Following on from Part 1 where we looked at the vote estimates, today we’ll have a squiz at the satisfaction rating dynamics of the quarterly Newspoll breakdown.
First up, the ALP:
There’s just not really a lot going on there, with all states and territories roughly moving together, and where the 50+ cohort is the least impressed by Rudd while the 18-34’s are the most impressed. Worth noting is that Rudd’s worst performance by cohort (the 50+) is better than Turnbull’s best performance by cohort (the 18-34’s). Also worth mentioning is that the highest Net Satisfaction rating for both leaders comes from the same age cohort – the 18-34’s, which is a bit unusual.
Moving on to the Coalition we get:
It’s a bit peculiar how Turnbull is getting his best Net Satisfaction rating from the 18-34 crowd, while the voting intention of that group is the Coalitions worst performing demographic, having never hit more than 32% on the primary vote since the election. 25% of that cohort at the moment are undecided on whether they’re satisfied or dissatisfied with Turnbull compared to the ALPs 12% undecided in the same group, so the weirdness going on with the youngen’s could just be that 1 in 4 of them aren’t really paying much attention.
Turnbull, for all his Aquaman qualities (a little bit blue, a little bit green and a little bit wet) is suffering his worst Net Satisfaction rating in Victoria by geography – which must be annoying him since he’s not making any inroads into the ALP dominance of Victoria and of all the states in the country, Victoria is the strongest on the whole blue/green/wet vibe.
Finally, on the beauty contest of Preferred Prime Minister we have:
This really just restates the obvious, with the ALP doing best in the 18-49’s and worst in the 50+ while the Coalition is the exact opposite.
While Turnbull is starting to repeat the same poor voting intention figures that ultimately removed Nelson from the leadership, his other metrics like Satisfaction ratings and Preferred PM are still marginally better than Nelson delivered when he was Opposition Leader.