Via The Oz and Newspoll comes some specific Qld marginal seat polling undertaken in the six electorates of Dawson, Flynn, Bowman, Dickson, Longman and Herbert. The average two party preferred in these marginals was given as 54/46 to the ALP.
That equates to an average swing of 2.7% to Labor in these six electorates (The Oz has it at 2.9 but that’s not what I get), which should put the Qld wide swing at the moment something in the order of 3-4% or more. If a party receives a given swing at an election, that swing is usually smallest in their own safe seats, largest in the safe seats of their opposition, with the size of the swing in the marginal seats falling somewhere in the middle.
If we use the last election as an example and measure the different swings in certain categories of seats, it tells the story.
So a swing of 2.7% in the marginals in Qld should equate to a slightly larger Qld wide swing.
Morgan released a tidbit of info in their usual face to face polling release about a telephone poll they took over November 11/12 that had the two party preferred slashed to 52/48 from a small sample of 573. If we feed that into our Pollytrend charts, we get:
However, without having the primary vote details I can’t calculate the poll averages – so we’ll use the result for our trend charts but not the averages.
Over the weekend, the Greens also released a small bit of polling they commissioned by Galaxy on public perceptions of emissions trading. Rather than simply repeat what Andrew Norton has said about this – since I agree completely with him – I’ll simply point you in his direction.