Victorian election 2014

Caulfield

Margin: Liberal 9.8%
Region: Southern Metropolitan
Federal: Melbourne Ports (62%)/Goldstein (38%)

Candidates in ballot paper order

caulfield-lib

caulfield-alp

JOHN BARRY MYERS
Independent

TIM BAXTER
Greens

TERESA HORVATH
Rise Up Australia

JOSH BURNS
Labor (bottom)

DAVID SOUTHWICK
Liberal (top)

2010 BOOTH RESULTS MAP

PAST RESULTS

DEMOGRAPHICS

RESULTS MAP: Two-party preferred booth results from 2010 state election showing Liberal majority in blue and Labor in red. New boundaries in thicker blue lines, old ones in thinner red lines. Boundary data courtesy of Ben Raue of The Tally Room.

PAST RESULTS: Break at 1999 represents effect of the subsequent redistribution.

DEMOGRAPHICS: Based on 2012 census. School Leavers is percentage of high school graduates divided by persons over 18. LOTE is number identified as speaking language other than English at home, divided by total population.

Located in Melbourne’s inner southern suburbs, the electorate of Caulfield has never been held by Labor in a history going back to 1927, although an “Independent Socialist” with links to the party held the seat from 1943 to 1945. The margin was reduced to 2.3% at the Liberals’ nadir in 2002, but this was followed by swings of 5.3% in 2006 and 3.9% in 2010. The backbone of the electorate consists of the strongly Liberal suburbs of Caulfield, Caulfield North and Caulfield South, which are supplemented in the west by younger, left-leaning, inner-city territory at Balaclava and St Kilda East, with St Kilda Road forming the western boundary. This area is the focal point of Melbourne’s Jewish community, which accounts for 31.1% of the electorate’s population, far ahead of second-placed Bentleigh on 8.4%. The redistribution has cut 1.7% from the Liberal margin by adding marginal areas to the east of Caulfield Racecourse, encompassing 2750 voters in Caulfield East, Glen Huntly and Ormond who were formerly in Oakleigh, while redrawing the northern boundary with Prahran so that 1700 voters are gained in Balaclava and St Kilda east of St Kilda Road, and 1600 are lost in St Kilda East.

Caulfield is held for the Liberals by David Southwick, a former events management company owner who came to the seat in 2010 upon the retirement of Helen Shardey, the member since 1996. Shardey’s retirement announcement in June 2009 followed reports that she faced a preselection challenge from Southwick, who narrowly failed to win an upper house seat in Southern Metropolitan in 2006. The challenge was said to have been opposed by Ted Baillieu, a factional colleague of Shardey and an opponent Southwick’s backers in the Michael Kroger faction. In April 2013, Southwick was promoted to parliamentary secretary for police and emergency services, as part of the reshuffle that followed Ted Baillieu’s resignation.