The first poll to measure Abbott and Rudd head to head on political qualities is Essential Report, this week coming in with the primaries running 46 (down 1) / 34 (down 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 58/42 the same way – steady from last week. The Greens are on 9 (up 1) while the broad “Others” are on 11 (up 1). This comes from a two week rolling sample of 1922, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.2% mark. Because this is a two week sample consisting of one week of Turnbull and one of Abbott, it’s a bit transitional and we won’t get our first full Abbott Only Essential Report until next week.
Essential also asked additional questions, looking at the “Abbott Effect”, Workchoices, the ETS and political qualities of each leader.These additional questions ran off a sample of 1017, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 3.1% mark.
Does the election of Tony Abbott as leader of the Liberal Party make you more likely or less likely to vote Liberal?
It’s all pretty partisan aligned here with Labor and Greens being less likely to vote for the Libs under Abbott and Coalition voters being more likely.In terms of the total population, the ascension of Tony Abbott has resulted in a total net change of 12% of the electorate now being less likely to vote for the Coalition.
On the cross-tabs, Essential says:
Females were more likely than males to indicate that the election of Tony Abbott as leader of the Liberal Party will make no difference to their vote (43% v 35%).
Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd?
Since we last asked this question in June 2009, Rudd has lost points on qualities such as understanding the problems facing Australia (-8%), demanding (-7%) and hard-working (-6%). Rudd has gained points in terms of being complacent (+10%), too inflexible (+6%), out of touch with ordinary people (+4%) and narrow-minded (+4%).
Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott?
On the cross-tabs we have:
Males were slightly more likely than females to think that Abbott is superficial (46% v 39%), honest (34% v 28%), visionary (37% v 32%) and down to earth (48% v 43%).
Do you think Malcolm Turnbull should now resign from Parliament, stay in parliament on the backbench until the next election or challenge for the leadership again before the next election?
Coalition voters were more likely to think that Turnbull should stay in parliament on the backbench (62%), while Green (28%) and Labor (18%) voters were more likely to think Turnbull should challenge again for the leadership.
Males were more likely to think Turnbull should resign (20%) while females were more likely to indicate that they don’t know what Turnbull should do (29%).
Whose position on the ETS and tackling climate change do you most agree with?
This is the most wide open result I’ve seen on an ETS question framed like this. The cross-tabs say:
The results followed party lines – Labor voters were more likely to agree with Labor’s position (49%), Coalition voters were more likely to agree with the Coalition (67%) and Green voters were more likely to agree with the Green’s position (80%). 30% of Labor voters, 21% of Coalition voters and 9% of Green voters don’t know which position they agree with most.
Males were more likely to agree with the position of Abbott and the Coalition (31%), while females were more likely to indicate that they don’t know (36%).
People aged 55 years and over were more likely to agree with Abbott and the Coalition regarding climate change and an ETS (42%).
The new Liberal leader Tony Abbott says that the Rudd Government went too far with their industrial relations laws when they got rid of the Howard Government’s WorkChoices laws. Do you agree or disagree?
Results followed party lines – 76% of Coalition voters agree and 74% of Labor voters disagree with Abbott’s statements regarding the Rudd Government’s industrial relations reforms. Green voters were more likely to disagree with Abbott (62%).
Males were more likely than females to agree with Abbott’s statement (41% v 33%). People aged 55 years and over were also more likely to agree with Abbott (47%).