Victorian election 2014

Mulgrave

Margin: Labor 2.4%
Region: South Eastern Metropolitan
Federal: Bruce

Candidates in ballot paper order

mulgrave-alp

mulgrave-lib

JOSH FERGEUS
Greens

ROBERT DAVIES
Liberal (bottom)

NORMAN FENN
Family First

MAREE WOOD
Rise Up Australia

DANIEL ANDREWS
Labor (top)

2010 BOOTH RESULTS MAP

PAST RESULTS
(DANDENONG NORTH/MULGRAVE)

DEMOGRAPHICS

RESULTS MAP: Two-party preferred booth results from 2010 state election showing Liberal majority in blue and Labor in red. New boundaries in thicker blue lines, old ones in thinner red lines. Boundary data courtesy of Ben Raue of The Tally Room.

PAST RESULTS: Break at 1999 represents effect of the subsequent redistribution.

DEMOGRAPHICS: Based on 2012 census. School Leavers is percentage of high school graduates divided by persons over 18. LOTE is number identified as speaking language other than English at home, divided by total population.

Daniel Andrews’ seat of Mulgrave is located in 25 kilometres from the city centre in Melbourne’s south-east, to the north-west of the outer urban centre of Dandenong. It encompasses Mulgrave in the centre, Wheelers Hill in the north, and parts of Springvale, Noble Park and Dandenong North in the south. Andrews has emerged as one of the single biggest losers of the redistribution, which has been pulled his electorate northwards to fill the vacuum created by the abolition of the safe Liberal seat of Scoresby. This adds 9000 voters in Wheelers Hill, an area of higher incomes and lower ethnic diversity than the electorate’s southern end, while costing it 3000 voters in Dandenong North and Noble Park North, who are transferred to Dandenong. The combined effect is to cut his comfortable margin of 8.5% from the 2010 election to 2.4%.

Mulgrave was created at the 2002 election in place of abolished Dandenong North, which had been held by Labor from its creation in 1985 despite close calls in 1992 (36 votes) and 1996 (2.2%). These results encouraged Jeff Kennett to imagine that the seat could fall to the Liberals in 1999, inspiring a promise that Dandenong would be made a “premier city” if voters in the relevant electorates chose wisely. Labor incumbent John Lenders was instead returned with a swing of 5.8%. The electoral rearrangement at the 2002 election saw Lenders assume Waverley province in the upper house, while Mulgrave was won by newcomer Daniel Andrews.

A member of the Socialist Left faction, Andrews was party state secretary from 2000 to 2002 and previously worked as an electorate officer to federal Bruce MP Alan Griffin. On contesting Mulgrave for the first time he picked up a swing of 12.2%, an emphatic result even by the standards of the 2002 landslide. He was immediately elevated to parliamentary secretary for health, and gained a cabinet berth after the 2006 election as Gaming and Consumer Affairs Minister. When Steve Bracks and John Thwaites departed simultaneously in July 2007, he won further promotion to Health Minister.

Following the 2010 election defeat, Andrews was immediately identified as one of John Brumby’s possible successors along with Jacinta Allan and Tim Holding. However, Holding did not put himself forward as a candidate, reportedly failing to secure support partly due to the weak position of his National Union of Workers sub-faction of the Right. With the Socialist Left choosing to throw its weight behind Andrews rather than his factional colleague Allan, Andrews secured the leadership unopposed.