Victorian election 2014

Bulleen

Margin: Liberal 15.1%
Region: Eastern Metropolitan
Federal: Menzies

Outgoing member: Nicholas Kotsiras (Liberal)

Candidates in ballot paper order

bulleen-lib

bulleen-alp

BEN CRONLY
Greens

ADAM RUNDELL
Labor (bottom)

ELENI ARAPOGLOU
Australian Christians

MATTHEW GUY
Liberal (top)

2010 BOOTH RESULTS MAP

PAST RESULTS

DEMOGRAPHICS

RESULTS MAP: Two-party preferred booth results from 2010 state election showing Liberal majority in blue and Labor in red. New boundaries in thicker blue lines, old ones in thinner red lines. Boundary data courtesy of Ben Raue of The Tally Room.

PAST RESULTS: Break at 1999 represents effect of the subsequent redistribution.

DEMOGRAPHICS: Based on 2012 census. School Leavers is percentage of high school graduates divided by persons over 18. LOTE is number identified as speaking language other than English at home, divided by total population.

Bulleen covers Liberal-voting suburbs approximately 20 kilometres to the north-east of central Melbourne, extending eastwards from Bulleen itself through Doncaster to Templestowe, with the Yarra forming the electorate’s northern boundary. The electorate can lay claim to a number of points of demographic distinction, having the state’s highest proportion of Greek speakers, the third highest proportion of Chinese language speakers, and the second oldest median age in metropolitan Melbourne after the retirement haven of Nepean. It has been substantially redrawn in the redistribution with the abolition of its southern neighbour Doncaster, absorbing most of the suburb of Doncaster for a gain of 11,500 voters. At the eastern end, Doncaster East has been transferred to Warrandyte, accounting for 2700 voters. However, the margin is little affected, shifting 0.3% in favour of Labor.

The electorate was created in 1985 and has at all times been held by the Liberals, present member Nick Kotsiras having unseated David Perrin for preselection at the 1999 election amid grumbling about a party membership drive among the Greek community. A 10.1% swing in 2002 brought the seat well into the marginal zone, but Kotsiras was able to steady the ship with a 5.8% swing in 2006, followed by a further 6.4% swing in 2010. Kotsiras was an adviser to Jeff Kennett before entering parliament, and rose to the shadow ministry in the wake of the 2002 election debacle, holding the innovation and multicultural affairs portfolios going into the 2010 election. He lost the innovation portfolio with the election of the Baillieu government, but gained energy and resources in the reshuffle held when Denis Napthine became Premier in March 2013, before moving to the back bench in March 2014 after announcing he would retire at the election.

The Liberals are using Kotsiras’s vacancy to make a lower house berth available to Matthew Guy, Planning Minister and member for the upper house region of Northern Metropolitan, who is widely rated as a potential party leader. Prior to entering parliament, Guy was an adviser to Jeff Kennett and Senator Rod Kemp, and later worked for the Victorian Farmers Federation and as a manager at the Australian Securities and Investments Commission. Upon entering parliament he immediately entered shadow cabinet in the planning portfolio, which he has retained ever since. He further took over the multicultural affairs portfolio from Kotsiras in March 2014.