Victorian election 2014

Warrandyte

Margin: Liberal 17.2%
Region: Eastern Metropolitan
Federal: Menzies (95%)/Jagajaga (5%)

Candidates in ballot paper order

warrandyte-lib

warrandyte-alp

STEVEN KENT
Labor (bottom)

KEITH LYON
Country Alliance

RYAN SMITH
Liberal (top)

RICHARD CRANSTON
Greens

DAVID LEACH
Australian Christians

2010 BOOTH RESULTS MAP

PAST RESULTS

DEMOGRAPHICS

RESULTS MAP: Two-party preferred booth results from 2010 state election showing Liberal majority in blue and Labor in red. New boundaries in thicker blue lines, old ones in thinner red lines. Boundary data courtesy of Ben Raue of The Tally Room.

PAST RESULTS: Break at 1999 represents effect of the subsequent redistribution.

DEMOGRAPHICS: Based on 2012 census. School Leavers is percentage of high school graduates divided by persons over 18. LOTE is number identified as speaking language other than English at home, divided by total population.

The safe Liberal seat of Warrandyte is located in Melbourne’s outer eastern suburbs, the bulk of its population being concentrated in Doncaster East and Donvale at the electorate’s western end, from which it extends through the urban fringe suburbs of Warrandyte and Park Orchards to Wonga Park. The electorate has been heavily affected by the redistribution, providing two new neighbouring electorates in the south with large numbers of their voters. The new electorate of Croydon gains 18,500 of the old Warrandyte’s voters in Croydon North, the western part of Croydon, and the northern parts of Ringwood and Ringwood North. To the south-west of this area, Ringwood gains 11,000 voters in and around the northern part of the suburb that gives the electorate its name. Compensating for these losses are the western part of Doncaster East, adding 2700 voters from Bulleen, and semi-rural territory in the north of the electorate, encompassing 2400 voters in Wonga Park from Evelyn and 2200 from North Warrandate from Yan Yean. The changes have added 3.3% to the Liberal margin.

Warrandyte was won by the Liberals on its creation in 1976 but fell to Labor in 1982, remaining with them at the 1985 election before returning to the Liberal fold in 1988, where it has remained ever since. The watershed in the electorate’s progress from marginal to safe Liberal seat came with the 1992 landslide, in which the swing was 13.9%. The member from 1992 to 2006 was Phil Honeywood, who served as the deputy Liberal leader from after the 2002 election until March 2006. It was widely noted at the time that Honeywood became the youngest Liberal in the Assembly when he entered it in 1988, and remained so when he left it 18 years later.

The preselection to replace Honeywood was won by Ryan Smith, a Commonwealth Bank finance manager who had the backing of Honeywood. Smith defeated Melbourne City councillor Peter Clarke, in a result that was seen as a win for the Peter Costello-Michael Kroger faction in the part over that of Jeff Kennett and Ted Baillieu. Smith won promotion to shadow parliamentary secretary in February 2008 and then to the shadow ministry in the industrial relations and manufacturing portfolios in November 2009, and has served as Minister for the Environment and Climate Change and Minister for Youth Affairs since the 2010 election victory.