Victorian election 2014

Ivanhoe

Margin: Labor 1.8%
Region: Eastern Metropolitan
Federal: Jagajaga

Candidates in ballot paper order

ivanhoe-alp

ivanhoe-lib

GURMENDER GREWAL
Australian Christians

PAUL KENNEDY
Greens

JESSE BOER
Family First

CARL ZIEBELL
Liberal (bottom)

CRAIG LANGDON
Independent

ABDIRIZAK H. MOHAMED
Independent

ANTHONY CARBINES
Labor (top)

2010 BOOTH RESULTS MAP

PAST RESULTS

DEMOGRAPHICS

RESULTS MAP: Two-party preferred booth results from 2010 state election showing Liberal majority in blue and Labor in red. New boundaries in thicker blue lines, old ones in thinner red lines. Boundary data courtesy of Ben Raue of The Tally Room.

PAST RESULTS: Break at 1999 represents effect of the subsequent redistribution.

DEMOGRAPHICS: Based on 2012 census. School Leavers is percentage of high school graduates divided by persons over 18. LOTE is number identified as speaking language other than English at home, divided by total population.

Ivanhoe covers suburbs west of Plenty River about 15 kilometres north-east of the city, from Ivanhoe itself out to Heidelberg, Rosanna and View Bank. It was created in 1945 and changed hands along with the changes of government in 1955 and 1982, thereafter behaving somewhat unusually in falling to the Liberals in 1985 and to Labor in 1996, partly because Labor was strengthened by the redistribution at the 1992 election. The latest redistribution has added 5000 voters at Macleod and Yallambie in the electorate’s north-east, previously in Bundoora, with a negligible impact on the margin.

Labor’s member for the seat since the 2010 election has been Anthony Carbines, a former Banyule councillor and chief-of-staff to Education Minister Bronwyn Pike, and is the step-son of upper house MP Elaine Carbines. Carbines had won preselection by a one-vote margin over his Labor Unity factional colleague Craig Langdon, who won the seat from the Liberals in 1996. Langdon complained at the time that Carbines had disregarded his offer to make the seat available to him after another term. In what appeared to be a botched attempt to embarrass the government with a by-election, Langdon vacated the seat in August 2010, but the by-election did not transpire owing to the proximity of the November general election.

Carbines survived a heavy swing of 8.8% at the election to retain the seat by a margin of 1.7%, and was promoted in February 2012 to parliamentary secretary for local government in February 2012. which did not in fact need to be held due to the proximity of the election. The Liberals have again endorsed their candidate from 2010, Carl Ziebell, director of Adrenalin Health Club and Personal Training.

cuCraig Langdon has delivered the Liberals a major boost by making a late entry as an independent candidate in the seat he formerly held for Labor, and directing preferences against the man who unseated him for preselection in 2010. On the morning of polling day, the Herald-Sun related that the Liberals considered themselves a “strong chance”.