Victorian election 2014

Carrum

Margin: Liberal 0.3%
Region: South Eastern Metropolitan
Federal: Isaacs (73%)/Dunkley (27%)

Candidates in ballot paper order

carrum-lib

carrum-alp

RICHARD VERNAY
Family First

DONNA BAUER
Liberal (top)

SONYA KILKENNY
Labor (bottom)

HENRY KELSALL
Greens

MARGARET QUINN
Rise Up Australia

2010 BOOTH RESULTS MAP

PAST RESULTS

DEMOGRAPHICS

RESULTS MAP: Two-party preferred booth results from 2010 state election showing Liberal majority in blue and Labor in red. New boundaries in thicker blue lines, old ones in thinner red lines. Boundary data courtesy of Ben Raue of The Tally Room.

PAST RESULTS: Break at 1999 represents effect of the subsequent redistribution.

DEMOGRAPHICS: Based on 2012 census. School Leavers is percentage of high school graduates divided by persons over 18. LOTE is number identified as speaking language other than English at home, divided by total population.

Labor’s defeat in the outer suburban bayside electorate of Carrum at the 2010 election was only its second since the seat was created in 1976, and reflected the backlash the Brumby government suffered in areas serviced by the troubled Frankston rail line. The electorate is centred 30 kilometres to the south-east of central Melbourne, encompassing Bonbeach, Carrum and Seaford. The changes in the redistribution have been substantial, costing it over half its bayside frontage at the northern end and expanding it further inland. The northern transfer encompasses over 22,000 voters in Aspendale, Aspendale Gardens, Edithvale, Chelsea and Chelsea Heights, who go to Mordialloc, while the 21,000 voters of Carrum Downs, Seaford, Skye and Sandhurst are gained from Cranbourne. This entails the exchange of a marginal area for one that leans to Labor, and cuts the Liberal margin from 2.0% to 0.3%.

The Liberals’ previous victory in Carrum came in 1996, which was thought particularly demoralising for Labor as it had retained the seat amid Jeff Kennett’s landslide victory four years earlier. The seat’s previous member, Jenny Lindell, narrowly recovered it for Labor with a 1.3% swing in 1999, before securing her hold with a 10.9% swing in the Steve Bracks landslide of 2002. An early indication of the impact of transport issues was provided by a 5.5% swing to the Liberals in 2006, partly reflecting the Bracks government’s decision to place tolls on the EastLink road project, which has its southern terminus at Carrum Downs. Lindell nonetheless retained the seat by a seemingly comfortable margin of 6.7%, but was overwhelmed by a swing of 8.7% in 2010.

Carrum has since been held for the Liberals by Donna Bauer, who had previously worked as corporate communications consultant for the City of Greater Dandenong. Labor’s candidate at the election will be Sonya Kilkenny, a commercial lawyer from Seaford who ran in Dunkley at last year’s federal election.

cuReports throughout the campaign have suggested that the Liberals are generally more confident about Carrum than the other “sandbelt” marginals, particularly Mordialloc. In the final week, the Herald-Sun variously reported that the Liberals were “confident” about the seat, and that they considered themselves “favourites”.