Victorian election 2014

Gippsland East

Margin: Nationals 23.1%
Region: Eastern Victoria
Federal: Gippsland

Candidates in ballot paper order

gippslandeast-nat

gippslandeast-alp

DAVID HUTCHISON
Country Alliance

SCOTT CAMPBELL-SMITH
Greens

JENNY JACK
Rise Up Australia

KATE MAXFIELD
Labor (bottom)

PETER GARDNER
Independent

TIM BULL
Nationals (top)

LEIGH McDONALD
Independent

PETER WARREN McKENZIE
Independent

2010 BOOTH RESULTS MAP

PAST RESULTS

DEMOGRAPHICS

RESULTS MAP: Two-party preferred booth results from 2010 state election showing Nationals majority in green and Labor in red. New boundaries in thicker blue lines, old ones in thinner red lines. Boundary data courtesy of Ben Raue of The Tally Room.

PAST RESULTS: Break at 1999 represents effect of the subsequent redistribution.

DEMOGRAPHICS: Based on 2012 census. School Leavers is percentage of high school graduates divided by persons over 18. LOTE is number identified as speaking language other than English at home, divided by total population.

Gippsland East has had an uninterrupted existence going back to 1889, currently covering the easternmost tip of Victoria, from Maffra to Mallacoota and north to Omeo and beyond. Its consistency has been affirmed by the latest redistribution, which has left it unchanged. The electorate ranks second highest highest in the state for median age, and fifth lowest for median income. The seat was held by a range of conservatives from 1889 to 1920 and henceforth by the Country Party in its various incarnations, outside of independent Craig Ingram’s tenure from 1999 to 2010. Ingram was re-elected in 2002 and 2006 but defeated at the 2010 election, a result that left the Legislative Assembly entirely monopolised by the major parties.

Ingram’s surprise win over incumbent David Treasure in 1999 was achieved on the back of a campaign to restore flows to the Snowy River, securing him a 24.8% base of the vote from which he overtook first Labor and then the Nationals on preferences. His victory left him as one of three independents holding the balance of power, and he lined up with colleagues Susan Davies and Russell Savage in supporting a Labor minority government, having concluded it was better placed to return flows to the Snowy. Ingram proved the longest lasting of the three, Davies having failed to transfer from her abolished seat of Gippsland West to the new seat of Bass in 2002, and Savage having been unseated by the Nationals in Mildura in 2006. Ingram increased his 7.7% margin from 1999 to 13.1% in 2002, before it fell back to 8.5% in 2006.

The 2010 election result was radically different from the three that preceded it, with support for the Nationals – who had finished third behind the Liberals in 2006 – rocketing from their vote from 18.8% to 45.1%, with Ingram slumping from 38.4% to 25.3% and the Liberals also down from 21.8% to 14.3%. After the distribution of preferences, the Nationals prevailed by 62.1%, a 20.5% turn-around on the 2006 result. An important local issue working against Ingram was the ban on cattle grazing in Alpine National Park, which prompted the Mountain Cattlemen’s Association to campaign for the Nationals.

The seat has since been held by Tim Bull, a former local newspaper editor who had more recently worked for the Australian Sports Commission. Bull won promotion to Local Government and Aboriginal Affairs Minister in March 2014, filling the Nationals cabinet vacancy created by the departure of Jeanette Powell, who stood aside pending her retirement at the election.