Victorian election 2014

Gembrook

Margin: Liberal 8.8%
Region: Eastern Victoria
Federal: La Trobe (77%)/McMillan (23%)

Candidates in ballot paper order

gembrook-lib

gembrook-alp

DAMIAN HEFFERNAN
Independent

COLLIN ROSS
Labor (bottom)

SIMON BEARD
Australian Christians

FRANK DEAN
Independent

MICHAEL SCHILLING
Greens

ALAN STOOPS
Country Alliance

FERDIE VERDAN
Rise Up Australia

BRAD BATTIN
Liberal (top)

2010 BOOTH RESULTS MAP

PAST RESULTS
(PAKENHAM/GEMBROOK)

DEMOGRAPHICS

RESULTS MAP: Two-party preferred booth results from 2010 state election showing Liberal majority in blue and Labor in red. New boundaries in thicker blue lines, old ones in thinner red lines. Boundary data courtesy of Ben Raue of The Tally Room.

PAST RESULTS: Break at 1999 represents effect of the subsequent redistribution.

DEMOGRAPHICS: Based on 2012 census. School Leavers is percentage of high school graduates divided by persons over 18. LOTE is number identified as speaking language other than English at home, divided by total population.

A Liberal gain at the 2010 election, Gembrook is a mixed outer suburban and semi-rural electorate at Melbourne’s south-eastern fringe, the balance of which has shifted from the latter to the former with the redistribution. Its incursion on Melbourne’s suburbs at Berwick and Beaconsfield has expanded with a gain of 5000 voters from Narre Warren North and 1800 from Narre Warren South, and the manner of Pakenham’s division between Gembrook and its southern neighbour Bass has been revised, with the former gaining 7000 voters at the northern end and the latter gaining 3500 voters in the west. Counter-balancing the net gain is the loss of the Upper Yarra Ranges around Warburton, which is ceded to the new electorate of Eildon. This accounts for over half of the old electorate’s territory, but only 11,000 voters. It also loses 5500 voters around Belgrave at its western end to Monbulk. The combined effect of the changes is to boost the Liberal margin of 6.8% to a seemingly secure 8.8%.

Gembrook was created at the 2002 election as part of a reconfiguration that abolished the seats of Pakenham and Berwick, which had been held by the Liberals since their respective creations in 1992 and 1976. The Liberals intended that the new seat would be contested by Robert Dean, the Shadow Treasurer and member for Berwick. However, this came spectacularly unstuck 16 days out from polling day when Dean was removed from the electoral roll on the grounds that he no longer lived at his registered address, making him ineligible to stand. The notional Liberal margin of 6.7% was subsequently erased by a swing of 8.9%, putting Labor’s Tammy Lobato into parliament at the expense of the Liberals’ last-minute substitute candidate Neil Lucas, who had previously been a member for the upper house province of Eumemmering. Lobato did well to defend her modest 1.6% margin at the 2006 election, when the swing against her was 0.9%, before being swept away in the tide of 2010 by a swing of 7.5%.

The seat has since been held for the Liberals by Brad Battin, formerly a senior constable and owner of a Bakers Delight outlet. He was promoted to parliamentary secretary for the environment in April 2013, as part of the rearrangement that followed Ted Baillieu’s resignation. His Labor opponent is Collin Ross, a Cardinia Shire councillor.