The LNP needs 21 seats (all things being equal) to form government. The swings for seats look like this (using Antony’s redistribution estimates) for the practical middle 50 seats thereabouts.

(apologies for anyone that saw the first chart and had a bad case of WTF! – my labels had become a bit denecessaried)

So folks, any ideas on what you’d like to see in terms of census data matches to Qld seats, or anything else for that matter? We’ll follow the polling and bits and pieces as the election campaign rolls on, keeping a close eye on the grenades that will be thrown to wedge the LNP Regional QLD/Brisbane City electoral divide – which is what is making it close to impossible for Springborg to win (barring any major event).

Worth noting is that Qld has Optional Preferential Voting, so preferences often exhaust making the two party preferred estimates in polling potentially misleading.

Antony Green’s QLD Election site is here, complete with spiffy pendulum toys.

Elsewhere we have: Larvatus Prodeo, Tally Room, The Pollbludger,

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