Victorian election 2014

Narre Warren South

Margin: Labor 7.4%
Region: South Eastern Metropolitan
Federal: Holt (54%)/La Trobe (46%)

Candidates in ballot paper order

narrewarrensouth-alp

narrewarrensouth-lib

SUSAN SEREY
Liberal (bottom)

NARMIEN ANDRAWIS
Australian Christians

JUDITH GRALEY
Labor (top)

ANTHONY SOFE
Rise Up Australia

LYNETTE KELEHER
Greens

2010 BOOTH RESULTS MAP

PAST RESULTS

DEMOGRAPHICS

RESULTS MAP: Two-party preferred booth results from 2010 state election showing Liberal majority in blue and Labor in red. New boundaries in thicker blue lines, old ones in thinner red lines. Boundary data courtesy of Ben Raue of The Tally Room.

PAST RESULTS: Break at 1999 represents effect of the subsequent redistribution.

DEMOGRAPHICS: Based on 2012 census. School Leavers is percentage of high school graduates divided by persons over 18. LOTE is number identified as speaking language other than English at home, divided by total population.

Located deep in Melbourne’s outer south-eastern suburbs, Narre Warren South was created at the 2002 election to accommodate accumulating suburban sprawl and the abolition of the seat of Berwick. Reflecting its dominance by young families, the electorate ranks number one in the state for number of households paying mortgages, and has the third youngest median age. The suburb of Narre Warren South is located at the electorate’s centre, along with Hampton Park to its west and Berwick south of the Monash Freeway to its east. The redistribution has added territory in the west and east while removing it in the north and south, causing the Labor margin to increase by 0.7%. The most substantial transfer is the loss of 10,000 voters in the southern part of Narre Warren to Narren Warren North, along with 1800 voters in Berwick and Beaconsfield to Gembrook further to the east. In the south, 8500 voters in Cranbourne North have gone to Cranbourne. Compensating gains are 6000 voters in Hampton Park from abolished Lyndhurst, and 3700 in a part of Berwick that was formerly in Bass.

Narre Warren South had a notional Liberal margin of 1.5% when created for the 2002 election, but this was blasted away by the 13.8% swing that delivered the seat to Labor’s Dale Wilson, an electorate officer to Dandenong MP John Pandazopolous and member of the Socialist Left faction. Despite his strong electoral performance, Wilson was defeated for preselection in March 2006 by Judith Graley, with the 50% of the vote determined by the central party’s Public Office Selection Committee overcoming the 53.5% vote for Wilson in the local preselection ballot. Graley was previously a Mornington shire councillor and electorate officer to Bracks-Brumby government minister Police Minister Tim Holding, sharing the latter’s alignment with the Right faction National Union of Workers. Her Liberal opponent at the election is Susan Serey, a Casey councillor.