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State Polling

Feb 24, 2010

A new NSW state Newspoll via The Oz comes in with the primaries running 44 (steady)/ 30 (up 4) to the Coalition, washing out into a two party preferred of 57/43 the same way – up 2 for the ALP since the last poll in November/December. The Greens are on 12 (down a whopping 5) while the broad “Others” are on 14 (up 1). This comes from a sample of 1278, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.7% mark.

So while New South Welshman are still apparently wanting to kick the ALP to within an inch of its life next election, it also looks like Keneally might be convincing them to wear some ugg boots in the process, so it wont hurt so much.

The big change here wasn’t so much in the vote, but in the personal metrics of the Premier, with Keneally pulling the satisfaction rate up 7 points to 41, reducing the dissatisfaction by 27 points and lifting the overall net satisfaction up from minus 19 to plus 15. O’Farrell on the other hand remained fairly static, losing 3 points on the satisfaction to 41, dissatisfaction remaining on 30 and the overall net satisfaction sitting on 11 (down 3).

The other movement this week came in the beauty contest that is better premier, with Keneally pulling it up 5 points to 40 while O’Farrell fell 3 points to 31.

You can see the dynamics at play with the usual charts that come in like this:

nswprimsfeb nswtppfeb

nswminorsfeb

premsatfeb nswopsatfeb

NSWnetsatsfeb nswbpfeb

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15 comments

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15 thoughts on “NSW Newspoll – Keneally up but same old story

  1. Bogdanovist

    I don’t think you’re right David. At this point an inanimate carbon rod could win, O’Farrell is doing exactly what he needs to do to win, and that is basically not say very much (and more importantly get his extreme right wing quiet). The only reason the Liberals didn’t win last time around was that they were too vocal on issues like massive public service job cuts. They won’t be making that mistake again, regardless of what they might be planning.

  2. David

    The Libs will have to do better than O’Farrell he is unelectable, Ms Keneally is a shoe in thus far with 12mths to go, its there for the Libs however but they will need to move soon or they will blow it again. O’Farrell can’t win it for them, blind Freddy can see that.

  3. gerard

    Nietzsche:
    Insanity in individuals is something rare – but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule.
    With individuals I am sure many samples and exceptions can be made for shallowness on both sides. Frankly I rather hear and look at Keneally than at Barry’s slagging and miserable profile.

    http://oosterman.wordpress.com/

  4. SBH

    jesus, maybe Neitzsche was onto something when he slagged off democracy

  5. Durutticolumn

    JimmD I thought we all agreed she has no merit and if you knew of the ladies of whom I speak you would know it has nothing to do with appearance but what they represent. Shallow voices endlessly sprouting meaningless words

  6. Barking

    Green vote around 12 actually sits better with a more realistic long term solid growth rather than a, “We have to get rid of this rabble mob”, type of event. One of the things the Altona byelection showed that when going for a ‘message vote’, punters don’t use subtle techniques, they (80%) just vote for the Libs.

  7. JimmyD

    Geez, Durutti, don’t judge Keneally by her appearance or anything… we wouldn’t want to perpetuate the double standards in this country and NOT judge a female politician on her merits, but rather her appearance.

    You’re appalling.

  8. Durutticolumn

    Barry’s rating might be because if he kept a lower profile he would be underground. I expect the Libs to be putting his face on milk cartoon with “have you seen this man” writ large on them I think he might have to be introduced to his Lib MP colleagues because I am pretty sure they have no idea who he is or if he is even in the country. I can’t wait for the election see all that sussex street scum washed away and we have the added bonus of a Transport Minister called Gladys to look forward to.
    Kristina is appalling she looks like one of those Sydney eastern Suburbs real estate women.

  9. Sam Bauers

    @Bogdanovist

    I’m not sure if it’s a “soft vote”, you can see that The Greens polled around 9% at the last election which is close to, but a little higher than the poll average prior to it. The jump in support mostly comes with a corresponding fall in Labor support. We really have no way of telling if it is overcooked due to the polling process until the next election (and even then we won’t know anything for certain). Also, as I said, people get reminded that The Greens exist when they actually vote, so doing the same in polls seems reasonable. It certainly doesn’t help the accuracy of the poll to pretend that they don’t exist.

  10. Sam Bauers

    Ah, ignore my last comment, I see what I did there.

  11. Bogdanovist

    Thanks Sam, I was thinking of some kind of change to the polling when I said ‘artificial’ (rather than meaning it as a pejorative, like ‘inflated’), so that makes sense. On the other hand, the ‘Others’ vote seems pretty stable when you compare the pre and post election polls, which you’d expect to have dropped given this change. Either that or there is a portion of the Greens vote which is very soft and requires a reminder that the Greens exist in order to extract it in a poll?

  12. Sam Bauers

    Hang on… The Greens drop 5 and the ALP are steady, yet the ALP go up 2 in the 2PP? That’s a little counter intuitive.

  13. Sam Bauers

    @Bogdanovist

    The Greens were an “other” before the last state election. So when asked for a preference respondents had to choose “other”, then mention the Greens by name.

    After the last state election, the Greens were added to the list of parties to choose from up front, along with Labor and Liberal/National.

    This resulted in a jump up to the current levels, which might seem artificial, but it is probably a truer indication of voting intention (or at least fairer treatment) than previously considering that The Greens appear on ballots in every district at state elections.

  14. Psephos

    [so KKK might be enjoying a very brief honeymoon.]

    Equally she might be enjoying a very long honeymoon.

  15. Bogdanovist

    Looks like there was a big jump of dissatisfied with Premier going to undecided, so KKK might be enjoying a very brief honeymoon.

    One thing that stands out about the Green vote is that is makes a step up from ~7% pre election to ~13 after it, with fluctuations rather than any real trends apart from that sharp transition. Do you have any theories about that? It seems rather artificial?