From comments yesterday, it might be a good time to have a bit of a squiz at how the Greens have been performing in the vote estimates over the last 12 months. The common theme with the Greens has been on how their vote has been growing substantially over recent times, and while that is certainly happening in some states at the state election level, federally the growth has been much more tempered over the last year.
Rather than use every poll result from every pollster and end up with a whole lot of noise – what we’ll do is take a broader look at any trends that may be apparent by using monthly averages for each pollster on their vote estimates. The Morgan poll in this mix is their face-to-face poll – the monthly averages have been rounded to the nearest half a percent.
The first thing that pops up is how phone polls are more favourable than non-phone polls for the Greens. In fact, over the period the phone polls have been , on average, over 1.5% more favourable to the Greens than their non-phone poll counterparts.
We can see this better by comparing the phone pollster average, the non-phone pollster average and the all pollster average (click to enlarge):
While all pollsters have shown a trend towards the Greens over the last 12 months, the phone polls have it as around a 2% gain, while the non-phone polls come in as around a 1% gain.
On the demographic front – and for this we’ll use just the Newspoll quarterly aggregates – it gets a little more complicated. While we can see a clear but relatively small trend in the national level polling estimates, the demographic cross tabs are not showing the increase as coming from any particular place – apart from recent gains in the 18-34 year group and strong recent growth in NSW.
First up – by State and geography:
Next up by age and gender:
Finally, it’s worth putting the vote trends of the Greens in some perspective: Newspoll monthly averages of the primary votes of all parties.