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Essential Report

Nov 16, 2009

The equal worst Essential Report for the ALP comes in with the primaries running 45 (down 3) /39 ( up 4) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 55/45 the same way – a 4 point gain to the Coalition. The Greens are on 9 (steady) while the broad “Others” are on 7 (down 1). This comes from a rolling two week sample of 1915, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.2% mark.

This is the equal poorest result for the ALP that Essential has measured since their polls have been published, equaling the polls of mid November 2008 and late May of this year.

On the demographic cross-tabs of the vote estimates, Essential states that:

The major shift towards the Coalition in terms of primary vote is amongst people aged 65 years and over, and to a lesser extent those in the 55 – 64 year age group. There was no shift towards the Coalition amongst any other age groups.

With a Newspoll out tomorrow, I won’t run the new Pollytrend until those figures come in.

Additional questions this week concerned economic issues of major importance, best party to manage a set of given issues, the NBN, public perception of the power of various institutions,as well as the CPRS.

How concerned are you personally about each of the following economic issues facing Australia today?

econissues1On the cross-tabs we have:

Coalition voters were more likely to be very concerned about food prices and inflation generally (60%), jobs going overseas (57%) and Government debt (54%). Labor voters were more likely to be very concerned about executive wages (54%) and improving wages for low income earners (32%).

Females were more likely than males to be very concerned on most issues, in particular food prices and inflation generally (66% v 45%), improving wages for low income earners (34% v 22%) and unemployment (33% v 25%).

If we tally up the “Total concerned” and sort by order, we get:

econissues2It’s interesting here that the two largest general areas of concern are food prices and petrol/energy costs – which combined,  doesn’t bode well for climate change policy in Australia.

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Between Liberal and Labor, which party do you think would be best at managing each of the following issues?

econissues3

The cross tabs state that “Perception of which party is best at managing the economic issues listed followed party lines”. Labor is behind the Coalition on 9 of the 13 economic issues surveyed.

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The Federal Government plans to build a National Broadband Network over the next few years. How important do you think it is for Australia to build a National Broadband Network?

nbn1

The cross-tabs tell us:

Labor voters were more likely to think it is very/quite important (75%) while Coalition voters were more likely to think it is not so important/not at all important (36%). 60% of Coalition voters think the NBN is very/quite important for Australia.

People living in capital cities were slightly more likely than those living in regional areas to think the NBN is very/quite important for Australia (66% v 63%).

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Who do you think will run the National Broadband Network? And who do you think should run the National Broadband Network?

NDN2

On the cross-tabs we have:

32% of people surveyed don’t know who will run the National Broadband Network (NBN), 27% think the Federal Government will run it and 26% think Telstra will. Labor voters were more likely to think the NBN will be run by the Federal Government (38%), while Coalition voters were more likely to think it will be run by Telstra (34%).

40% think the Federal Government and 16% think Telstra should run the NBN. Labor voters were more likely to think the Federal Government should run the NBN (54%), while Coalition voters were more likely to think it should be run by Telstra (27%).

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Which of the following do you think are the most powerful and politically influential organisations in Australia?

influence1

On the cross-tabs, Essential says:

Labor voters were more likely to think that the most influential and powerful organisations in Australia are the major banks (28%), while Coalition voters were more likely than the average to think trade unions are (16%). Green voters were more likely to think that most power and influence is vested with mining companies (18%).

People aged 55 years and over were more likely to think that media companies are the most powerful organisations in Australia (40%), while people aged 25 – 34 were more likely to think power and influence in Australia is held by mining companies (16%).

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Thinking about climate change, the Government says legislation for an emissions trading scheme needs to be passed before the world summit on climate change being held in Copenhagen in December. The Opposition says Australia should delay making any decisions on an emissions trading scheme until after the world summit. Who do you agree with most?

cprsnov

On the cross-tabs, we see:

People aged 55 years and over were more likely to agree with the view of the Opposition’s view that the introduction of an emissions trading scheme should wait until after the world summit (55%), while people aged 34 years or less were more likely to agree with the Government’s view regarding the introduction of the scheme before the world summit (38%).

Males were more likely than females to agree with the view of the Opposition on this issue (44% v 34%).

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7 comments

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7 thoughts on “Essential Report – Equal lowest ever for the ALP

  1. cud chewer

    As far as the polls go. Two things need to be said.

    First, the ALP getting beyond 55% TPP means having a lot of disaffected Liberal voters in there who were basically protesting their leadership. If anything, the very fact that Turnbull has held on so long despite all of this probably appeals to a lot of those voters. Nevertheless, anything over 55 is probably very fluffy. Meaning, you’re dealing with a whole lot of people who to put it politely, haven’t really sat down and thought about things.

    The second is, you’re seeing the reward that comes with being obstructive. That is, when the government goes too long without being seen to be “effective” or at least seen to be “doing something”, its the government that takes the hit in terms of voter affection, even if its the opposition that’s doing the bloody minded obstruction.

    I predicted a 54.x TPP result at the next election a while back. Feel free to humiliate me when the time comes, but if I’m right, then I’ll be insufferable 🙂

  2. cud chewer

    Wow. 26% think Telstra will actually run the NBN. Never was a poll so well chosen to expose the ignorance of ordinary people.

  3. Grog

    [I’m very surprised by the figures.]

    Agreed. They make very little sense given the economy.

  4. Oz

    Those issue questions are devastating for Labor. I’m very surprised by the figures.

  5. Gary Bruce

    The problem for the Libs is that this could be the bedrock for Labor. If after the media blitz on an issue which favours them and this is the best they can do, the Libs are in real strife.

  6. David Richards

    Less talk and a little more action, baby

    It does show the folly of chasing the senile dementia crowd… they always fly back home to the Tories.

    If only Rudd and the ALP had actually changed the direction of the Austanic away from the far right Howard course. All Rudd has done is hit the autopilot and give speeches.

  7. glengyron

    Fuelwatch and Foodwatch were both piss poor responses to genuine concern in the electorate… if they could actually come up with a policy for those issues (unlike the ‘Hollowmen’ policies of the past) they could make some headway there.

    Not to mention inflation forecasts aren’t that bad (interest rates will creep back up that list before long).

    Looks like no one knows what the NBN is about. The Libs should turn up the FUDD machine on that one.