A new Year, a new bouncy Newspoll from The Oz coming in with primaries running to the ALP 43/39 (ALP down 5, Coalition up 4) to wash out as a two party preferred running the same way of 54/46 (ALP down 5). This comes to us from a sample of 1152, giving us an approximate maximum MoE of around 2.9%.

If we check out the history of Newspoll since 2008, we can see how the last few months has been a bit unusual:

The last poll of last year showed a jump to the ALP – a jump which the other pollsters also picked up – yet this time Newspoll has shown a dramatic drop for the New Year, a result which, so far at least, hasnt been replicated by any other pollster. It looks like there’s a bit of sampling error driven volatility for Newspoll over the last two polls – they could have overshot the move to the ALP before Christmas and/or overshot any move back to the Coalition this poll. Time will tell.

Another interesting thing about this polling, and something we probably don’t pay enough attention to here (but might start to soon) is the number of “Uncommitteds” and “Refused” responses. There were 5% uncommitted and 2% refused, making 7% of the sample missing in action as far as results go. 7% is a pretty big number, big enough that any 60/40 or 70/30 split among this group (should an election be held) would make any actual election result significantly different from the polling results – but it’s also not a very unusual number for Australian public opinion polling.

Moving on to the satisfaction ratings, the Newspoll responses tracked the the vote estimates in terms of their change from last poll:

Looking at Truffle’s Net sAtisfaction ratings, since he gained the leadership the gap between his raw net satisfaction and his net satisfaction with undecideds removed has closed while simultanously having his raw net satisfaction ratings drop. This means that as people have made up their mind about Turnbull, more of them have been dissatisfied with his perfomance than were satisfied, on balance. It’s not a dramatic movement, but it’s there and it’s something he probably needs to keep an eye on – it’s certainly not as bad as Nelson’s ratings where the undecideds were actually holding up his raw net satisfaction ratings.

Meanwhile, the beauty contest for Preferred Prime Minister went like this:

All the polling charts have been updated, as well as The Polls page which has the varying measures of poll averages. We need a new Nielsen poll before we can update our weekly Pollytrack properly, so hopefully that will be coming soon if Fairfax pulls their finger out. A new Galaxy would be nice as well – hint hint Murdoch tabloids – surely your Sunday papers could use a poll on financial and job security !

Elsewhere: Poll Bludger, Larvatus Prodeo

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