Today, Newspoll via The Oz (and a spiffy new flash app) released their quarterly aggregation of polling that provides us with state and demographic breakdowns for the first 3 months worth of Newspoll data in 2009. Since we’ve got 32 charts (!!) to get through, it might be wise to break this up into a few posts. So today we’ll have a look at voting intention, tomorrow we’ll do the satisfaction dynamics and Sunday we’ll go nerdy and run some election simulations.

So first up, we’ll take a squiz at the ALP primary vote:

alpprimstate alpprimdemo

alppvsstate alppvsdemo

As we can see, Western Australia is still the odd man out for Labor with an ALP primary that’s been tracking an average of 7 points lower than the national average over the same period since the 2007 election – even though Labor are currently shown to be just over 2 points higher in WA than their 07 election result. Also worth noting is how the female primary vote has swung 4 points to Labor since the election, while the male vote and the 18-34’s have actually swung 3 points away from Labor since the election. But all of that swing away plus more has moved across, on net, to the minors rather than the Coalition as we can see by taking a squiz at the Coalition charts:

lnpprimstate lnpprimdemo

lnppvsstate lnppvsdemo

The big movement here is among females and the 35-49’s (justifying our incessant banging on about how the ALP is deliberately targeting the Family Tax Benefit set) where the Coalition has had a 9 point swing away from them since the election with the 35-49’s and a whopping 10 point swing away from them on the female vote! Even though the female vote is historically far more volatile than the male vote (please discuss 😀  ), this demographic collapse must be, by far and away, the biggest Coalition concern.

The over 50’s are the only real demographic strength left for the Coalition at the moment, even though they’ve swung toward Labor since the last election like everyone else. If it wasn’t for the over 50’s vote, the Coalition would be staring at wipeout levels of voter support – knock 2 points off their TPP every fortnight – which really goes to show the complete absence of political nouse in Tony Abbot with his February claims questioning the proposed rise in the age pension.

The other chief concern for the Coalition would have to be their performance in South Australia, which is looking pretty abysmal at the moment – even though Labor isn’t benefiting from those lost Coalition voters in primary vote terms, it’s actually the minors that seem to be gouging on the SA Coalition vote which we can see by having a squiz at the Others charts:

othprimstate othprimdemo

othpvsstate othpvsdemo

The other demographic movement with the minor’s vote would seem to be the Greens picking up larger numbers of the 18-34’s, although the minor vote is up in every state and demographic since the election.

Looking now at the two party preferred, where the results focus on geography rather than demographics, it’s the same old sad story for the Coalition:

alptpp lnptpp

alptppswing lnptppswing

That movement in SA from the Coalition to the minors in net terms on the primary vote really starts to burn on the TPP once preferences get distributed, with Labor picking up a 5.5 point TPP swing in SA off the back of only a 1 point primary vote gain.

On the MoE’s here, were looking at a total sample size of well over 5500, so for the gender breakdown we get an MoE around the 1.9% mark, while for the states it varies between about 4% for the small states like SA and WA down to a touch under 2.5% for NSW and Victoria.

For something completely off topic but hilarious, Crikey News on Twitter today had this to say about Conroy’s Q&A performance last night:

Someone should make Russian Mafia tshirts. “im at ur dentist, ruining yr internetz”….

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