Newspoll Tuesday rolls around again, with the primaries coming in at 47 (up 2)/ 36 (down 1) to the ALP, washing into a two party preferred of 58/42 – with Labor up 2 since a fortnight ago. This comes from a sample of 1158 giving an MoE around the 2.9% mark. 4% were uncommitted and 2% were “refused/excluded”.
The big news of the day comes not from Turnbull’s record poor result in the beauty contest of Preferred PM, but from his continuing slide into unelectability via his satisfaction differentials. Approximately 100, 000 people per week are changing from being satisfied to being dissatisfied with Malcolm Turnbull’s performance – normally the trend is your friend in polling, but trends like these are friends Malcolm could well do without. We’ll get to that in a minute.
First up, the usual charts.
Rudd’s satisfaction levels seem to have stabilised over the last 6 months at around 65% in Newspoll – not far removed from his Honeymoon Part 17 levels that he was achieving at the beginning of his term in the first quarter of 2008. All the action as far as the change in public opinion is concerned, has been happening on the Opposition side of the fence.
Turnbull’s satisfaction dynamics have an eerie longer term linear quality to them, you can almost run a straight line through them starting from his November 2008 satisfaction figures and ending on today’s.
Since November, Turnbull is losing around 100,000 people a week in terms of the number of folks that are satisfied with his performance across the Australian electorate. With his dissatisfaction levels it’s even worse, with around 115,000 people a week becoming dissatisfied. The difference between those rates, that 15 thousand people or so, represents the rate at which the Undecideds are breaking against him. Turnbull’s problem isn’t any given Newspoll, it’s his longer term performance that’s grinding him into the dirt – a 1% move against him here, a 2% move against him there with an occasional 5% jump for him in the wrong direction. Just about any two consecutive Newspolls show no statistical movement, but put them all together in a series and the trend is killing him.
While Turnbull may or may not statstically be in negative net satisfaction territory at the moment (eve though that’s what the nominal Newspoll results currently say), it’s difficult to see how he won’t be very shortly. Malcolm Turnbull R.I.P
There were two other questions that Newspoll ran this week – both on foreign investment with a focus on China.
These are very similar to yesterday’s Essential Report numbers which asked very similar questions. It’s far to say that with both pollsters suggesting the same thing, these numbers are a fair representation of current Australian public perception. Interesting is how both pollsters had a fairly wide gap between males and females with the answers – both suggesting that females are a little bit more protectionist in their view of national ownership of industry compared to their male counterparts. Similarly, both polls had Coalition supporters being more protectionist in their views on Australian ownership by around the same margins.