Today’s Essential Report brings us vote estimates of the ALP leading on primaries 50/35 (ALP up 1) washing through to a TPP of 59/41 – remaining the same as last week’s survey. This result comes from a rolling two week sample of 1791, giving us an MoE of around 2.3%. Rudd also leads Turnbull 56/20 on Better Prime Minister with the remainder being of No Opinion.

There were two additional sets of questions from Essential this week (with a sample size of 1003 for an MoE of 3.1%), a serious look at public perceptions of financial and job security, and a bit of fun with Obama and Australian Prime Ministers.

First up, the serious set.

Thinking about the next 12 months – In 12 months time, do you think you will be financially better off than you are now, financially worse off or about the same?

On the crosstabs, Essential continued:

Those more likely to think they will be financially worse off are more likely to be people aged 50 years and over (39%) and not working (34%), while people more likely to think they will be financially better off are more likely to be aged 18 – 24 (26%) and in full time work (23%).

In 12 months time, do you think – when it comes to job security –you will be much more secure; somewhat more secure; somewhat less secure; much less secure or about the same?

On the crosstabs, Essential continued:

Respondents aged 35 – 49 years are more likely to think they will be somewhat less secure/much less secure when it comes to job security in the next 12 months time (29%), while respondents aged 18 – 24 are more likely to think that their job situation will be much more secure/somewhat more secure in the next 12 months time (14%).

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58% of respondents in full time work think that their job security in the next 12 months time will be about the same, while those in part time work are more likely to think that their job security will be somewhat less secure/much less secure (31%).

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55% of respondents earning $1000 – $1600 per week and 54% earning $1600 + per week are more likely to think that their job security will be about the same in the next 12 months.

And in 12 months time, do you think your level of debt including loans and credit cards will have increased a lot, a little, decreased a lot, a little or stayed about the same?

On the crosstabs, Essential continued:

20% of people think that their level of debt, including loans and credit cards will have increased a lot/increased a little and 33% think their level of debt will decrease.

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27% of people earning less than $600 per week think that their level of debt will increase a lot/a little over the next 12 months.

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41% of respondents in the 35 – 49 age group think that their level of debt will decrease by a little/by a lot in the next 12 months.

The Australian public is still showing levels of optimism that are so far defying the commentary surrounding the economic doom and gloom. Poll after poll, survey after survey, the results continue to show Australian perceptions holding up with a surprising level of resilience.

On the fun stuff (although not as fun as watching Dae Levine try to crack the worst joke in the history of SkyNooz about the Obama results being change we believe in…. Dae, please – pollsters look and sound geeky enough!),  questions about post WW2 PM’s and Obama made a showing:

Choosing from the following list, who do you think has been Australia’s best Prime Minister?

On the crosstabs Essential said:

63% of Coalition voters rate John Howard as Australia’s best Prime Minister, Labor voters were more likely to rate Kevin Rudd as the best Australian Prime Minister (32%) followed by Bob Hawke at 16%. 25% of Green voters rated Gough Whitlam as the best Australian Prime Minister.

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Respondents in the 25 – 34 year age group were more likely to rate Kevin Rudd as the best Australian Prime Minister (34%). People aged 50 years and over were more likely to prefer Robert Menzies (19%), while respondents aged 18 – 24 were more likely to rate Gough Whitlam as the best Australian Prime Minister (17%).

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56% of respondents nominated a Labor Prime Minister compared to 44% who nominated a Liberal.

Do you think that the new US President Barack Obama will bring about major change to the Government of the US, some change, a little change or no change at all?

UPDATE:

The complete breakdown by age cohort on the Best post-war PM question.

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