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May 18, 2009

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Well, 16.5 hours if we want to get really pedantic.

This weeks Essential Report comes in with the primaries running 52 (up 2) / 32 (down 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 61/39 62/38 the same way (can’t read – sorry about that)– Labor up 1 from last week. This comes from a two week rolling sample of 1893 giving an MoE around the 2.3% mark.

Newspoll becomes the decider I guess! 😀

If Newspoll comes down flat to higher for the ALP, there’s going to be a hell of a lot of “stick that in your narrative and smoke it” going on tomorrow.

Essential asked a number of additional questions this week, running off a sample of 1002 for an MoE of around 3.1%. Just click to expand the following charts.

Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister?

emcruddapprov

Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Opposition Leader?

emcturnbullapprov

Thinking about the Federal Budget – how much attention did you pay to this week’s Federal Budget?

budgetattentionOn the cross-tabs, Essential says:

Attention paid to the Federal Budget increased with age – 37% of 55 – 64 year olds and 43% of people 65 years and over paid ‘a lot’ of attention to the Federal Budget announcement last week.
Low income earners were more likely to pay a lot of attention to the Federal Budget announced last week (37%), as were unemployed people (35%).

Was the Federal Budget good or bad for you personally, or will it have no impact on you?

budgetpersonalThe cross-tabs give us:

Older respondents were significantly more likely than younger respondents to think that the Federal Budget will be very good/good for them personally (53% 65+ v 27% 18 – 24 year olds).
Labor voters were more likely to think that the Federal Budget will be very good/good for them personally (43%), while Coalition voters were more likely to think that it will be very bad/bad for them personally (50%).
Respondents on low incomes were more likely than those on higher incomes to think that the Federal Budget will be very good/good for them personally (45% earning less than $600 per week v 19% earning more than $1600 per week).

As a result of the Federal Budget are you more likely to vote Labor at the next election, more likely to vote Liberal or National or did it make no difference to your vote?

budgetvoteinf

Essential Reports on the cross tabs (boom tish!)

Responses to this question generally followed party preference. 70% of Coalition voters indicated that the result of the Federal Budget will make them more likely to vote Liberal or National and 44% of Labor voters indicated that the Federal Budget has made them more likely to vote Labor at the next election. 49% of Labor voters and 70% of Green voters say that the Federal Budget has made no difference to their vote.

Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?

econconditionsThe cross-tabs have us:

Labor voters were more likely than Coalition voters to think that over the next 12 months, economic conditions in Australia will get a lot/a little better (35% v 15%). 72% of Coalition voters and 64% of Green voters think that over the next 12 months, economic conditions in Australia will get a lot/a little worse.
Younger respondents were more likely than older respondents to think that over the next 12 months, economic conditions in Australia will get a lot/ a little worse (61% 18 – 24 year olds v 55% 65+ year olds).

Stay tuned for tomorrow’s final, decisive episode of  The Budget Polling Wars – Newspoll Edition.

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17 comments

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17 thoughts on “Essential Report – Turnbull’s boost lasts 16 hours.

  1. Andrew Norton » Blog Archive » No bribes needed to support the budget

    […] of expectations I noted last week in higher education was one across the board, and the Essential Research before-and-after question shows that good reactions exceeded forecast good reactions, and actual negative reactions were lower […]

  2. Dave55

    On Lateline – Newspoll – 56/44 Rudd’s PPM and Satisfaction down though

  3. OzPol Tragic

    “Even the ABC was jumping on the figures as if they are perfect truth.”, although “jumping on” Nielsen only (7.00 pm News) although ER was out before 5.00pm. So much for ABC bias! Shame, Auntie. Shame!

  4. Grog

    [i just want to see all the MSM work through the cognitive dissonance. ]

    If there is a bump to the ALP The Oz will work through the cognitive dissonance on about page 11. 🙂

  5. thewetmale

    I really wish that Newspoll gives some kind of bump to Labor, not because of any political reasons, i just want to see all the MSM work through the cognitive dissonance. Even the ABC was jumping on the figures as if they are perfect truth.

  6. Gary Bruce

    Problem fixed.

  7. Gary Bruce

    5 – Poss I tried that link too and got the same message. I reckon my Acrobat Reader is shot. I’ll download it again.

  8. Gary Bruce

    That message is coming via Acrobat Reader. It worked the first time I tried it. It says “The file is damaged and couldn’t be repaired.” Strange.

  9. Andos

    53 – 47 vs 61 – 39.
    +- 2.6 +- 2.3

    That is a possible discrepancy of 3.1 due to differences between pollsters/samples…

    (I know that’s simplistic and probably not too accurate, but that seems like a pretty big difference to me)

  10. a a

    Links Ok here.

  11. don

    Gary, came through fine for me, I have a mac, don’t know if that is significant.

  12. Possum Comitatus

    That’s weird, it’s working all right this end. Anyone else having the same problem?

    In the meantime, try this Gary:
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2009/05/forgary.pdf

  13. Gary Bruce

    Poss the link headed Essential Report comes up with “file damaged”.

  14. Sgt Pepper's Bleeding Hearts Club Band

    Approximately three quarters of people of pension age receive the Age Pension. It’s therefore interesting that only 53% of people of pension age thought that the budget would benefit them personally.

    Actually, it’s interesting that only 26% of people overall thought that they’d personally benefit from the budget, given that there were tax cuts and pension rises, and that the ‘negatives’ that the media paid the most attention to are likely to affect a minority of (high income) people.

    I wonder if there’s a tendency to dicount benefits already expected in the emotional assessment post-budget. You know, “apart from the tax cuts and the pension rise and the infrastructure spending and the aqueducts, what else has the government done for me?”

  15. Possum Comitatus

    Nielsen is just a one week sample. I couldn’t tell you what Essential Report’s single week figure was, but if there were a serious movement by the population against Labor over the budget, we wouldn’t expect to see a gain to the ALP across the 2 weeks.

    So it’s Newspoll tomorrow – and we’ll run our locally weighted polynomial regression through the poll aggregations (the Pollytrend) to see if there was any noticeable change one way or the other.

  16. cyclosarin

    Neilsen’s isn’t a two week sample, though is it? Any way to find out what ER’s results were for the latter week only?

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