Victorian election 2014

South Barwon

Margin: Liberal 4.9%
Region: Western Victoria
Federal: Corangamite

Candidates in ballot paper order

southbarwon-lib

southbarwon-alp

LISA ASHDOWNE
Greens

JAMIE OVEREND
Animal Justice

STEVEN THOMPSON
Family First

NICK WALLIS
Sex Party

STEPHEN CHARA
Country Alliance

ANDREW KATOS
Liberal (top)

KEVIN BUTLER
Democratic Labour Party

ANDY RICHARDS
Labor (bottom)

2010 BOOTH RESULTS MAP

PAST RESULTS

DEMOGRAPHICS

RESULTS MAP: Two-party preferred booth results from 2010 state election showing Liberal majority in blue and Labor in red. New boundaries in thicker blue lines, old ones in thinner red lines. Boundary data courtesy of Ben Raue of The Tally Room.

PAST RESULTS: Break at 1999 represents effect of the subsequent redistribution.

DEMOGRAPHICS: Based on 2012 census. School Leavers is percentage of high school graduates divided by persons over 18. LOTE is number identified as speaking language other than English at home, divided by total population.

Covering the outer suburbs of southern Geelong and further territory out to the Great Ocean Road coast, South Barwon was a Liberal gain at the 2010 election, having previously been held by Labor for two terms. The electorate encompasses the large Geelong suburbs of Highton and Grovedale, and the coastal town of Torquay. The redistribution has given the Liberals a handy 1.0% boost by amending its boundary with Geelong, adding 4000 voters from an area of Liberal strength in Highton, while removing the 10,000 voters of marginal Belmont. It also loses Barwon Heads and its 3000 voters at its eastern coastal end to Bellarine.

South Barwon was created at the 1976 election and held by the Liberals until the 2002 landslide, when it was gained for Labor by Michael Crutchfield, a former Geelong mayor and Country Fire Authority firefighter. The swing to Crutchfield was 10.1%, which added to the 5.5% swing he had achieved on his first attempt in 1999. This provided enough of a buffer for him to withstand a 2.7% correction in 2006. Labor’s breakthrough at state level was matched in the corresponding federal seat of Corangamite, which Labor won for the first time in 2007 and retained in 2010. However, both seats have since returned to the Liberal fold, a 6.2% in 2010 delivering South Barwon to Andrew Katos, formerly a Geelong councillor.

Labor’s new candidate for the seat is Andy Richards, a former official with the Left faction Australian Manufacturing Workers Union who represents Buckley ward on Geelong City Council, which encompasses Grovedale.

cuA week into the campaign, the Herald-Sun reported that “in Geelong both sides think the most likely outcome is no change”, suggesting Labor would hold Bellarine but fall short in South Barwon.