Victorian election 2014

Dandenong

Margin: Labor 14.0%
Region: South Eastern Metropolitan
Federal: Bruce (63%)/Holt (28%)/Isaacs (9%)

Outgoing member: John Pandazopoulos (Labor)

Candidates in ballot paper order

dandenong-alp

dandenong-lib

NOELLE WALKER
Family First

CARLTON JOHN KING
Rise Up Australia

JOHN GULZARI
Greens

JOANNA PALATSIDES
Liberal (bottom)

GABRIELLE WILLIAMS
Labor (top)

DALE ANTHONY KEY
Independent

2010 BOOTH RESULTS MAP

PAST RESULTS

DEMOGRAPHICS

RESULTS MAP: Two-party preferred booth results from 2010 state election showing Liberal majority in blue and Labor in red. New boundaries in thicker blue lines, old ones in thinner red lines. Boundary data courtesy of Ben Raue of The Tally Room.

PAST RESULTS: Break at 1999 represents effect of the subsequent redistribution.

DEMOGRAPHICS: Based on 2012 census. School Leavers is percentage of high school graduates divided by persons over 18. LOTE is number identified as speaking language other than English at home, divided by total population.

Held since 1992 by retiring Labor member John Pandazopoulos, the south-eastern suburban electorate of Dandenong has existed since 1904, and been a stronghold for Labor since urban expansion encroached on the township in the late 1960s. As presently constituted, the electorate encompasses Dandenong and Dandenong North, Doveton, Eumemmering and the western part of Endeavour Hills to the east, and parts of Noble Park and Noble Park north to the west.
As well as having the state’s fourth lowest median income, the electorate ranks second after Broadmeadows for number of Muslims, and also has a large Indian community.

The redistribution has further increased the electorate’s area with an expansion south of Kirkham Road, but this mostly consists of the industrial zone of Dandenong South, together with an area within the suburb of Dandenong accounting for 1300 voters. Small adjustments have also been made in the northern half of the electorate: 2000 voters in Noble Park and Keysborough are transferred to Keysborough, nearly 3000 in Dandenong North and Noble Park North are added from Mulgrave, and a tidying of the eastern boundary with Narre Warren North has added 3000 voters in Endeavour Hills. The changes have had a negligible impact on the Labor margin, which increases from 13.9% to 14.0%.

Labor’s worst results in Dandenong’s recent history came with the Jeff Kennett landslides of 1992 and 1996, which respectively reduced the margin to 3.0% and 3.4%. This emboldened Kennett to devote considerable effort to winning over Dandenong and the since-abolished seat of Dandenong North at the 1999 election, but the mismatch between his hopes for that election and the reality was underscored when Dandenong swung to Labor by 2.4%. A redistribution favourable to Labor followed by a 9.1% swing in the 2002 landslide put the margin deep into the safe seat zone, to be followed by swings to the Liberals of 1.6% in 2006 and 4.8% in 2010.

John Pandazopoulos, who served in cabinet during the first two terms of the Bracks government, is to be succeeded as Labor’s candidate by Gabrielle Williams, who won preselection ahead of Xiaoli Ma, president of the party’s Dandenong branch. Williams is a project manager at the University of Melbourne and a former electorate officer to Alan Griffin, the federal member for Bruce, who like Pandazopoulos is a member of the Socialist Left.