Victorian election 2014

Ringwood

Margin: Liberal 6.3%
Region: Eastern Metropolitan
Federal: Deakin (97%)/Menzies (3%)

Candidates in ballot paper order

ringwood-lib

ringwood-alp

MICHAEL CHALLINGER
Independent

DEE RYALL
Liberal (top)

KAREN DOBBY
Australian Christians

BRENDAN POWELL
Greens

STEVE RASKOVY
People Power

BRIAN DUNGEY
Country Alliance

TONY CLARK
Labor (bottom)

2010 BOOTH RESULTS MAP

PAST RESULTS (MITCHAM)

DEMOGRAPHICS

RESULTS MAP: Two-party preferred booth results from 2010 state election showing Liberal majority in blue and Labor in red. New boundaries in thicker blue lines, old ones in thinner red lines. Boundary data courtesy of Ben Raue of The Tally Room.

PAST RESULTS: Break at 1999 represents effect of the subsequent redistribution.

DEMOGRAPHICS: Based on 2012 census. School Leavers is percentage of high school graduates divided by persons over 18. LOTE is number identified as speaking language other than English at home, divided by total population.

Ringwood is a new seat in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs created in place of abolished Mitcham, which provides it with 18,000 of its 33,000 voters. The Mitcham transfer constitutes to the western part of the new electorate, encompassing Mitcham and the bulk of Nunawading, which is supplemented by 11,000 voters in and around northern Ringwood in the electorate’s north-east, formerly in Warrandyte; a further 4000 Ringwood voters south of the railway from Bayswater; and 5200 voters in the eastern part of Ringwood East, formerly in abolished Kilsyth. There is also a minor gain to the north of Mitcham from abolished Doncaster, encompassing 1200 voters in Donvale. Whereas Mitcham was highly marginal, the Liberal lean of the eastern half of the new electorate gives it a reasonably solid margin of 6.3%.

Mitcham was a bellwether seat through most of a history going back to 1967, having changed hands from Liberal to Labor when John Cain came to power in 1982 and back again with Jeff Kennett’s landslide in 1992. It provided an early harbinger of Kennett’s defeat when it recorded a 16% swing at a by-election in 1999, at which it was won for Labor by Tony Robinson. Robinson survived a correction at the general election later that year to retain the seat with a margin of 0.5%, and picked up a 7.6% swing in the 2002 landslide. However, a 5.7% swing in 2006 reduced the margin to 2.0%, followed by a 4.7% swing that shifted the seat into the Liberal column in 2010.

The seat has since been held for the Liberals by Dee Ryall, a former nurse and hospital administrator who had more recently been managing director of a business consultancy. Labor’s candidate is Tony Clark, who works for the Department of Human Services. Clark suffers from blindness, and previously worked as national business development manager for Vision Australia.