobe (14%)/Casey (12%)

Candidates in ballot paper order

bayswater-lib

bayswater-alp

JEREMY CASS
Country Alliance

ROBERT SMYTH
Animal Justice

TRISTAN CONWAY
Australian Christians

TONY DIB
Labor (bottom)

JAMES TENNANT
Greens

HEIDI VICTORIA
Liberal (top)

JOHN CARBONARI
Independent

2010 BOOTH RESULTS MAP

PAST RESULTS

DEMOGRAPHICS

RESULTS MAP: Two-party preferred booth results from 2010 state election showing Liberal majority in blue and Labor in red. New boundaries in thicker blue lines, old ones in thinner red lines. Boundary data courtesy of Ben Raue of The Tally Room.

PAST RESULTS: Break at 1999 represents effect of the subsequent redistribution.

DEMOGRAPHICS: Based on 2012 census. School Leavers is percentage of high school graduates divided by persons over 18. LOTE is number identified as speaking language other than English at home, divided by total population.

The suburb of Bayswater is located 28 kilometres to the east of central Melbourne, and gives its name to an electorate that has been in Liberal hands for all but one term since its creation in 1992. However, the Liberals’ hold on the seat has been weakened by the redistribution, which cuts 3.8% out of a 10.6% margin from the 2010 election. This reflects substantial knock-on effects from the abolition of nearby Mitcham, Scoresby and Kilsyth, and the creation in their place of Ringwood, Rowville and Croydon. The resulting realignment pushes Bayswater eastwards into the Dandenong Ranges foothills, where 11,000 voters in Kilsyth South, The Basin and eastern Boronia are gained from Monbulk, along with 5300 voters at Bayswater North from Kilsyth. At the western end, 4000 voters at Ringwood are transferred to the new electorate of the same name, while a revision of the southern boundary with Ferntree Gully sees the latter gain most of Wantirna and both seats gain and lose parts of Boronia, collectively moving 12,000 voters to Ferntree Gully and 4300 to Bayswater.

Bayswater had a notional Labor margin of 2.9% at the time of its creation, the predecessor seat of Ringwood having been among the traditionally Liberal seats that contributed to Labor’s election wins in 1982, 1985 and 1988. However, this was erased by a 10.0% swing when Jeff Kennett came to power at the 1992 election, when Gordon Ashley won the seat for the Liberals by a margin of 7.1%. The redistribution before the 2002 election boosted the Liberals by 1.7%, but this proved insufficient in the face of a 9.2% swing to Labor, whose candidate Peter Lockwood defeated Ashley by a margin of 2.7%.

Ashley again won local preselection to contest the seat in 2006, but had his endorsement withdrawn by the party’s administration committee because, among other things, it felt that at 65 he was too old. The new Liberal candidate was Heidi Victoria, owner of a local photography business. Ashley ran against Victoria as an independent and polled 9.2%, but did not muddy the waters enough to prevent her winning the seat, with help from the Bracks government’s broken election promise on tolls for the Eastlink motorway project. Victoria picked up a further swing of 7.7% in 2010, when the seat was again contested for Labor by Peter Lockwood.

In the reshuffle that followed Denis Napthine’s ascension to the premiership, Victoria was promoted to cabinet in the arts, women’s affairs and consumer affairs portfolios, having previously held parliamentary secretary status since November 2009. The women’s affairs position was contentious, as Victoria had generated a certain amount of controversy through her conservative position on abortion. Victoria’s Labor opponent at the election is Tony Dib, a Maroondah councillor.